The Importance of Asia
Much has been written in recent years about the coming Asian century. Here is one example, a recent judgmenton the subject by an obscure Harvard professor. I wrote the following in my book America's Asian Alliancesjust before I reentered government in early 2001,
"Asia, with over one-half of the world's population, is an increasingly dangerous place. Big powercompetition in this huge area is alive and well. Contrast Europe, where democracy and the market economyreign, largely pacified west of the eastern Polish border. Although residual problems remain in the Balkans,state-to-state conflict is nearly unimaginable in the immediate future, and the next decade promises thegreatest peace and prosperity in the continent's history. An enormous accomplishment by transatlanticgovernments, and by the people of Europe themselves, this is one of the most consequential geopolitical factsfor the era ahead. By stark contrast Asia, which has so little in common with the history, geopolitics, andsecurity practices and institutions of Europe, has many alternative futures. Some of these…would beperilous."
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Asia's century is now underway. In this new era, one of the key objectives of American grand strategy is touse US diplomatic, economic, and military power and influence to help maintain a durable and robustgeopolitical framework in Asia, in which the United States, its Allies and friends can prosper in freedom.Where better today to stress that point in Asia than in democratic India. This goal is particularly salientbecause Asia is poised to become the strategic center of gravity in international politics.
For the first time since the signing of the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, the single largest concentration ofinternational economic power will be found not in Europe - not in the Americas - but in Asia. This, of course,has profound global implications.
The return of Asia to center stage in the international system after almost five hundred years is driven by atleast three crucial factors:
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- The long peace among the major Asian powers in the last quarter of the 20th century, underpinned by thesecurity presence of the United States in Asia, created political conditions for economic prosperity;
- The success of the liberal international economic order permitted many Asian states to increase theireconomic growth rates far beyond the global historical norm; and,
- The presence of enlightened leadership in key Asian countries produced national strategies focused oneconomic development, expanded trade, and increased prosperity.
The Problems of Asian Security
The United States has a preeminent strategic objective to collaborate with others, including India, to ensurethat events in Asia proceed down this positive path. However, Asia faces grave problems that could unravel thefabric of its future peace and prosperity. Although the US will not face an Asian peer competitor in theforeseeable future, regional powers are developing sufficient capabilities to threaten American vital nationalinterests, and those of its friends and Allies.
Asia is an area that while enjoying growing economic prosperity, is susceptible to acute instability. Along abroad arc of volatility that stretches from the Middle East and Persian Gulf (consider Iraq) to Northeast Asia(consider North Korea), the region contains a hazardous mix of rising and declining regional influentials,prosperous and failing states, status quo and revisionist nations, and responsible and rogue governments.
Asia hosts the most threatening sources of global terrorism. It contains the most severe internationalterritorial disputes, and non-democratic rivalries over the right to rule. Many of its countries field largemilitaries and possess the potential and/or ability to develop, acquire, use or export weapons of massdestruction - witness especially the current dangerous cases of Iraq and North Korea that are being urgentlyaddressed by the international community. And reckless governments in some Asian nations provide fertileground for non-state actors to engage in terrorism, and onward proliferation of WMD technologies.
Maintaining a stable Asia in these combustible circumstances represents a complex and abiding strategicmission for India, the United States and all like minded states.
The Transforming US-India Relationship in the Context of Asian Security
President Bush and Prime Minister Vajpayee recognized and acted upon this strategic challenge and thereforegave a historic impulse to US-India diplomatic collaboration, counter terrorism, counter proliferation,defense and military-to-military teamwork, intelligence exchange, and law enforcement.
Two years ago, under the 1998 US sanctions regime, the United States and India seemed constantly at odds.Today, President Bush has this to say about India,
"The Administration sees India's potential to become one of the great democratic powers of thetwenty-first century and has worked hard to transform our relationship accordingly."
The President waived the 1998 sanctions against India, and drastically trimmed the long "EntityList" which barred Americans from doing business with certain Indian companies from over 150 Entities toless than 20.
Two years ago, the American and Indian militaries conducted no joint operations. Today, they have completedsix major training exercises. Two years ago, American and Indian policymakers did not address together theimportant issues of cooperative high technology trade, civil space activity, and civilian nuclear power.Today, all three of these subjects are under concentrated bilateral discussion, and both governments aredetermined to make substantial progress. Two years ago, American sanctions against India undermined bilateraldiplomatic cooperation on regional and global issues. All that has changed, from Iraq, to Afghanistan, to Asiawrit large.
President Bush and Prime Minister Vajpayee champion this powerful and positive bilateral interaction with topdown direction, reinforced by an unprecedented stream of Washington policymakers who have traveled to India.The Prime Minister has spoken of India and the United States as "natural allies." He is right. SinceSept 1, 2001, five members of the Bush Cabinet have come to India, some more than once. Nearly 100 US officialvisitors to India at the rank of Assistant Secretary of State or higher have reinforced their efforts.
In my view, close and cooperative relations between America and India will endure over the long run mostimportantly because of the convergence of their democratic values and vital national interests. Our democraticprinciples bind us -- a common respect for individual freedom, the rule of law, the importance of civilsociety, and peaceful state-to-state relations. With respect to overlapping US-India vital national interests,my "Big Three" for the next decade and beyond are to promote peace and freedom in Asia, combatinternational terrorism, and slow the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
Managing Asian Security
Peace within Asia -- a peace that promotes freedom and prosperity - will be advanced by the transformedUS-India relationship. Within a fellowship of democratic nations, the United States and India would benefitfrom an Asian environment free from inter-state conflict --- including among the region's great powers -- opento trade and commerce, and respectful of human rights and personal freedoms. President Bush says itsuccinctly, "We seek a peaceful region where no power, or coalition of powers, endangers the security orfreedom of other nations; where military force is not used to resolve political disputes."
Achieving this paramount goal requires the United States particularly to strengthen political, economic, andmilitary-to-military relations with those Asian states that share our democratic values and nationalinterests. That spells India. A strong US-India partnership contributes to the construction of a peaceful andprosperous Asia and binds the resources of the world's most powerful and most populous democracies in supportof freedom, political moderation, and economic and technological development.
Even as the US and India together support peace, prosperity and liberty in this part of the world, Asiaremains an area wracked by the cancer of international terrorism. During the past decade, more familiarethnic, nationalist, and separatist terrorist groups have been joined by new organizations with murderousideological motivations. These newer terrorist organizations, which attract recruits by perverting greatreligious traditions, embody a lethal threat to both India and the United States. Their worldview propels themto conduct deadly attacks to inflict mass, indiscriminate casualties among innocents. Both the United Statesand India are principal victims of this new and more dangerous kind of terrorism. If you visitors to Indiadoubt this, take a look at the bullet holes still evident at the Indian Parliament from the December 13, 2001,terrorist attack on that incandescent symbol of Indian democracy. Other nations may fade in the marathon waragainst terrorism. India and the United States will be there together at the finish - when we win.
If promoting peace, prosperity and freedom in Asia, and ending international terrorism are two importantlong-term objectives of a transformed US-Indian relationship, the third and final strategic challengeunderlying this radical reform of our bilateral ties is to curtail the proliferation of weapons of massdestruction in Asia, and the means to deliver them. Today, Asia has eight nations that either have nuclearweapons capabilities, or are trying to acquire them. Nine countries have biological and chemical weapons orare attempting to obtain them. Eight nations have ballistic missiles with ranges exceeding 1,000 km. No otherpart of the globe has such a concentration of WMD nations and capabilities, and these disturbing trends couldworsen. As WMD programs have become more advanced and more effective as they mature, some irresponsiblecountries have become more aggressive in pursuing them.
Both India and the United States share a common vital national interest in restraining the furtherproliferation of WMD, and their means of delivery. Both countries face a significant risk within the next fewyears of confronting either terrorists or rogue states armed with such WMD capabilities.
Thus, strong US-India relations over the long term are rooted not simply in an enduring commitment todemocratic governance indispensable as that is, but also in the fundamental congruence of US and Indian vitalnational interests. Indeed, it is difficult for me to think easily of countries other than India and theUnited States that currently face to the same striking degree all three of these intense challengessimultaneously -- advancing Asian stability based on democratic values; confronting the threat ofinternational terror; and slowing the further proliferation of WMD. This daunting trio will be an encompassingfoundation for US-India strategic cooperation for many years to come.
The Strategic Economic Dimension of the US-India Relationship
"Why," you may ask, "does the Bush Administration care about US-India economic ties, and thefuture of the Indian economy?" After all, there are over 190 nations in the world. What is so specialabout India in this regard? The President recently issued "The National Security Strategy for the UnitedStates of America," which sets forth our diplomatic and security approach to the current openings anddangers within the international system, an approach based on America's democratic values. This report, whichbears President Bush's personal stamp, describes India as one of the "great democratic powers of the 21stcentury."
I now want to make a point that is important to my presentation of managing the opportunities and problems ofAsian security. As I used to teach students in my course on strategy at Harvard University, national economicstrength is a prerequisite for sustained diplomatic influence and military muscle. The close US-Indiapartnership that I have just enumerated would be made more wide reaching and successful by a fundamentallyreformed and globalized Indian economy. I openly admit, therefore, that there is a certain amount of Americanself-interest as we hope for the best for India's economic performance in the years ahead.
On the geopolitical side, an India that takes full advantage of its extraordinary human capital to boost itseconomy would be a more effective strategic collaborator with the US over the next decades, including inpromoting peace, stability and freedom in Asia. An India that enters into a full fledged series of secondgeneration domestic economic reforms would inevitably play an increasingly influential role in internationalaffairs across the board, and that too would be beneficial for the United States.
Conclusion
President Bush vigorously promotes US-India strategic interaction because a powerful India is a criticalmember of the core group of liberal democracies that will collaborate to strengthen Asian security in thedecade ahead: to bolster democracy and preserve a balance of power in Asia; to defeat international terrorism;and to curb the spread of Weapons of Mass Destruction.
As I draw to a close, I am reminded of my former boss and not obscure Harvard professor Henry Kissinger whoobserved in his book Diplomacy, that
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"Intellectuals analyze the operations of international systems; statesman build them. And there is avast difference between the perspective of an analyst and that of a statesman. The analyst can choose whichproblem he wishes to study, whereas the statesman's problems are imposed on him. The analyst can allotwhatever time is necessary to come to a clear conclusion; the overwhelming challenge to a statesman is thepressure of time. The analyst runs no risk. The statesman is permitted only one guess; his mistakes areirretrievable. The analyst has available to him all the facts; he will be judged by his intellectual power.The statesman must act on assessments that cannot be proven at the time he is making them; he will be judgedby history on the basis of how wisely he managed the inevitable change, and above all, how well he preservesthe peace."
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The transformation of the US-India relationship is in long term ascent propelled by two such statesmen --President Bush and Prime Minster Vajpayee. Only a vision in January 2001, this strategic transformation is nowa growing reality. As Foreign Minister Sinha stressed in New Delhi last month, ties between the United Statesand India are better today than at any time in a half-century. Both Governments are determined to keep it thatway-for their own sake and for an Asian security built on freedom, prosperity and peace.
