What's Cooking With Rice?

The visit of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice could not have come at amore critical time. After the major terrorist attack in Mumbai Prime MinisterManmohan Singh telephoned President Zardari and sought a meeting with the ISIDirector-General for an appraisal of the incident. Zardari agreed to send him toDelhi. Apparently Pakistan Army chief General Kayani prevailed on Zardari tobacktrack. Zardari claimed there was miscommunication and he had only agreed tosend a junior Director. 

So one good emerged from the PM’s move. It exposed the weakness ofPakistan’s civilian government in relation to its army. 

General Kayani reinforced his clout by declaring that if there were Indiantroop movements on the border he would shift Pakistani troops from theAfghanistan border to the Indian border. This was a warning to the US thatPakistan could withdraw from the war on terror. 

Overtures for a truce by Pakistani militants after the Mumbai attack got anencouraging response from the Pakistan Army. It described the pro-Talibanmilitants as patriots. In normal times one could have interpreted this as aprecursor for dialogue to separate the Taliban from Al Qaeda. But the presenttiming excludes the possibility.

Before her arrival, Rice made strong statements urging Pakistan to cooperatetransparently and follow the evidence wherever it leads. The FBI team in Indiato assist investigations of the Mumbai blast will make its assessment aboutwhere the evidence leads. 

On available reports there is clinching proof of Pakistan based outfitsinvolved in the Mumbai attack. That perhaps emboldened the Indian government toformally demand extradition of underworld don Dawood Ibrahim and Jaish-e-Mohammedchief Maulana Mehmood Azhar to India. The government warned that failure tocomply with this demand would adversely affect Indo-Pak ties.

During the next thirty days before the Bush administration demits office weshould know whether General Kayani will help make good President Zardari’sassurances or not. We should also know whether the strong statements made by USleaders of both the outgoing and incoming administrations will be translatedinto meaningful action or not.

The war is against Al Qaeda. America, Russia and India have all suffered fromit. The problem is that either part or the whole of Pakistan’s securityestablishment is complicit with terrorism. President Zardari pursuing his owninterests is apparently against terrorism. 

But as written earlier, General Kayani holds the key. Will he hunt withAmerica or run with Al Qaeda? Till now the Pakistan army appears to be arrogantbecause it holds the nuclear card. The possibility of its use by recklessself-destructive fanatics discourages conventional war to bring Pakistan toheel.  But India can neutralize Pakistan without conventional war. This isnot the appropriate time to elaborate on that. 

If General Kayani cooperates the demolition of Al Qaeda becomes comparativelyeasy. If he does not, there could be complications. It is for the NATO powers tosort them out. Will they continue to rely on false assurances or take a clearstand? The Rice visit should give an indication