Assembly Elections 2026: High-Stakes Clash That Will Shape Assam’s Future

The campaign season for the Assam assembly elections has officially begun, with the Election Commission of India announcing the schedule for the next assembly elections in the state. According to the schedule, the elections will be held in a single phase on 9th April, with the counting of votes scheduled for the 4th of May. Unlike the elections held last year, the entire process will be completed before the advent of the Bihu festival.

The incumbent chief minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma of the BJP, is looking to retain his position, while the Indian National Congress is trying to recover lost ground under the leadership of Gaurav Gogoi, the party’s state president.

The Grand Old Party has so far announced two lists of candidates, covering a total of 65 constituencies. The BJP, which is heading the ruling coalition, is yet to announce the list of candidates, while the All India United Democratic Front, led by Badruddin Ajmal, has announced the first list of nine candidates.

Just a few hours ahead of the announcement of polls, the Assam government advanced a programme from 6.30 pm to 2 pm at where several announcements were made by senior state officials as the CM as at another event with union home minister Amit Shah. The announcements included honorariums for Bodo musicians, artists, trainers, and expert committee members who participated in the Bagurumba Dwhou event organised on January 17 in Guwahati. The state announced a ₹19-crore deal between ASRLM Assam and NDDB Dairy Services to set up women-owned milk producers’ organisations in Cachar, Hailakandi, and Sribhumi districts to support 16,000 women from 400 villages, and launched AI- and GIS-enabled “RUDRA” mobile app to allow citizens to report and geo-tag potholes. It must be remembered that the CM had announced the development of this app in January 2025 for swift road maintenance.

What is at stake?

After a decade of BJP hegemony in Assam, the upcoming election is set to determine whether the party can further consolidate its political control on the region. Since assuming power in 2016, the BJP has continued to expand its support base among various castes, tribes, and communities, many of whom were traditionally considered to be the Congress’s core vote bank. However, the political environment in the region is charged with underlying tensions, including those emanating from identity politics and communal fault lines.

While the government’s developmental credentials are often touted, it is not always obvious on the ground. There are, however, signs of discontent among the population at large, including the prevailing unemployment among the younger population and economic stagnation in rural areas.

This made the Sarma government transfer ₹9,000 each to women from around 40 lakh families and distribute appointment letters to 5,690 new government recruits at a ceremony in Khanapara on March 12, with the chief minister announcing that 65,000 more jobs would follow and claiming his administration has already provided 1.64 lakh government positions during its tenure. The BJP had promised one lakh government jobs annually during the 2021 assembly campaign but later clarified that the figure applied to the entire five-year term. Despite the party’s public confidence, there are signs of discontent among sections of the electorate, particularly over the lack of industries and employment opportunities.

The BJP is banking heavily on Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma dominating the public narrative as the state moves towards the 2026 election, projecting cultural assertion and strong leadership as the centrepiece of its campaign. Alongside this confidence, critics say the party continues to rely on polarisation, with debates around immigration, land ownership, religious identity and the protection of indigenous rights becoming increasingly prominent. Eviction drives affecting Muslim communities and controversies over names being removed from electoral rolls have added to the charged atmosphere. Opposition parties argue that such issues are being foregrounded to deepen anxieties over land and identity and consolidate support among Hindu voters.

At the heart of the political narrative is Sarma’s prolonged campaign against Assam Congress president Gaurav Gogoi. For more than two years, Sarma has repeatedly alleged that Gogoi travelled to Pakistan in 2013 at the invitation of the country’s intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence. Congress leaders have challenged the chief minister to present evidence or initiate legal action, dismissing the accusations as politically motivated.

The exchanges have become a regular feature with Gogoi often raising questions about governance and economic performance while Sarma counters by reviving the Pakistan allegation. Gogoi has in turn accused the chief minister of amassing vast tracts of land across Assam, claiming that such holdings should be investigated and redistributed to the landless if his party returns to power.

The intensifying clash between Sarma and Gogoi has turned the election into a deeply personal political contest. What may appear as routine campaign rhetoric draws from a rivalry that began more than a decade ago within the Congress itself. Before joining the BJP, Sarma was a senior minister in the Congress government led by the late Tarun Gogoi, Gaurav Gogoi’s father. The leadership struggle that followed the elder Gogoi’s tenure ultimately pushed Sarma out of the party, a break that reshaped Assam’s political landscape and laid the groundwork for one of the state’s most sharp political rivalry.

The Congress, once the dominant political force in Assam, is still struggling to reassert itself nearly a decade after losing power in 2016. Its presence on the ground appears muted, even as the party attempts to reposition itself through a mix of new candidates. The strategy suggests an effort at reinvention, but it also risks unsettling the party’s traditional cadre base that long defined its organisational strength. In some constituencies, the introduction of relatively new political faces, particularly in areas with strong cultural and historical sensitivities, could be seen either as an attempt at broader outreach or as a gamble that might face resistance.

The challenge for the Congress is not just electoral but existential. Over the past few years, several prominent leaders have drifted to the BJP, including former state party chief Bhupen Bora. Many of those who left directed criticism at current state Congress president Gaurav Gogoi, though party leaders have dismissed such accusations as typical rhetoric from politicians changing sides. Within the party, there is a growing acknowledgement that credibility remains its biggest hurdle. After years of organisational drift, voters often question the party’s absence from the political foreground.

Congress leaders say their campaign is focused on building a broad anti-BJP coalition while presenting the party as a more moderate and inclusive alternative. Issues such as unemployment, rising prices, allegations of corruption and the management of ethnic tensions form the core of its political messaging. Yet internal factions within the party continue to undermine these efforts. Several district units remain fractured, and tensions persist between long-time loyalists and recent entrants.

At the same time, the Congress seems to be counting on the performance of its allies as well - Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP), Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) and All Party Hill Leaders Conference (APHLC).

Regional parties occupy an uncertain position in Assam’s political landscape. The Asom Gana Parishad, once the torch-bearer of Assamese regionalism, now functions largely within the BJP-led alliance, with much of its independent ideological space absorbed by its larger partner. In contrast, newer formations such as Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad are attempting to channel a renewed form of Assamese sub-nationalism, particularly among younger voters and sections of the society who feel alienated from both national parties. Raijor Dal leader Akhil Gogoi remains a force, but is viewed with caution. He is continued to be admired for his activist politics but that brings an element of uncertainty with all those who are attempting to tie up with the party ahead of elections.

Meanwhile, the All India United Democratic Front is reassessing its political strategy as it is now a much weakened force in the state, unlike the previous elections. Their alliance with the Congress has disintegrated, but there are now allegations of a backdoor deal with the BJP. Gogoi has accused the BJP of seeking AIUDF support to secure a Rajya Sabha seat. The Congress leader claimed that BJP’s reliance on AIUDF support for the third Rajya Sabha seat contradicted its earlier stance against the party. BJP’s reliance on AIUDF support for the third Rajya Sabha seat contradicted its earlier stance that Badruddin Ajmal’s party was a threat to the state.

AIUDF intends to contest alone this assembly election and aims to contest between 28 and 32 seats, according to the party.

The numbers last time

In the 2021 assembly election, the National Democratic Alliance secured 75 seats. Within the alliance, the BJP won 60 seats, the Asom Gana Parishad secured nine, the United People’s Party Liberal won seven and the Bodoland People’s Front took three. The opposition bloc — comprising the Congress, Raijor Dal and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) — won 25 seats overall: 22 were secured by the Congress, two by Raijor Dal and one by CPI(M). AIUDF had won 15 seats. Four Congress leaders switched to BJP after winning the elections, while one person joined RD after being suspended from Congress.

As Assam approaches the polls, the contest appears to be driven both by ideology and by the struggle between maintaining power and challenging it. Communal divisions, regional ambitions and debates over governance are converging in a high-stakes battle that could determine the state’s political trajectory for years ahead.