ONE of Narasimha Rao's strongest bets in the East was Assam. But with Congress strongman Hiteswar Saikia's death on the eve of elections, the race has been thrown wide open—and a resurgent Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) may well improve its prospects at the hustings.
As news of Saikia's death reached the AGP strongholds of Nagaon and Tezpur, its supporters openly rejoiced. On the comeback trail, AGP veteran and one-time chief minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta couldn't have asked for a better chance. Though the Congress is hoping for a sympathy wave—the high command even nominated Saikia's widow, Hemaprabha Devi, as PCC chief—it is likely to work only in the Ahom-dominated areas of Sibsagar and Upper Assam. Saikia, being an Ahom himself, had nurtured his tribe astutely and was on the verge of working out autonomy packages for other minorities, including the Morans and Motoks.
The Congress is confident about retaining the tribal vote, but it is believed to be on a shaky ground where the Muslims are concerned. In the last elections, the Muslims, who total six million of the 22-million population and are mainly concentrated in the Nagaon, Barpeta, Karimganj and Hailakandi districts, had voted en bloc for the Congress. It is difficult to say which way they will swing now. The AGP struck up a last-minute deal with the CPI(M), CPI and other like-minded parties and, given the Left's sympathy for the community in the past, the crucial Muslim vote may go to the new alliance.
Perhaps the only thorn in the AGP's flesh is that in the absence of any dominant issues in this election, the party had been harping on the "misdeeds" and "corruption" of Saikia—a plank which has fallen flat somewhat after his death.
Saikia ruled Assam in two spells: from 1983 to 1985 and again, from 1991 to 1996. And during his stint, otherwise marred by corruption scandals and charges of nepotism, he did hold the Congress together and also broke the stranglehold of the ULFA on the state just when its activists were seeming particularly dangerous. This was in 1992 and Saikia, flush with the success of thwarting the ULFA, crowed to his colleagues: "Yes, I have finally managed to achieve what no one has been able to do—in Kashmir or in the northeast." He brought a semblance of order, if not peace, to a state that was drifting apart like its neighbours, Nagaland and Manipur.
But though Saikia did manage to wipe out the ULFA from the state—its top leaders took refuge in Bangladesh—he made ample room for those who surrendered from the organisations. These activists have come to hold a lot of clout in the state and are simply called the SULFA (Surrendered United Liberation Front of Assam activists). Within 36 hours of Saikia's cremation, ULFA activists killed six people, including the Congress candidate in Tinsukia, Upper Assam. A prominent ULFA leader, based in Bangladesh, telephoned the BBC office in Calcutta, expressing regret that his outfit could not take the credit for Saikia's death.
Saikia's biggest contribution, however, was to have held Assam together in the face of the total fragmentation of Assamese and non-Assamese communities. He had to work in a set-up where every ethnic group was pitted against the other—there was the Hindu-Muslim tension over the infiltration from Bangladesh; the cultural divide between the Assamese and Bengalis over the migrants' issue; the problems between the Ahomiyas and the different tribes (Bodos, Misings, Lalungs, Rajbongshis etc).
Saikia's successor, Bhumidhar Barman, has quite a task on his hands. There were rumblings of dissent in the party, especially after Saikia opted for 'new' and 'clean' faces for both the assembly and Lok Sabha elections. And though Barman tried to appease partymen by inducting 22 ministers days before polling—most of them held portfolios in Saikia's Cabinet—he might find it a bit too difficult to hold the party together as there are 70 Congress rebels in the fray and the Congress(T) has put up candidates in many seats. Besides, the mounting tribal uprising especially in the Bodo-dominated districts, and the escalating ULFA insurgency can only add to the Congress woes.
