Bihar’s Growing Crisis of Muslim Representation: How Polarisation, Party Strategy, AIMIM Shaped 2025 Mandate

The results of the Bihar Assembly elections show that representation for almost every caste has increased in proportion to their population, except for Muslims. In the Seemanchal region, the Manihari tribal-reserved seat saw Muslim Adivasi candidate Saif Ali Khan contesting, and he received around five thousand votes. However, more than his own defeat, he is troubled by the declining representation of Muslims.

Saif Ali Khan says, “Just look, those who were 10 have become 25. Rajputs have gone from 18 to 32, Bhumihars from 17 to 23, and Brahmins from 12 to 14. Kurmis rose from 10 to 25, and Kushwahas from 16 to 23.” He pointed out that representation across nearly all castes has grown, while the number of Muslim MLAs continues to shrink with each election, dropping from 19 to 11 this time. He argued that Muslim political leadership is steadily weakening and believes the community itself bears much of the responsibility, noting that several incumbent Muslim MLAs were defeated by their own supposed leaders.

 Although the number of Yadav MLAs fell the most compared to the last election, from 55 to 28, almost halved, even then their share remains close to their population of 14.26 per cent. But despite Muslims being nearly 18 per cent of the population, their representation in the 243-seat Assembly has fallen to just 4.53 per cent this time—three times lower than what population proportion would imply.

On the other hand, the castes with the highest MLA representation relative to population are Rajputs and Bhumihars, who constitute only 3.45 and 2.86 per cent respectively, yet their MLA share is 4 and 3.3 times higher. After them, Kurmi and Kushwaha have gained the most, with representation 3.6 and 2.3 times their population share. Dalits, despite being 19.65 per cent of the population, could not move beyond the 38 reserved seats, meaning their representation remains 1.26 times lower than proportional.

The Promise — and Failure — of Proportional Representation

After the 2023 caste survey in Bihar, caste and population figures moved to the centre of political strategy for all parties. The push for proportional representation had begun, and it seemed likely that seat allocation would mirror population share, leading to balanced representation in the Assembly.

However, a closer reading of the data reveals that this promise of proportionality is politically misleading, particularly for the Muslim community. A group whose electoral influence has long shaped power dynamics has now seen its political presence shrink to its lowest level since Independence.

It is this decline in Muslim leadership that troubles Saif Ali Khan the most. Yet he also believes that Muslim leaders themselves bear much of the responsibility — a claim whose validity this report goes on to examine.

Long-Term Decline in Muslim MLAs

Apart from a single by-election, Asaduddin Owaisi and his party, the AIMIM (All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen), began contesting elections in Bihar only in 2020. Yet data from the past two decades shows a steady decline in Muslim MLAs. In February 2005, 24 Muslim candidates won; by the October 2005 re-election this had fallen to 16. The number rose to 19 in 2009 and 24 in 2015, before dropping again to 19 in 2020 and collapsing to 11 in the 2025 election.

A research report by Lost Muslim Heritage of Bihar notes that there were once 90–95 seats from which Muslim candidates routinely won. It traces the erosion of this base to the post-1990 period, when the Congress party became marginal in the state.

AIMIM’s Role in Key Defeats

But Saif Ali Khan blames Owaisi and the AIMIM for the collapse to 11 Muslim MLAs this time. He argues: “If a big leader like Mahboob Alam lost in Balrampur, it is only because of Owaisi. Shakeel Ahmad Khan lost in Kadwa because the AIMIM candidate polarised the traditional Hindu vote that Congress used to receive, pushing it towards the NDA. My question is simple — what kind of Muslim leadership does Owaisi want? Where a Muslim is winning, defeat him and help elect a BJP MLA? Or replace Muslim MLAs of other parties with AIMIM’s own? Is this how he wants to build Muslim leadership?”

Balrampur is cited repeatedly because Mahboob Alam, a two-term MLA, is widely believed to have lost due to AIMIM’s entry. In 2020 he won by more than 50,000 votes; this time he was defeated by just 1,318 votes by the NDA’s Sangeeta Devi of the LJP(R). Notably, AIMIM’s Mohammad Adil Hasan finished second, trailing Devi by only 389 votes. The three candidates secured 80,459 (Sangeeta Devi), 80,070 (Adil Hasan) and 79,141 (Mahboob Alam) votes.

AIMIM had never fielded a candidate in Balrampur before. Analysts argue that its entry split the Muslim vote — most of it shifting towards AIMIM — fracturing the support that previously consolidated behind Alam.

A similar pattern is cited in Kadwa, where Congress MLA Shakeel Ahmad Khan, a two-term representative since 2015, was defeated by JD(U)’s Chandra Goswami by 18,368 votes. AIMIM finished third with 11,557 votes. Observers say AIMIM’s presence triggered polarisation among Congress’ traditional Hindu voters, who drifted away.

Seemanchal: The Core of the Contest

Both Balrampur and Kadwa lie in Katihar district in the Seemanchal region, home to most of Bihar’s Muslim population. The Seemanchal belt comprises Kishanganj, Araria, Katihar and Purnia. According to the Bihar Minority Commission, Muslims account for 67 per cent of the population in Kishanganj, 42 per cent in Katihar, 41 per cent in Araria and 37 per cent in Purnia.

Owaisi mostly contests in this region. In 2020, AIMIM contested only 21 of Bihar’s 243 seats—16 in Seemanchal. AIMIM won five seats—Jokihat, Bahadurganj, Kochadhaman, Amour and Baisi—all from Seemanchal.

This time AIMIM fielded 25 candidates, 15 from Seemanchal, and again won five seats—the same ones as last time.

Vote Splits and Margins

On Seemanchal’s 24 seats, the Mahagathbandhan fielded Congress in 12, RJD in 9, VIP in 2, and CPI-ML in 1. NDA fielded BJP in 11, JD(U) in 10, and LJP(R) in three seats. Previously, Seemanchal’s 24 seats saw NDA hold 12 (8 BJP, 4 JD(U)), Mahagathbandhan 7 (Congress 5, RJD and CPI-ML 1 each), and AIMIM 5. At that time Congress and RJD contested 11 seats each. This time NDA’s seats increased from 12 to 14 and the Mahagathbandhan fell from seven to five.

In multiple constituencies, AIMIM’s vote share exceeded the margin of defeat for Mahagathbandhan’s Muslim candidates.

In Purnia, of seven seats, Kasba was the only one where the Mahagathbandhan fielded a Muslim candidate—Irfan Alam—who lost to LJP(R)’s Nitesh Kumar Singh by 12,875 votes. AIMIM came third with 35,309 votes. Similar patterns held in Balrampur and Pranpur. AIMIM votes exceeded the deficit of Mahagathbandhan’s Muslim candidates.

On the Thakurganj Assembly seat in Kishanganj, Janata Dal (United) candidate Gopal Kumar Agrawal defeated RJD’s Saud Alam by a substantial margin of 25,207 votes. On this seat, AIMIM’s Ghulam Hasnain secured the second position, receiving 76,421 votes.

Historically, the five seats AIMIM now wins have elected Muslim MLAs consistently since 2000.

Structural Political Shifts

MD Umar Ashraf, founder of Lost Muslim Heritage of Bihar, argues that the AIMIM helped the NDA in every seat it contested, apart from the five it won. He also blames the Mahagathbandhan’s attitude towards Muslims for the decline.

He says, “The parties Muslims vote for — the RJD and especially Congress — did not contest seriously. From the start, they projected a negative attitude. For example, putting forward Mukesh Sahni as Deputy Chief Minister signalled that despite such a large Muslim population, Muslims were not considered for the post. When pressure finally forced them to announce one Muslim Deputy CM, it was already too late. Owaisi and the NDA had capitalised on it.”

Ashraf also highlights poor ticket allocation — fielding Tikka Khan from Biharsharif instead of Tekari, dropping sitting MLA Kamran from Govindpur, and denying a ticket to MD Aftab in Aroi.

Supriy Ranjan, Assistant Professor of Political Science at GITAM University and associated with People’s Pulse, agrees Owaisi played a role but calls the decision to project Sahni as Deputy Chief Minister a major strategic blunder. He argues, “Seemanchal consistently elects the highest number of Muslim MLAs. The Hindu–Muslim divide was already heightened. In that setting, naming Sahni angered many Muslim voters who felt that, despite their demographic and electoral weight, a Muslim Deputy CM was never even considered. This sense of being taken for granted pushed many towards AIMIM.”

Ranjan adds that over the past decade, political currents have shifted sharply towards Hindutva. Secular parties, he says, responded by sidelining, becoming reluctant to field Muslim candidates. While the BJP built a consistent Hindu–Muslim narrative, secular parties gradually retreated, creating a political vacuum that AIMIM stepped in to fill.

Although the BJP typically drives Hindu–Muslim polarisation, analysts believe that in Bihar, AIMIM’s presence intensified this polarisation to the BJP’s benefit.

Ticket Distribution and Declining Space for Muslim Candidates

The BJP does not field Muslim candidates, leaving the burden of representation on secular parties. In 2020, the RJD contested 144 seats but fielded only 16 Muslim candidates; Congress fielded 11 out of 70; and the Left three. Together, the Mahagathbandhan fielded just 11.93 per cent Muslim candidates — about seven percentage points below population share. This time, the RJD fielded 18 out of 143, Congress 10 out of 60, and the Left two — a total of 30 Muslim candidates, or 12.35 per cent.

Within the NDA, only JD(U) fields Muslim candidates regularly, yet it reduced its Muslim nominees from 11 in the last election to four this time.

A Historical Perspective

In undivided Bihar (including Jharkhand), 40 seats were reserved for Muslims. Two Muslim-led parties — the Muslim Independent Party (led by Barrister Mohammad Yunus) and the Muslim United Party — dominated. In the 1937 provincial elections, despite a Congress–Muslim League understanding, Muslim Independent won 15 of the 40 seats, Muslim United six, Congress five, and the Muslim League none. After the Muslim United Party merged with the League in 1938, the League swept 34 of the 40 reserved seats in 1946. After Independence, most League leaders joined Congress in 1952, and for decades Muslim voters and leaders remained aligned with Congress until the Bhagalpur riots, after which they shifted towards socialist parties.

For many years, Congress fielded the largest number of Muslim candidates. Former Bihar Congress president Kaukab Qadri notes, “From 1952 to 2000, each district had one or two Muslim candidates — sometimes two from the same seat. Muslims could not be ignored. As a result, a section of Muslims always won. But Congress has now confined Muslim representation to the Purnia division, that is Seemanchal. In Magadh, Patna, Saran, Munger and Bhagalpur divisions, Congress’ entire Muslim leadership has vanished.”

The data shows a widening gap between the Muslim share of Bihar’s population and their representation in the Assembly — now at its lowest since Independence. While AIMIM’s entry split Muslim votes in key Seemanchal constituencies, the deeper causes lie in secular parties reducing Muslim tickets, rising Hindutva-driven polarisation, strategic missteps such as the Deputy CM projection, and the long-term erosion of Muslim leadership outside Seemanchal. The result is a historic contraction of Muslim legislative presence, reflecting not just electoral arithmetic but a structural shift in Bihar’s political landscape.