Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh

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Delhi ! Rajasthan !Chattisgarh

Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party	Actual vote in1998 (%)	Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)	Swing (%)	Actual number ofseats in 1998	Projected numberof seats for 2003
BJP	38.8	43.1	+4.3	83	147
INC	41.2	34.2	--7.0	124	58
Others	19.9	22.6	+2.7	23	25
Total	100	100	0	230	230

1. The reasons for intending to vote for a particular party

Respondents who had indicated aParty they would vote for in the coming elections were next asked to give their reasons of why they would votefor that Party. They were free to give one or more reasons.

Main reasons given for votingfor Congress and BJP by 10% or more of the respondents are summarized in the table below:

	Congress- I	BJP
Base : Would Vote for.....	2837	3575
% saying	%	%
Votingfrom beginning	19	10
Canresolve the issue of power crisis	14	20
Willmake roads	12	14
Canresolve issue of water scarcity	9	10
Donegood work	9	13
Willsolve problem of poverty	8	7
Willsolve state problem	8	10
Canmaintain laws & order	7	7
Willprovide more employment	7	11

Main reason for voting in favourof Congress (I) was that they had been voting for the party sincethe beginning. For all the other reasons given such as solving power crisis, making roads, solving waterproblems etc. the BJP received more mentions than Congress on a reason for voting for it.

2. Important issues facing the State today

Respondents were asked to statethe three main issues facing the State today. A large number ofproblems were mentioned. The main problems mentioned by over 10%of the respondents were:

	All Sample	Urban	Rural
Base : All respondents	8295	3832	4462
*% saying..*	%	%	%
Electricity/PowerSituation	77	76	78
Water Problem	55	52	57
Poor Condition ofroads in the State	45	45	46
Providingemployment Opportunities	39	44	36
Poverty	15	14	16
Improvement ofvillages	10	7	12
Providing bettereducation	10	9	11

As can be seen electricity/ powersituation, water problem, poor condition of roads in the State and unemployment are the main concerns amongthe people of Madhya Pradesh.

3. Whether Voted in 1998 Vidhan Sabhaelections

The respondents were next askedwhether they had voted in the last Vidhan Sabha elections that were held in 1998.

	All Sample	Urban	Rural
Base : All Sample	8295	3817	4478
*% who said they voted for ;*	%	%	%
Yes	87	86	89
No	13	14	11

87% of the respondents in thesample claimed that they had cast their votes in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections.

4. Party voted for in the 1998 VidhanSabha Elections Vs. Party intend to vote for now

	Party voted forin the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections
Base : Claim to have voted	Congress (I)	BJP
in 1998 for ..	2962	2883
Party intend to vote now
*% saying:*	%	%
Congress	79.6	4.5
BJP	11.5	89.7
Others	2.1	1.3
Don't know/Can'tsay	5.7	3.1

11.5% of the respondents in thesample who claimed to have voted in favour of Congress (I) in the last Vidhan Sabha Elections have said thatthey will vote for BJP this time. Whereas, only 4.5% of those whosaid they had voted for BJP now intend to vote for Congress (I) indicating a shift away from the Congress.

5. Reasonsfor Shifting away from Congress (I)

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base :those who claimed to have voted for Congress (I) last time butintend to vote for the BJP now	340	162	178
*%saying*	%	%	%
Not satisfied withtheir work	15	17	14
Power problem / Nopower supply	10	10	11
No development	9	7	10
Try different party	9	9	9
No employment	7	10	4

Most of the people are shiftingaway from Congress, as they seem to be dissatisfied with the work done by the Party especially in the field ofpower/electricity

6. Performance of Digvijay Singh asthe Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh

Ofthe 8295 people interviewed 85% were aware that . Digvijay Singh is the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh.

Therespondents were next asked to rate the performance of . Digvijay Singh of Congress (I) as the ChiefMinister during his 10 year tenure in Madhya Pradesh on a five-point scale ranging from “Very Good” to“Very Poor”. The responseswere:

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base : Allrespondents	8295	3817	4478
*% rating him*	%	%	%
VeryGood	6	5	7
Good	20	18	21
Average	18	18	18
Poor	30	31	29
VeryPoor	20	20	19
Don’tKnow / Can’t Say	6	8	5
MeanScore (Out of 5.0)	2.59	2.52	2.65

Theperformance of . Digvijay Singh as the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh was rated as Below Average on thescale. Overall,26% said that his performance has been Goodor Very Good, whereas, 50% say that it has been Poor or Very Poor.

7.Main failures of Digvijay Singh

Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past ten years as poor to very poor, wereasked the reasons for the same. The responses were:

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base:All those who rated performance of CM as poor or very poor	4115	1959	2157
*% saying*	%	%	%
Has not improvedelectricity/power situation in the State	45	47	44
Has not improvedroads in the State	19	21	18
Has not solved thewater Problem	19	18	20
Has not providedemployment opportunities	18	21	15
Has not done enoughfor overall development of the State	16	14	18

The main reasons for rating theperformance of Digvijay Singh as Poor to Very Poor were no improvement in power situation in the statefollowed by poor condition of roads, water problem and unemployment.

8.Opinions about the issue of opening the Bhojshala

Thoseinterviewed were next asked about the ‘Bhojshala’ issue. Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh . DigvijaySingh of Congress opened the Bhojshala for worship by both the Hindus and the Muslims.

Respondentswere asked to express their views about this action taken by the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister. Incase therespondent were not aware of this issue; the responses were coded under ‘Don’t Know/ Can’t say’.

Respondentswere asked whether the CM was right or wrong in his action. The responses were:

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base: No. interviewed	8295	3832	4462
*%saying*	%	%	%
Digvijay Singh/ Congress was rightin opening the Bhojshala for Hindus & Muslims	58	60	56
Digvijay Singh/ Congress was notright in opening the Bhojshala for Hindus & Muslims	18	16	20
Others	2	3	1
Don’t know / Can’t say	22	21	23

A majority of 59% of therespondents favoured Digvijay Singh’s step of opening the Bhojshala for worship by both Hindus andMuslims.

9.Opinions about . Digvijay Singh’s petition to the Prime Minister to banCow Slaughter

ChiefMinister of Madhya Pradesh . Digvijay Singh of Congress had sent a petition to the Prime Minister seekinga central legislation to ban cow slaughter.

Respondents were asked toexpress their views about this act of the Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister andwhether the CM was right or wrong in his action. The responses were:

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base: All respondents	8295	3832	4462
*% saying:*	%	%	%
Digvijay Singh is correct inwriting a petition to the Prime Minister	81	80	82
Digvijay Singh is not correct inwriting a petition to the Prime Minister	5	5	6
This issue is irrelevant	4	4	4
Others	0	1	0
Don’t know / Can’t say	9	10	9

81%of the respondents were of the opinion that . Digvijay Singh was correct in writing a petition to thePrime Minister to ban Cow Slaughter

10. Party that can enforce the ban on ‘Cow Slaughter’ inMadhya Pradesh

Respondentswere then informed that the bill to ban cow slaughter has been approved by the Union cabinet, but enforcing itin individual States is up to the State governments. They were asked to give their opinion, as to which of thetwo parties- Congress (I) or BJP will enforce the ban in the State.

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base:All Respondents	8295	3832	4462
*%saying*	%	%	%
BJP	45	46	44
Congress (I)	30	26	33
Bahujan Samaj Party(BSP)	6	6	6
Others	1	1	1
Don’t know / Can’t say	17	20	14

Overall,45% of the respondents felt that BJP was the party that will enforce the ban on cow slaughter in the State, ascompared to 30% who think Congress (I) will enforce the ban in the State.

11.Opinion about Ms. Uma Bharti contesting the elections after being charge sheeted in the Babri MasjidDemolition case

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base:All Respondents	8295	3832	4462
*%saying*	%	%	%
Yes, UmaBharati should contest the forth coming elections	66	66	66
No, Uma Bharatishould not contest the forth coming elections	29	29	30
Don’t know / Can’t say	4	5	4

Overall, 66% of therespondents felt that Uma Bharti should contest the forth coming elections

12. Most capable of being the next CM of Madhya Pradesh

The respondents were next askedwho, out of a list of names on a card was the most suitable person to become the Chief Minister of MadhyaPradesh. The responses received were:

	Allsample	Urban	Rural
Base : All sample	8295	3832	4462
*% saying*	%	%	%
UmaBharti	38	38	38
Digvijay Singh	28	25	30
Mayawati	5	5	6
Arjun Singh	3	3	3
Sundar LalPatwa	3	3	3
Kamal Nath	3	4	1
Don’t know / Can’t say	15	17	14

Overall,38% of the total sample covered, perceived Uma Bharti to be the most capable personfor becoming the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh, as compared to 28% who favouredDigvijay Singh.

List of Assembly Constituencies covered in Madhya Pradesh

ACNO.	ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY	PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCY
3	SABALGARH	MORENA
7	DIMNI (SC)	MORENA
13	RON	BHIND
20	DABRA	GWALIOR
22	SEONDHA (SC)	BHIND
25	POHRI	GUNA
34	MUNGAOLI	GUNA
36	KHURAI (SC)	SAGAR
39	SAGAR	SAGAR
45	KHARGAPUR (SC)	KHAJURAHO
47	MALEHRA	DAMOH
54	PATHARIA (SC)	DAMOH
59	MAIHAR	SATNA
67	GURH	REWA
71	DEOTALAB (SC)	REWA
76	DHAUHANI (ST)	SIDHI
83	KOTMA (ST)	SHAHDOL
177	BAIHAR (ST)	BALAGHAT
180	WARASEONI	BALAGHAT
188	BAJAG (ST)	MANDLA
196	JABALPUR CENTRAL	JABALPUR
199	MAJHOLI	SEONI
204	VIJAIRAGHOGARH	SATNA
206	BOHANI	HOSHANGABAD
211	KEOLARI	SEONI
215	CHHINDWARA	CHHINDWARA
224	ITARSI	HOSHANGABAD
229	MASOD	BETUL
237	SEHORE	BHOPAL
245	BHOJPUR	VIDHISHA
247	BASODA	VIDHISHA
251	BIAORA	RAJGARH
254	RAJGARH	RAJGARH
258	SHAJAPUR	SHAJAPUR
262	MAHIDPUR	UJJAIN
267	UJJAIN SOUTH	UJJAIN
271	INDORE-II	INDORE
277	SONKATCH (SC)	SHAHJAPUR
282	NIMARKHEDI	KHANDWA
284	KHANDWA	KHANDWA
292	KHARGONE	KHARGONE
297	BARWANI (ST)	DHAR
300	DHAR	DHAR
310	RATLAM RURAL	JHABUA
316	SUWASARA (SC)	MANDSAUR
318	MANDSAUR	MANDSAUR