Foul Weather Friends

At 24, Akbar Road, the Congress HQ, there is an air of expectancy. Post-Shimla, alliances are the new buzzword, now that Sonia Gandhi has finally made up her mind about tie-ups with "like-minded and secular" parties. Even pre-poll alliances are not ruled out. After the July 20 meeting of Opposition leaders at her house, talk of a secular coalition is very much in the air. But, the key question is just how such an alliance will evolve on the ground. More importantly, has the Congress really adapted itself to coalition culture?

But as soon as the Congress let out the word, allies began to see a coalition emerging. Staunch Congress supporter Laloo Yadav was first off the mark. "I hereby affirm my support to Soniaji," he said. "The political atmosphere in the country will change now." He added such an alliance was necessary to break the BJP's communal hold over the country.

There have been other similar noises. DMK president M. Karunanidhi has said that Sonia's Shimla sankalp "might result in a political change at the national level". The bonhomie between the DMK's state unit and the Congress has been marked since February 2003 (it even opted out of the race in the Sattankulam assembly byelections, virtually campaigning for the Congress against arch foe AIADMK). So it's likely that the DMK will suppress its old animosity with the Congress to fight Jayalalitha.

In UP, where the Congress' coalition hopes will doubtless be put to its sternest test, the Samajwadi Party, a strong rival and now a potential ally, says it is looking at the finer print. "We are looking at the modalities for an accord with the Congress. An alliance will suit the secular forces," says SP general secretary Amar Singh, guardedly. A 'manthan baithak' of the SP later this month in Agra will make the picture clear.

In Maharashtra, where common enemies glue the Congress in a frosty tie-up with Sharad Pawar's NCP, there are indications of a thaw. "We are examining the prospects of an alliance with the Congress at the national level," Pawar said, even though there was no clarity about whether Sonia Gandhi's leadership was going to be acceptable to him. On a tour of Bihar, Dalit leader Ram Vilas Paswan said the Congress decision was "most welcome" and that it would lead to "a new realignment of political forces."

Though the Left has been supportive of the Congress, the CPI(M)'s history precludes it joining a Sonia-led government. Its leader, Nilotpal Basu, doesn't however rule out outside support for the Congress. "While we oppose Congress's economic policies, which are the same as the BJP's, the Congress is not a communal party. We will support anyone who can drive the BJP out of power," he says.

Those within the Congress are confident that an Opposition coalition is a virtual certainty. Says spokesperson Jaipal Reddy: "The Congress alliance is as good as sealed. Only the modalities need to be worked out." But key Congress leaders and advisors to Sonia are still in an exploring mode. "We have an open mind. Alliances are a continuous process. Different political parties, as you can see, are responding in their own ways to our Shimla sankalp. Our alliance cannot be like the NDA, which is opportunistic," says key Sonia advisor Ambika Soni.

But does the Congress have it in itself to work out alliances? A stray UP by-election last fortnight was revealing. At Chiraigaon, an SP stronghold, the BJP-BSP went headlong with a joint campaign. When SP leaders made oblique approaches to the Congress, it backfired. Five Congress chief ministers descended upon the constituency and launched a scathing attack on the SP. The party also fielded a candidate. The result: the Congress managed only 4,000 votes and helped the BJP-BSP pull off an upset.

But with regional leaders like Ajit Singh in western UP extending their support, Congress leaders say that more and more people will want to tie up with the party. In Chennai the state Congress president, E.V.K.S. Elangovan, has good things to say about the DMK. "We consider the DMK secular. However, there is no question of aligning with the party so long as it remains in the NDA,'' he says.

Meanwhile, BJP president Venkaiah Naidu has rubbished the Congress claim on alliances saying that the "party is trying to copy the BJP, aware as it is of the ground realities". In the days to come, setting up a credible alliance will be the big challenge before the party. If it succeeds, there is likely to be a straight BJP-led coalition vs a Congress-led combine contest in the 2004 elections.