Double Whammy

GUWAHATI

Creating history, leading the Congress to victory in succession, Tarun Gogoiseems once again set to assume the hot seat in Assam, dashing the hopes of theopposition Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the baby on the block, the Assam UnitedDemocratic Front (AUDF) which wanted to play kingmaker.

What is truly significant is that while the state delivered a fracturedmandate, and the Congress had a loss of as much as 18 seats compared to lastelections, and a swing of 11.4% away from it, it is the fractured nature of theopposition that allows it to cross the magic half-way figure -- its 53 seats inthe 126-member assembly, with the support of Bodoland People's Progressive Front(BPPF), with which it had a pre-poll understanding would enable it to reach themajority mark of 65.

‘The verdict is an endorsement of my party’s governance. Our focus onpeace and development has paid off," Gogoi told outlookindia.com. The Congress’individual tally has been impressive for a party seeking re-election, and,therefore, the party may not need to rope in other parties other than its ally,the Bodo People’s Progressive Front (Hagrama faction), except a fewindependents.

The AGP accepted defeat, but several of its leaders said the party had to paythe price for the ‘wrongs’ done by the party government headed by formerchief minister and founder president Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, who had walked outto form the AGP (Pragatisheel). ‘We spent much of our time repairing thedamage done by our earlier leader,’ AGP spokesman Apurba Bhattacharya said.

On a day when the Congress reversed Assam’s 20 year old electoral historyof a see-saw verdict, the party received a shock with Pradesh Congress presidentBhubaneswar Kalita losing his seat in Rangiya, in Kamrup district. Kalita washoping to be chief minister of a Congress-led coalition in a scenario if theparty required support from parties like the AUDF.

Officially, however, the party had not declared its chief minister, projectedanyone for the top post in its campaign but with the defeat of state Congresschief Bhubaneswar Kalita, the incumbent chief minister seems all set to retainhis job. Three senior leaders including Mohsina Kidwai and AICC GeneralSecretary Digvijay Singh have been dispatched to Guwahati and the meeting of thenewly elected Congress Legislature Party will be held at Guwahati on May 13 toelect its leader.

Top Congress dissident leader Devananda Konwar also lost the polls, but whatcame as yet another surprise for the party was the defeat of Transport MinisterAnjan Dutta, credited with reviving the ailing Assam State Transport Corporationback on rails after this PSU was in the red. Several ASTC employees hadcommitted suicide before Dutta succeeded in turning it around.

The Congress had approached the polls on a positive plank, seeking votes onthe strength of its peace and development agenda. When it won the 2001 polls,the state treasury was faced with a Rs 500 crore deficit. ‘Today, we have asurplus of more than Rs 1300 crore," said Himanta Biswa Sharma, Minister ofState for Finance in the outgoing ministry and Gogoi’s main troubleshooter.

Aside from the AGP itself, major parties to be disappointed at the regionalparty’s rout will be the Telegu Desam and the Samajwadi Party. That isbecause, the two parties had the AGP in mind, aside from parties like theNational Conference, while pushing ahead with its ‘third alternative’ plan.But SP leader Amar Singh said its ‘third alternative’ plan will remain. ‘Wehave a bigger role in mind, not just winning elections," he said.

Among the reasons for the AGP’s defeat is the impression that the party wasmoving dangerously close to the AUDF, a party seen to be interested inprotecting the interests of the Muslim settlers. Ironically, the Congresscampaign that the AGP could actually be having a secret understanding with theBJP may have also made the party (AGP) suspect in the eyes of the Muslim voters.