Rajasthan

Rajasthan

MainPage ! SurveyHighlights And Methodology
Delhi ! Madhya Pradesh ! Chattisgarh

Votingintention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party	Actual vote in1998 (%)	Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)	Swing (%)	Actual number ofseats in 1998	Projected numberof seats for 2003
BJP	33.9	36.4	+2.5	33	67
INC	45.2	40.7	--4.5	153	113
Others	20.9	22.9	+2.0	14	20
Total	100	100	0	200	200

1. The reasons for intending to vote for a particular party

Respondents who had indicated aParty they would vote for in the coming elections were next asked to give their reasons of why they would votefor that Party. They were free to give one or more reasons. The reasons given for voting for Congress and BJP are summarized inthe table below :

	Congress -I	BJP
Base : Would Vote for.....	2982	2667
% saying:	%	%
Itcan ensure justice for poor	27	17
Preferthis party from the beginning	21	18
Itcan improve villages	16	13
Becauseof the leader of the party	13	17
Providefood during drought	11	1
Itwill solve state's problems	10	9
Doesdevelopment work	10	10

27% of the respondents who saidthat they would vote for the Congress say so because they feel that it is the party that ensures justice forthe poor and another 16% said it can improve villages.

17% of the respondents who saidthat they would vote for BJP would do so because of the leader of the party.

2.Important issues facing the State today

Respondents were asked to statethe three main issues facing the State today. A large number ofproblems were mentioned. The main problems mentioned by over 10%of the respondents were :

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base : All respondents	7328	1891	5437
% saying..	%	%	%
Providingemployment opportunities	47	55	45
Water problem	44	33	48
Electricity / Powersituation	29	21	32
Improving roads inthe state	13	13	13
Poverty	12	10	13
Overall developmentof the State	10	14	8

Ascan be seen unemployment, water availability and electricity/power situation are the main concerns of thepeople of Rajasthan.

3. Whether Voted in 1998 Vidhan Sabha elections

The respondents were next askedwhether they had voted in the last Vidhan Sabha elections that were held in 1998.

	All Sample	Urban	Rural
Base : All Sample	7328	1891	5437
% saying:	%	%	%
Yes	86	87	86
No	14	13	14

86%of the respondents in the sample claimed that they had cast their votes in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections.

4. Party voted for in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections Vs. Party intend to vote for now

	Party voted forin the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections
Base : Claim to have voted	Congress (I)	BJP
in 1998 for ..	3025	2183
Party intend to vote now
% saying:	%	%
Congress - I	81.2	5.9
BJP	11.2	88.3
Others / INDP	2.9	2.0
Don’t know / Can’t say	4.6	3.6

11.2% of the respondents in thesample who claimed to have voted in favour of Congress (I) in the last Vidhan Sabha Elections have said thatthey will vote for BJP this time. Where as only 5.9% of thosesaid they had voted for BJP now intent to vote for Congress (I).

5.Reasons for Shifting away from Congress (I)

Those said that they had voted forINC in 1998 but now intend to vote for BJP were asked the reasons for the change in their voting intentions.

The main reasons as mentioned bythe respondents were:

Base : those who claimed tohave voted for Congress (I) last time but now intend to vote forBJP	338
% saying…	%
It can maintain lawand order (BJP)	30
Keep promises (BJP)	10
It can bring downcorruption / reduce corruption (BJP)	9
It will solvestate's problems (BJP)	9
Because of theleader of the party (BJP)	8

As can be seen from the abovetable, it is mainly that BJP is seen as a party that can maintainlaw and order and party that keeps its promises that hasattracted people to BJP away from the Congress.

6. Performance of Ashok Gehlot as the Chief Minister of Rajasthan

Respondents were next asked torate the performance of Ashok Gehlot of Congress (I) as the Chief Minister during his 5 year tenure inRajasthan. Responses are as mentioned below:

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base : Allrespondents	7328	1891	5437
% saying..	%	%	%
VeryGood	14	15	14
Good	29	30	28
Average	27	28	27
Poor	20	18	21
VeryPoor	6	4	7
Don’tKnow / Can’t Say	4	5	3
Meanscore (out of 5)	3.24	3.33	3.22

43% of the respondents have ratedthe performance of Sh. Gehlot as the CM of Rajasthan as good to very good compared to 26% who rated it as‘poor/very poor’. The mean score of 3.24 out of 5.00 indicates an above average rating of the govt.

7.Main achievements of Ashok Gehlot

Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past five years as very good or good, were asked the reasons for the same. The responses were:

Base: All thosewho rated performance of CM as very good or good	3111
%saying:	%
Provideadequate drought relief	69
Improvedroads in the state	27
Hasdone a lot for overall development of the State	24
Hassolved the water problem	21
ProvidedEmployment opportunities	16
Hasreduce poverty levels in the State	15
Providedbetter education	14
Hasimproved electricity / power situation in the State	12

The main reason (69%) for rating Sh. Gehlot as good or verygood is that he had provided adequate drought relief to the people in the state.

8. Main failures of Ashok Gehlot

Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past five years as poor or very poor, wereasked the reasons for the same. The responses were:

Base:All those who rated performance of CM as poor or very poor	1960
% saying:	%
Has not providedemployment opportunities	36
Has not done enoughfor overall development of the State	32
Has not improvedelectricity / Power situation in the state	27
Has not solved thewater problem	25
Did not providedadequate drought relief	17
Has not done enoughto reduce poverty levels in the State	16
Corruption hasgrown.	16
Has not improvedroads in the state	15

36% of the respondents feel thatSh. Gehlot has not done enough to provide employment opportunities in the state and another 32% said he hadnot done enough for the overall development in the state.

9. Opinion on arrest of Praveen Togadia

Therespondents were asked for their opinion about the Sh. Gehlot’s action of getting Praveen Togadia arrestedfor distributing trishuls. The views of the respondents are mentioned below:

Base:All Respondents	7328
%saying:	%
AshokGehlot was right in getting Praveen Togadia arrested for distributing trishuls	33
AshokGehlot was not right in getting Praveen Togadia arrested for distributing trishuls	33
Don’tknow / Can’t say	34

Opinionwas divided on whether Sh. Gehlot was right or not right in getting Praveen Togadia arrested for distributingtrishuls.

10. Announcement of reservation for economically backward upper castes

The respondents were askedtheir opinion about the announcement of Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlotregarding 14% reservation for economically backward Brahmins and Rajputs in Government jobs.. The viewsof the respondents are mentioned below:

Base:All Respondents	7328
%saying:	%
Itis a serious effort towards reducing inequality in reservation of certain sections of society	29
Itis just a political gimmick considering the coming elections in the state	45
Others	25
Don’tknow / Can’t say	1

45%of the respondents feel that the announcement is just a political gimmick considering the coming elections inthe state whereas, 29% felt it was a serious effort in reducing inequality among certain sections.

11.Opinion on the Parivartan Yatra by Vasundhara Raje

Therespondents were asked their opinion about the recent Parivartan Yatra undertaken by Vasundhara Raje. Theviews of the respondents are mentioned below:

Base:All Respondents	7328
%saying:	%
Itis a serious effort by Vasundhara Raje to understand the issues concerning the people of Rajasthan	30
Itis just a political gimmick considering the coming elections in the state	47
Don’tknow / Can’t say	23

47% of the respondents feel thatthe Parivartan Yatra by Ms. Raje is just a political gimmick considering the coming elections in the state andanother 23% did not comment.

12.Most capable of being the next CM of Rajasthan

The respondents were askedwho as per their opinion is the most capable of being the next Chief Minister of Rajasthan. The views of therespondents are mentioned below:

Base: AllRespondents	7328
% saying:	%
Ashok Gehlot	43
VasundharaRaje	32
Girija Vyas	2
Gulab Chand Kataria	2
Lalit Kishore Chaturvedi	1
Bhanwar Lal Sharma	1

43%of the respondents feel that Ashok Gehlot of Congress(I) is the most capable of being the next ChiefMinister of Rajasthan compared to 32%, who felt Vasundhara Raje was the most suited.

13a.Reasons for preferring Ashok Gehlot as CM

Respondentswho had indicated Ashok Gehlot as being the most capable of becoming the CM of Rajasthan were next askedto give their reasons for preferring him. They were free to give one or more reasons.

Base: Thosepreferring Ashok Gehlot as next CM	3163
% saying:	%
Done developmentwork / good work	28
Provided adequaterelief during draught	25
Help the poorpeople	24
He is honest /clean image	16
Good performance oftrack record	15
He is a Popularleader	11

28% of those whohad mentioned Ashok Gehlot as the most capable of becoming the next CM of Rajasthan say so because of thegood development work done by him in the state followed closely by 25% who said that he had provided adequatedrought relief and 24% who said he had helped the poor.

13b. Reasons forpreferring Vasundhara Raje as CM

Respondents who hadindicated Vasundhara Raje as being the most capable of becoming the CM of Rajasthan were next asked togive their reasons for preferring her. They were free to give one or more reasons.

Base: Thosepreferring Vasundhara Raje as next CM	2374
% saying:	%
Done developmentwork / good work	20
She is honest /clean image	16
Help the poorpeople	14
She is a Popularleader	13
She is a candidatefrom BJP	12
Good performance oftrack record	10

36% of those whohad mentioned Vasundhara Raje as the most capable of becoming the next CM of Rajasthan say so because ofher honest/clean image and the good development work done by her in the state.

List of Assembly Constituencies covered in Rajasthan

AC NO.	ASSEMBLYCONSTITUENCY	PARLIAMENTARYCONSTITUENCY
1	BHADRA	GANGANAGAR(SC)
7	KESRISINGHPUR(SC)	GANGANAGAR(SC)
10	PILIBANGA	BIKANER
16	DUNGARGARH	CHURU
17	SUJANGARH(SC)	CHURU
27	NAWALGARH	JHUNJHUNU
34	DANTA– RAMGARH	SIKAR
39	AMBER	DAUSA
42	JOHRIBAZAR	JAIPUR
48	PHAGI(SC)	JAIPUR
51	BANDIKUI	DAUSA
58	BEHROR	ALWAR
63	ALWAR	ALWAR
67	KATHUMAR(SC)	BHARATPUR
72	BHARATPUR	BHARATPUR
79	BARI	BAYANA(SC)
85	GANGAPUR	SAWAIMADHOPUR(ST)
93	MALPURA	TONK(SC)
94	KISHANGARH	AJMER
100	MASUDA	AJMER
103	HINDOLI	KOTA
105	PATAN(SC)	KOTA
118	JHALRAPATAN	JHALAWAR
120	DAG(SC)	JHALAWAR
122	GANGRAR(SC)	CHITTORGARH
126	BADISADRI	CHITTORGARH
128	KUSHALGARH(ST)	BANSWARA(ST)
134	CHORASI(ST)	BANSWARA(ST)
137	LASADIA(ST)	SALUMBER(ST)
141	NATHDWARA	UDAIPUR
148	GONGUNDA(ST)	SALUMBER(ST)
151	MANDAL	BHILWARA
157	BANERA	BHILWARA
165	SUMERPUR	PALI
166	BALI	PALI
171	RANIWARA	JALORE(SC)
173	JALORE(SC)	JALORE(SC)
178	GUDAMALANI	BARMER
180	SHEO	BARMER
186	LUNI	JODHPUR
192	JAYAL(SC)	BIKANER
200	MUNDWA	NAGAUR