Driven By Innovation, Biologics And AI, India’s Pharma Market May More Than Double To USD 130 Billion By 2030: ASSOCHAM

India’s pharmaceutical market is projected to more than double over the next five years, reaching between USD 120 billion and USD 130 billion by 2030 from an estimated USD 55 billion in 2025. At the same time, pharmaceutical exports, which crossed USD 30 billion in 2024-25, are expected to rise sharply and potentially touch USD 75-80 billion by the end of the decade.

The projections, outlined in the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (ASSOCHAM) knowledge paper ‘Outlook on the Indian Pharmaceutical Sector’ released recently, point to a significant shift in the country's pharmaceutical ecosystem — from being primarily known as a supplier of affordable generic medicines to emerging as a global hub for innovation, biologics, biosimilars, and advanced therapies.

The report notes that the country accounts for nearly 20% of the world’s generic medicine supply by volume and fulfils more than half of the vaccine procurement requirements of UNICEF. Over the past two decades, India has earned recognition as the “pharmacy of the world”, supplying affordable medicines to both developed and developing countries.

However, the report argued that the next phase of growth will be markedly different from the previous one. While generic medicines will continue to remain important, future expansion is expected to be powered by scientific innovation, biologics manufacturing, artificial intelligence-enabled drug discovery, cell and gene therapies, and a stronger research ecosystem.

In the foreword to the report, ASSOCHAM Secretary General Saurabh Sanyal says India’s rise as a global pharmaceutical power has been built on a combination of manufacturing strength, scientific capability, and supportive public policy.

Going forward, he notes, the industry would need to invest more aggressively in research and development, nurture specialised talent, strengthen partnerships between academia and industry, and align itself with global regulatory standards.

The report has identified several global developments that are likely to create unprecedented opportunities for Indian pharmaceutical companies.

One of the most significant is the approaching “patent cliff” in biologic medicines. Between 2025 and 2029, biologic products generating more than USD 40 billion in annual global revenues are expected to lose patent protection.

Once exclusivity ends, manufacturers can introduce biosimilars — highly similar versions of original biologic medicines — at lower costs.

This transition is expected to open a major growth avenue for Indian pharmaceutical companies, many of which have already begun investing in biosimilar research and manufacturing capabilities. According to the report, the global biosimilars market, estimated at USD 39.6 billion in 2025, is expected to expand nearly four-fold to USD 151.6 billion by 2033.

The growing demand for advanced therapies, including precision medicine, immunotherapies, and cell and gene therapies, is also expected to reshape the industry. At the same time, rapid advances in artificial intelligence are transforming how drugs are discovered, tested, and developed.

Traditionally, bringing a new drug to market required years of laboratory research and billions of dollars in investment. AI-driven platforms are now helping researchers identify promising drug candidates more quickly, reduce development timelines, and improve the efficiency of clinical research, it says.

The report suggests that Indian companies that successfully integrate artificial intelligence into research and development could gain a significant competitive advantage in global markets.

Another major opportunity lies in India’s expanding bioeconomy, which has already crossed the USD 150-billion mark and is projected to reach USD 300 billion by 2030. Biopharmaceuticals, biologics, and biotechnology-driven innovations are expected to account for a substantial share of this growth.

Government initiatives such as Biopharma SHAKTI, Bio-RIDE, and the BioE3 Policy are expected to strengthen the country's biotechnology ecosystem by creating stronger linkages between research institutions, manufacturing facilities, and commercial enterprises, according to the report.

“These initiatives could help India move beyond contract manufacturing and become a centre for the development and commercialisation of next-generation therapies,” it says.

Nevertheless, the report cautions that achieving these ambitions will require sustained investments and structural reforms.

India’s expenditure on pharmaceutical research and development remains significantly lower than that of leading innovation-driven economies.

Experts have repeatedly argued that while India has excelled in reverse engineering and generic drug manufacturing, it must now build stronger capabilities in original drug discovery and translational research.

To address these challenges, the report outlines five strategic priorities for “India Pharma 2030”.

These include strengthening regulatory systems and quality standards to ensure global competitiveness; improving financing mechanisms for scientific innovation; establishing leadership in biologics, biosimilars, and cell and gene therapy manufacturing; building a future-ready workforce equipped with advanced scientific and technological skills; and improving domestic access to innovation while positioning India as a healthcare partner for countries across the Global South.

The report argues that regulatory excellence will be particularly important as Indian companies seek greater access to highly regulated markets in North America, Europe, and other advanced economies. Harmonisation of standards with global regulatory agencies could improve trust in Indian products and enhance export opportunities.

Beyond economics, the report suggests that India’s pharmaceutical growth story has broader strategic significance. “As geopolitical tensions encourage countries to diversify supply chains and reduce dependence on a limited number of manufacturing hubs, India is increasingly being viewed as a reliable alternative destination for pharmaceutical production.”

If supported by consistent policy measures, investments in innovation, and stronger research capabilities, India could emerge not only as a leading supplier of affordable medicines but also as a global centre for pharmaceutical innovation, biologics manufacturing, and advanced therapeutic development, it says.