Our Man In Nepal?

Four times Prime minister, Surya Bahadur Thapa was appointed as Prime minister again by King Gyanendra onJune 4, after the political parties are said to have failed to reach a consensus on a common candidate. TheKing used Article 127 once again to "remove the difficulty" in the implementation of theConstitution. But in the absence of a Parliament, the latter part of the Article where it is mandatory toplace such orders before the Parliament cannot be implemented.

It all started with the protest movement by the five political parties against the Lokendra BahadurChand’s government from May 3^rd. The parties were into the third phase of the protest whichincluded the reconvening of the dissolved assembly on May 29 at the Singha Durbar or in the alternative at theAcademy Hall. It was near the Singha Durbar that Police blocked the procession and selectively baton chargedresulting in serious injuries to many veteran political leaders.

This protest movement against "regression" had spread to only 20 of the seventy five districts.The participants were mainly party cadres and committed persons and their aim was to disturb the normalfunctioning of the government. It had not gained the expected momentum and the people in general wereapathetic. However, the mock parliament and the subsequent violence on the demonstrators drew internationalattention. Then there was the determination of the parties to continue the struggle for a long time if needbe. It was at this time that the King decided to call the leaders of the political parties together, but notbefore consulting the just appointed prime minister Surya Bahadur Thapa more than once.

Even the collective meeting of the political leaders could not take place earlier as the King took thestand that since there is a Prime minister (Lokendra Bahadur Chand), it is for the PM to suggest a meeting. Onthe other hand the political parties took the position that since the Chand government had no legitimacy, theywere unwilling to meet the PM or even meet the King on his suggestion. This stand off between the King and thepolitical parties continued for a while before the King came down from his perch and obtained Chand’sresignation. With Chand out of the way, the King could now directly call all the leaders collectively and thisis what happened on May 30.

In appointing Surya Bahadur Thapa, the King played according to the script he had already made out as noconsensus could ever have occurred.

Firstly, the meeting had the leaders of four of the agitating parties, the Congress of Girija Koirala, theUML of Madhav Nepal, Amik Sherchen of PFN and Narayan Man Bijukche of NWPP. Then there were two who had avested interest in the former government of Lokendra Bahadur Chand- Pasupathi Samsher Rana of RPP of whichChand himself was a member and the former Dy. Prime minister Badri Prasad Mandal of the breakaway NSP. Therewas Sher Bahadur Deuba of Nepali Congress (D). While Deuba would have gone along with the four parties aftersome initial protest, the others would never have agreed on a consensus candidate and this is exactly what theKing wanted.

Secondly, before meeting the King, the four political parties along with the Anandi faction of NSP had metand decided to recommend the name of Madhav Nepal as Prime minister. There was an earlier commitment fromG.P.Koirala to Madhav Nepal that the latter will be suggested as the Prime minister in the meeting.

Thirdly, even before calling the collective meeting, the King had called Surya Bahadur Thapa and gavedefinite hints that the latter will be made the next prime minister. He was also given the task of talking toother leaders, particularly G.P.Koirala and Madhav Nepal to persuade them to agree to Thapa being made the PM.In any event, the impression gained was that Surya Bahadur Thapa was not successful

Fourthly, the King did not want Madhav Nepal as Prime minister for reasons best known to him. After thesplit in the Nepali Congress, the UML had the highest number of MPs in the dissolved Parliament and the postshould have rightly gone to Madhav Nepal, its leader. It is being said that the King was afraid that MadhavNepal may join hands with the Maoists to the detriment of monarchy and even democracy. Another reason, thoughtotally untrue was said to be that India may not like Madhav Nepal as Prime minister. It may be recalled thatMadhav Nepal during his last visit to India a few months ago was treated with all respect and was met by theIndian Prime minister. India has nothing against him.

What next?

Firstly, the King in appointing Surya Bahadur Thapa on grounds of lack of a consensus has not taken intoaccount the conditions under which the five parties started the protest movement. In effect, the appointmentof S.B.Thapa was arbitrary. In the absence of a consensus, the best course would have been for him to referthe matter to the Supreme Court for its advice instead of invoking Article 127 of the Constitution once again.

Secondly, Surya Bahadur will necessarily have to induct members of the five political parties now agitatingif it has to be a representative one. The parties have already declared that Thapa’s appointment was"against the will of majority of the people." Directions have been given to party members not toaccept any appointment under the new regime. The way out would be to look for defectors and this will furtherwiden and intensify the strained relations between the King and the five political parties.

Thirdly, the Maoists have reacted along the expected lines. The change in the government leadership hasbeen termed as a conspiracy hatched by the "old regime" to consolidate its regressive move and topush the entire nation towards confrontation. Prachanda the chairman has described the appointment as a policyof "divide and rule "instead of showing sincerity to the on going peace dialogue with them. However,there is no imminent danger of the peace talks breaking down.

Fourthly, it is important to realise that any action should be in consonance with the ongoing cease fireand peace talks. Of the two interlocutors, Narayan Singh Pun may retain the job, while Pande may have to leaveafter the fiasco of the 5 Kilometer restraint placed on the Army and rejected by the latter.

Lastly, as before, the Maoists have gained most in the divided polity and will make more demands. Theirposition will get harder and may not agree to the third round in the near future. Currently, they continue torun riot in the interior and many instances of abductions, illegal arrests and extortions are being reported.

Unlike Lokendra Bahadur Chand. Surya Bahadur Thapa is competent with vast experience in governance and isalso a clever politician. The theory goes round that he has been made the Prime minister as he is the one mostacceptable to India. There is no doubt that he is a friend of India but he is not there because of India.

There was an interesting news item that G.P. Koirala in one of the meeting said that "People are tiredof looking at old faces and I welcome the young and energetic leaders in the party." It is hoped that hefollows through with this statement by handing over leadership to the next generation that has many competentand motivated leaders.

Dr. S. Chandrasekharan is Director, the South Asian Analysis Group, New Delhi