The 155th Victim

In simple language: "the comprehensive will of the people" - thewill of all parts of the Lebanese public, including the Shiite community."Side by side with the Resistance": side by side with Hizbullah."Which have amazed the world with their steadfastness": the heroism ofthe Hizbullah fighters. "Blown to pieces the reputation of the army aboutwhich it has been said that it is invincible": the Israeli army.

Thus spoke a commander of the Lebanese army, the deployment of which alongthe border is being celebrated by the Olmert-Peretz government as a hugevictory, because this army is supposed to confront Hizbullah and disarm it.Israeli commentators have created the illusion that this army would be at thedisposal of the friends of the US and Israel in Beirut, such as Fuad Siniora,Saad Hariri and Walid Jumblatt.

It is no accident that this item was drowned in the deluge of TV blabber,like a stone thrown into a well. After broadcasting the item itself, nomeaningful debate about it took place. It was erased from the public mind.

But not only the balloon of the redeeming Lebanese army has been punctured.The same has happened to the multi-colored second balloon that was to serve asan Israeli achievement: the deployment of the international force that wouldprotect Israel from Hizbullah and prevent its re-armament. As the days pass, itbecomes increasingly clear that this force will be, at best, a mishmash of smallnational units, without a clear mandate and "robust" capabilities. Thecommando raid carried out by our army today, in blatant violation of thecease-fire, will certainly not attract more international volunteers for thejob.

So what remains of all the "achievements" of this war? A goodquestion.

After every failed war, the cry for an officialinvestigation goes up in Israel. Now there is a "trauma", muchbitterness, a feeling of defeat and of a missed opportunity. Hence the demandfor a strong Commission of Inquiry that will cut off the heads of thoseresponsible.

That's what happened after the first Lebanon war, which reached its climax inthe Sabra and Shatila massacre. The government refused any serious inquiry. Themasses that gathered in what is now called "Rabin Square" (themythical 400 thousand) demanded a judicial inquiry. The public mood reachedboiling point and in the end the Prime Minister, Menachem Begin, gave in.

The Kahan Commission that investigated the event condemned a number ofpoliticians and army officers for "indirect" responsibility for themassacre, even though its own factual conclusions would have justified a muchstronger condemnation. But Ariel Sharon was, at least, removed from the DefenseMinistry.

Before that, after the trauma of the Yom Kippur war, the government alsorefused to appoint a Commission of Inquiry, but public pressure forced its hand.The fate of the Agranat Committee, which included a former Chief-of-Staff andtwo other senior officers, was rather odd: it conducted a serious investigation,put all the blame on the military, removed from office the Chief-of-Staff,"Dado" Elazar - and acquitted the political leadership of any blame.This caused a spontaneous public uproar. In its wake, Golda Meir and Moshe Dayan- predecessors of Olmert and Peretz as Prime Minister and Minister of Defense -were forced to resign.

This time, too, the political and military leadership is trying to block anyserious investigation. Amir Peretz even appointed a whitewash-committee, packedwith his cronies. But public pressure is building up, and chances seem good thatin the end there will be no way out but to appoint a judicial inquiry committee.

Generally, the one who appoints a commission of inquiry and sets its terms ofreference predetermines its conclusions. Under Israeli law, it is the governmentwhich decides to appoint such a commission and determines its terms ofreference. (As a Member of the Knesset, I voted against these paragraphs.) Butthe composition of the commission is determined by the President of the SupremeCourt. If a commission is set up, I assume the present President of the Court,Aharon Barak, a highly respected chief justice, will appoint himself for thejob.

If indeed such a commission is set up, what will itinvestigate?

The politicians and generals will try to restrict the inquiry to thetechnical aspects of the conduct of the war: - Why was the army not prepared fora war against guerillas? - Why were the land forces not sent into the field inthe two first weeks? - Did the military command believe that the war could bewon by the Air Force alone? - What was the quality of the intelligence? - Whywas nothing done to protect the rear, when the rocket threat was known? - Whywere the poor in the North left to their fate, after the well-to-do had left thearea? - Why were the reserve units not ready for the war? - Why were theemergency arsenals empty? - Why did the supply system not function? - Why didthe Chief-of-Staff practically depose the Chief of the Northern Command in themiddle of the war? - Why was it decided at the last moment to start a campaignthat cost the lives of 33 Israeli soldiers?

The government will probably attempt to widen the investigation and to putpart of the blame on its predecessors: - Why did the Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharongovernments just look on when Hizbullah was growing? - Why was nothing done asHizbullah built up its huge stockpile of rockets?

All these are serious questions, and it is certainly necessary to clear themup. But it is more important to investigate the roots of the war: - What madethe trio Olmert-Peretz-Halutz decide to start a war only a few hours after thecapture of the two soldiers? - Was it agreed with the Americans in advance to goto war the moment a credible pretext presented itself? - Did the Americans pushIsrael into the war, and, later on, demand that it go on and on as far aspossible? - Was it Condoleezza Rice who decided in fact when to start and whento stop? - Did the US want to get us entangled with Syria? - Did the US use usfor its campaign against Iran?

This, too, is not enough. There are more profound and important questions.

This war has no name. Even after 33 days of fightingand six days of cease-fire, no natural name has been found. The media use achronological name: Lebanon War II.

This way, the war in Lebanon is separated from the war in the Gaza Strip,which has been conducted simultaneously, and which is going on unabated afterthe cease-fire in the North. Do these two wars have a common denominator? Arethey, perhaps, one and the same war?

The answer is: certainly, yes. And the proper name is: the War for theSettlements.

The war against the Palestinian people is being waged in order to keep the"settlement blocs" and annex large parts of the West Bank. The war inthe North was waged, in fact, to keep the settlements on the Golan Heights.

Hizbullah grew up with the support of Syria, which controlled Lebanon at thetime. Hafez al-Assad saw the return of the Golan to Syria as the aim of his life- after all, it was he who lost them in the June 1967 war, and who did notsucceed in getting them back in the October 1973 war. He did not want to riskanother war on the Israel-Syria border, which is so close to Damascus.Therefore, he patronized Hizbullah, so as to convince Israel that it would haveno quiet as long as it refused to give the Golan back. Assad jr. is continuingwith his fathers legacy.

Without the cooperation of Syria, Iran has no direct way of supplyingHizbullah with arms.

The solution is on hand: we have to remove the settlers from there, whateverthe cost in wines and mineral water, and give the Golan back to its rightfulowners. Ehud Barak almost did so, but, as is his wont, lost his nerve at thelast moment.

It has to be said aloud: every one of the 154 Israeli dead of Lebanon War II(until the cease-fire) died for the settlers on the Golan Heights.

The 155th Israeli victim of this war is the "CovergencePlan" - the plan for a unilateral withdrawal from parts of the West Bank.

Ehud Olmert was elected four months ago (hard to believe! only four months!)on the platform of Convergence, much as Amir Peretz was elected on the platformof reducing the army and carrying out far-reaching social reforms.

In the course of the war, Olmert still announced that he would implement the"Convergence". But the day before yesterday he conceded that we couldforget about it.

The Convergence was to remove 60 thousand settlers from where they are, butto leave the almost 400 thousand settlers in the West Bank (including theJerusalem area). Now this plan has also been buried.

What remains? No peace, no negotiations, no solution at all for the historicconflict. Just a complete deadlock for years, at least until we get rid of theduo Olmert & Peretz.

All over Israel, they are already talking about the "Next Round",the war that will at long last eliminate Hizbullah and punish it for besmirchingour honor. That has become, so it seems, a self-evident matter. Even Haaretztreats it as such in its editorials.

In the South, they don't speak about the "Next Round" because thepresent round is endless.

To have any value whatsoever, the investigation must expose the real roots ofthe war and present the public with the historic choice that has become clear inthis war, too: Either the settlements and an endless war, or the return of theoccupied territories and peace.

Otherwise, the investigation will only provide more backing for the outlookof the Right, to wit: we only have to expose the mistakes that have been madeand correct them, then we can start the next war and win.