Waiting For Godot?

The differences between Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, also the Presidentof the Nepali Congress - Democratic (NC-D), and Deputy Prime Minister BharatMohan Adhikary, who represents the Communist Party of Nepal - UnifiedMarxist-Leninist (CPN-UML) on whether to continue waiting for the Maoists tocome to the negotiating table or to go ahead with elections to Parliament, havepushed Nepal into yet another phase of political uncertainty. 

The prospects of peaceful negotiations with the Maoists now appear moreelusive than ever. The Prime Minister had declared a 'deadline' of January 13for the Maoists to come to the negotiation table, but this date has come andgone, without any signs of a positive response from the rebels.

Prime Minister Deuba now clearly wants to go ahead with the election process,but the UML remains unsure. Complicating the matter further, most politicalparties believe that circumstances are not conducive for elections, and willremain so unless the Maoists are, in some way or the other, taken intoconfidence.

During the seven months of its tenure, the four-party coalition government ledby Deuba has also failed to bring other agitating parties led by Nepali Congress(NC, to which he formerly belonged) that are engaged in a protracted andpeaceful agitation demanding the reinstatement of the dissolved house of representatives.

With the recent announcement of a hike in petroleum prices, the fourNC-affiliated agitating parties have intensified their demonstrations, pushingthe government further into a corner, and have utilized the episode to press thegovernment to accept their demand for the reinstatement of the House.

Trapped in an unenviable position, the government announced on January 13, 2005,that it will wait for another two weeks before recommending a date forelections. Beginning the election process for the house of representatives byApril 12, 2005, was one of the two mandates (the other one being the start ofpolitical negotiations with the Maoists) imposed by King Gyanendra when heappointed the present government in June 2004.

The Prime Minister has clearly expressed his dilemma: "I don't have anyoptions other than to go for polls. We are still attaching the number onepriority for talks. We will sit for talks even if they come just five daysbefore the elections," he said, adding, "If they will not come to thenegotiations table, I will be compelled to strengthen the securityoperation."

In the meantime, Nepal's election commission has revealed that it is not in aposition to hold the parliamentary elections before October. Keshab RajRajbhandari, chief election commissioner, has stated, "We need at least sixmonths time to make the necessary arrangements before we can hold the polls. Thepolls cannot be held during the monsoon and festival session".

Although the Nepalese security agencies have asserted that they have weakenedthe Maoist capability in recent months through their operations destroying theirbases, seizing their arsenal and arresting some key figures, political partiesstill appear hesitant to accept the election proposal.

On January 5, 2005, the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) had launched a major attackagainst the Maoists in the Bankhet area of Kailali district - 500 miles west ofcapital - and claimed to have killed some 200 Maoists who had gathered in thearea, reportedly in preparation to launch an attack against the security basecamp nearby. Forty-one dead bodies of the Maoists were later retrieved from thesite, while security sources claimed that many other bodies had been taken awayby their fleeing comrades.  

RNA spokesperson, Brigadier General Deepak Gurung, declared: "We havethe upper hand over the Maoists… Security forces have had significantachievements in the last few months against the Maoists. We have confiscatednumbers of items including big and small guns, ammunition, bombs, explosives,modern communication equipments and logistics."

On January 8, 2005, the RNA claimed that they had destroyed a major Maoistweapons factory located in Sirsi jungle in Doti District - 550 miles west of thecapital. Security sources stated that this may have been the biggest arms andammunitions manufacturing factory operated by the Maoists in the country. OnJanuary 6, Police nabbed the Maoist 'Kathmandu Valley coordinator' along withtwo regional leaders and six others.

Despite their failure to control any area permanently, however, the Maoists havebeen able to put enough psychological pressure on people through their hit andrun tactics. With this psychological pressure, the Maoists have successfullyparalyzed the day-to-day lives of common people, imposing frequent blockades indifferent parts of the country, including the Kathmandu Valley. 

Following the withdrawal of the indefinite blockade in Kathmandu on December29, 2004, the Maoists again imposed a blockade in the Parsa, Bara and Rautahatdistricts on January 9, 2005, paralyzing all transport operations and commercialactivities in the eastern and central region. This region is traditionally amain commercial entry point and more than 70 percent of the country's exporttrade and import is conducted through these points. The Maoists have clearly andrepeatedly demonstrated their capacities to prevent the movement of people andvehicles in any part of the country.

After written threat from the Maoists, more than 70 percent of the secretariesof Village Development Committee working in various parts of the country havealready submitted their resignations to the government, thus vacating the ruralareas of the last vestiges of civil governance. Again, as a result of Maoistpressure, almost all leaders of other political parties have left the villagesto live in the district headquarters.

There have, of course, been feeble efforts of resistance against the Maoistjuggernaut, and in some parts of the country, including Dailekha, 350 miles westof the capital, and Nawalparasi, 200 miles south west of capital, the localpeople retaliated against the Maoists. Such resistance did not last long, sincethe people were largely unorganized.

Over the past months, the United People's Front (UPF) - a radical communistoutfit and former faction of the Maoist - has launched the 'Expose the Maoists'campaign in the rural areas, challenging Maoist cadres who have been threateningits workers. The UPF is now the only political party trying to defend itsworkers. Navaraj Subedi, member of the UPF said, "The Maoists should acceptour presence in villages and our supporters will defy any atrocities by theMaoists."

Within this context of tension and violence, signs of the much-awaited 'peaceprocess' appear nowhere. Nor, indeed, are the possibilities of a peaceful andcredible election process significant. Deputy Prime Minister Bharat MohanAdhikary argues, "There is no sense in talking about the elections as longas the Maoists are not brought to the negotiation table… There must be peacefirst to hold general elections for the parliament."

Despite the coalition government's determination to discuss all issues raised bythe Maoists, including the demands for a constituent assembly, all party governmentand round table meeting, the Maoists continue to decline the peace offer, sayingthat they will not talk to the present 'nominated government that has no power'. The Maoist leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda, in a recent statement,reiterated that they wanted to talk with the king directly. 

The government has reacted with hurt bewilderment. "I don't understandwhy the Maoists are not responding to us since we have displayed so muchflexibility. Announcing the elections date does not mean that the governmentcloses the door for peaceful negotiations for good. Our door is always open tothem and we will hold the negotiations at any time," said the governmentspokesperson and information minister Dr. Mohamad Mohsin.

Not all hopes have, however, been abandoned, though the dispute over thecommencement of the election process continues in the ruling coalition. "Weneed to wait for the Maoists till the last minute," the general secretaryof CPN-UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal, said, "If we announce elections datepreempting the Maoists, it will kill the environment for the resumption ofpeaceful negotiations." 

The CPN-UML, however, formed a four-member committee to talk with NepaliCongress leader, Girija Prasad Koirala, about the reinstatement of the house ofrepresentatives. The CPN-UML holds the view that it is better to reinstate theHouse rather than go for immediate elections. Pradeep Nepal, standing committeemember of the CPN-UML threatens, "If Prime Minister Deuba will not withdrawhis decision to hold the elections, we will pull out from the Cabinet."

Meanwhile, the agitating parties continue to demand the restoration of thedissolved Parliament, claiming that it would act as a meeting point for allconstitutional forces in the country. "At a time one cannot hold theelections and bring the Maoists to the negotiating table, so the revival of thehouse of representatives is necessary, where all legitimate political forces candiscuss all matters," asserts Nepali Congress President and former PrimeMinister Girija Prasad Koirala. "I don't think Maoist will come tonegotiate with this government which does not have any legitimacy."

Since the launching of the Maoist insurgency back in 1996, more than 10,000Nepalese have already lost their lives. According to the Police, 261 personswere killed in the last one month alone. "The government must open thenegotiations with the Maoists. If it is necessary, the government should nothesitate to seek mediation from UN agencies as demanded by the Maoists,"said Damannath Dhungana, former speaker of the house of representatives and amediator in past government-Maoist talks. "There is nothing wrong inaccepting the demand for a constituent assembly if peace prevails. If governmentsays yes to the constitutional assembly, Maoists will definitely come to thenegotiation table."

For the moment, however, peaceful negotiations remain altogether elusive in theHimalayan Kingdom, while anarchy and lawlessness continues to dominate thepolitical horizon.

Keshab Poudel is Managing Editor, Spotlight Weekly Magazine, Kathmandu.Courtesy,  the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia TerrorismPortal