Beyond COP30: Climate Action in the Subnational

In the post-COP30 world, the transition away from fossil fuels has, once again, been pushed to the margins. With no official roadmap for phasing out this non-renewable energy source, climate action — globally and nationally — has stalled. As the world edges closer to the 1.5°C limit set under the Paris Agreement, subnational governments are emerging as the actors most willing to confront the challenge.

Data from Global Climate Action from Cities, Regions and Businesses (2021) shows that leadership on climate action has steadily shifted from national governments towards states, cities, regions and provinces.

COP30 — prematurely framed by its Presidency as the “implementation COP” — made that shift explicit. Its failure to secure agreement on a fossil-fuel phase-out revealed that implementation now lies in the hands of sub-national actors.

Why COP30 Fell Short

Held in Belém, COP30 was expected to deliver the long-awaited global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels. There were several signs this might finally happen — from the Paris Agreement’s emphasis on deep emissions cuts, to COP28’s breakthrough in Dubai, where countries agreed, for the first time, on language calling for a “transition away from fossil fuels”. Research studies warning of the worsening climate crisis only strengthened expectations. And the clearest signal came from COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago himself, who opened the summit declaring: “The fossil fuel era is drawing to a close.”

But after 12 hours of negotiations, the promise evaporated. Countries failed to reach consensus on phasing out fossil fuels, and the final pledge omitted any reference to them — let alone a roadmap.

In the closing statements, the UN's climate chief, Simon Stiell, acknowledged the challenges that countries have faced in getting a deal. "We knew this COP would take place in stormy political waters. Denial, division and geopolitics have dealt international cooperation some heavy blows this year," he said.

Attendee of COP30, Nehmat Kaur, Director of Under2 Coalition and Governments and Policy, Climate Group, comments, “In the past two years, the fossil-fuel agenda hasn’t had much visibility in the COP process. COP30 changed that. President Lula put the fossil-fuel transition roadmap at the centre of the summit from the very start, using the Leaders’ Summit to set the tone.

Commenting on the Climate Pledge adopted, she adds, “It became clear early on that this would be a defining issue — not only in the negotiations, but also in the political voices that rallied around the agenda throughout the two weeks of COP30. So when the topic was excluded from the language in the final decision, it was disappointing.”

Various climate activists and researchers echoed this disappointment. In a press statement, Dr Champa Patel, Executive Director of Governments and Policy at Climate Group, responded to the outcome of the COP30 negotiations, stating, “It is hard not to feel disappointed. At a moment when the world urgently needed clarity on the transition away from fossil fuels, COP30 failed to rise to the challenge. Real transformation requires clear timelines, fairness at the centre, and the finance and cooperation to make it possible — none of which materialised.”

Subnational Climate Action

While the final text removed “fossil fuels, it elevated another term: “sub-national.

For the first time, COP formally recognised the role of real-economy actors, such as investors, private-sector companies, and subnational governments, in accelerating climate action.

Kaur explains, “At the end of the day, implementation is quite subnational. Players from the private sector actually play a big role in this transition away from fossil fuels.”

She notes that countries like the Netherlands and Colombia, which recognise the importance of the subnational, invited these actors to join the Belém Declaration for fossil-fuel transition, signed independently of COP30.

Research from the Global Climate Action dataset shows that subnational governments represent over half the global economy and nearly two billion people — giving them the capacity to deliver emissions cuts larger than the EU’s annual output.

The Under2 Coalition’s 2025 report found that 73 per cent of its members now have Subnational Transition Plans (STPs), translating global goals into local strategies.

Kaur illustrates the importance of the subnational via the absence of the US in COP30, “The US did not take part this year; however, those leadership gaps were filled in by subnational actors at the city, as well as state and regional level, coming to attend. We had some of the most ambitious actors from the US take part—California Governor Gavin Newsom, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, and other strong officials from Maryland, etc. These state-level leaders are actively involved in climate action. California is one of the founding governments of the Emerald Dome Coalition.”

Subnational mobilisation also shaped COP30’s Global Climate Action Agenda, which drew participation from thousands of local and regional governments. Brazil’s COP Presidency launched a first-of-its-kind plan to promote multilevel, multisectoral governance for implementing the Paris Agreement.

“This kind of participation goes to show that climate action discourse is still alive and kicking on the subnational level, she adds.

India: A Case Study in Subnational Potential

India offers several examples of successful climate solutions. The National Solar Mission’s evolution from a 100 GW target in 2022 to 300 GW by 2030 shows how rapid progress can scale.

At the state level, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand have established research bodies such as the Just Transition Task Force and the Just Transition Research Centre at IIT Kanpur, which map livelihood shifts in coal-dependent regions.

She adds, “These types of research institutions point to vast opportunities for economic diversification, helping fossil-fuel-dependent economies invest in emerging sectors like renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, ecotourism, green manufacturing and vocational training. The possibilities are wide-ranging — and so is the scope for building resilient new industries.”

In Maharashtra, the Maharashtra State Action Plan on Climate Change (MSAPCC) outlines the state’s climate goals, including a target to raise renewable energy in the power mix from 16 per cent in 2020 to 50 per cent by 2030 “I think there is a huge role for sub-national governments to play a transformative actor kind of role in this transition.” Still, Kaur warns of challenges, “In a country as big as India, the scale of things does make transitioning out of fossil fuels quite challenging.”

She says, “Distributed and decentralised decision-making at the state level is key to unlocking this transition. India has a federal structure where the national government sets long-term policy signals, but it’s the states that deliver them. A city is too small, the national too big — the state level is where projects are consolidated and make investment and financial sense. That’s why future strategy should focus on the state and regional level.”

Recent data from the Climate Risk Index 2026, released on the sidelines of COP30, shows India has fallen 13 spots to rank 23rd in the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI).

India has slipped from a “high performer” to a “medium performer” mainly because it remains heavily reliant on coal. The report acknowledges India’s firm long-term commitments and ambitious renewable targets. However, it highlights a core contradiction: India still has no coal-exit timeline and continues to auction new coal blocks.

The CCPI urges a time-bound coal phase-down leading to a complete phase-out, and calls for redirecting fossil-fuel subsidies toward decentralised, community-owned renewable energy systems.

Thus, the cost of inaction is far too high for India.

“India is already facing severe climate impacts — the Climate Risk Index ranks it as the sixth most vulnerable country. Every fraction of a degree and every policy signal matters because the cost of inaction is simply too high. It’s not just about infrastructure losses; it’s about impacts on labour, productivity, agriculture and the wider economy. We can no longer separate climate policy from economic policy — the business case for a clean, sustainable transition is clear, and essential for a just and equitable future,” explains Kaur.

The years from 2020 to 2030, known as the ‘Climate Decade’, will determine whether the world avoids the worst climate tipping points. COP30 failed to produce a roadmap for a fossil-fuel transition, but the summit made one reality unmistakable: the centre of climate action is shifting.

As national negotiations falter, states, regions and cities are stepping forward with the ambition, innovation and political will needed to drive the transition. The future of climate action — in India and globally — will not be defined solely by multilateral consensus, but by the strength of subnational leadership and its ability to turn climate ambition into lived reality.