Delhi
Voting intention and seatforecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections
Party | Actual vote in1998 (%) | Voting intentionfor 2003 (%) | Swing (%) | Actual number ofseats in 1998 | Projected numberof seats for 2003 |
BJP | 34.0 | 33.4 | --0.6 | 15 | 11 |
INC | 47.8 | 49.7 | +1.9 | 52 | 56 |
Others | 18.2 | 16.9 | --1.3 | 3 | 3 |
Total | 100 | 100 | 0 | 70 | 70 |
1. The reasons for intending to vote for a particular party
Respondents who had indicated a Party they would vote for in the coming elections were next asked to give their reasons of why they would vote for that Party. They were free to give one or more reasons. The reasons given for voting Congress and BJP are summarized in the table below :
| Congress- I | BJP |
Base : Would Votefor..... | 1514 | 1018 |
% saying | % | % |
It can ensure justice for poor | 27 | 20 |
It can control rising prices | 22 | 21 |
It can maintain law and order | 17 | 19 |
It will provide more employment | 14 | 15 |
It will fight terrorism | 14 | 26 |
Because of the leader of theparty | 14 | 18 |
It can bring down corruption /reduce corruption | 13 | 21 |
It will solve state's problems | 12 | 14 |
It stands for communalharmony/protects minorities | 11 | 8 |
It can improve villages | 10 | 12 |
Old party | 9 | 0 |
It will help farmers | 8 | 13 |
Does development work | 8 | 11 |
Good party | 7 | 11 |
Where as the main reasons for intending to vote for BJP isthat it is competent in fighting against terrorism, it can reduce corruption and leader of the party.
2. Important issues facing the State today
Respondents were asked to statethe three main issues facing the State today. A large number ofproblems were mentioned. The main problems mentioned by over 10%of the respondents were :
|
| AllSample |
Base : All respondents | 3047 |
% saying.. | % |
Providing employment opportunities | 30 |
Water problem | 28 |
Electricity / Power situation | 24 |
Poverty | 21 |
Overall development of Delhi | 21 |
Improving roads in Delhi | 15 |
Maintaining law & order | 13 |
Corruption | 11 |
High price | 9 |
As can be seen employmentopportunities, water supply and power situation are the main concerns among the people of Delhi.
3.Whether Voted in 1998 Vidhan Sabha elections
The respondents were next asked whether they had voted in the last Vidhan Sabhaelections that were held in 1998.
| All Sample |
Base : All Sample | 3047 |
% who said they voted for ; | % |
Yes | 83 |
No | 17 |
83% of the respondents in the sample claimed that they had cast their votes in the 1998 Vidhan SabhaElections.
4.Party voted for in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections Vs. Party intend to vote for now
| Partyvoted for in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections | |
Base : Claim to have voted in | Congress(I) | BJP |
1998 for .. | 1191 | 975 |
Party intend to vote now | | |
% saying: | % | % |
Congress - I | 88.8 | 10.7 |
BJP | 2.7 | 80.4 |
Others / INDP | 1.5 | 1.3 |
Don’t know / Can’t say | 6.9 | 7.7 |
Only 2.7% of the respondents inthe sample who claimed to have voted in favour of Congress (I) in the last Vidhan Sabha Elections have saidthat they intend to vote for BJP this time. Where as 10.7% ofthose said they had voted for BJP in the 1998 elections now intend to vote for Congress (I).
Base : Those who claimed tohave voted for Congress (I) last time but now intend to vote forBJP | 32* |
% saying… | % |
Does good development work (BJP) | 35 |
Want to change the Govt. | 14 |
Overall good performance (BJP) | 12 |
* small base
As can be seen from thetable above, it is mainly the development work done by BJP in the past has attracted people to BJP away fromthe INC.
6. Reasons for Shiftingaway from BJP
The respondents who said thatthey intend to vote for Congress (I) were asked the reasons for not intending to vote for the BJP. The mainreasons mentioned were:
Base : Those who claimed tohave voted for BJP last time but now intend to vote for Congress(I) | 104 |
% saying… | % |
Does good development work (INC) | 31 |
Overall good performance (INC) | 11 |
Have good leader (INC) | 11 |
Reduce corruption | 10 |
Themain reasons for voting for Congress and not preferring BJP were, good development work done by the Congress(31%).
7.Performance of Sheila Dikshit as the Chief Minister of Delhi
Respondents were next asked torate the performance of Sheila Dikshit of Congress (I) as the Chief Minister during her 5-year tenure inDelhi. Responses are as mentioned below:
| AllSample |
Base : Allrespondents | 3047 |
% saying.. | % |
VeryGood | 16 |
Good | 26 |
Average | 32 |
Poor | 14 |
VeryPoor | 5 |
Don’tKnow / Can’t Say | 7 |
Meanscore (out of 5) | 3.35 |
8. Main achievements of Sheila Dikshit
Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past five years as very good or good wereasked the reasons for the same. The responses were:
Base: All thosewho rated performance of CM as very good or good | 1258 |
%saying: | % |
Constructedflyovers | 53 |
She started theMetro rail in Delhi | 48 |
Has improvedelectricity / Power situation | 44 |
Improved roads inDelhi | 42 |
Has done a lot foroverall development of Delhi | 41 |
Has solved thewater problem | 30 |
Has reduce povertylevels in Delhi | 14 |
Provided bettereducation | 11 |
Involvedpeople in schemes like “Bhagidari Scheme “ | 6 |
Main reasons mentioned wereconstruction of flyovers in the state, followed by starting up of Metro railway in Delhi, improvement in powersituation and the condition of roads in the state. Indeed a good report for the CM.
9. Main failures of Sheila Dikshit
Allthose respondents who had rated the performance of the CM in the past five years as poor or very poor, wereasked the reasons for the same. The responses were:
Base:All those who rated performance of CM as poor or very poor | 532 |
%saying : | % |
Has not improvedelectricity / Power situation | 48 |
Has not solved thewater problem | 48 |
Has not done enoughto reduce poverty levels in Delhi | 36 |
Has not done enoughfor overall development of Delhi | 30 |
Has not improvedroads in Delhi | 22 |
Traffic situationhas worsened in Delhi | 19 |
Has not providedEmployment opportunities | 19 |
Corruption hasgrown. | 18 |
Public transportsystem has not improved in Delhi | 13 |
Has not Providedgood education facilities | 10 |
She is notapproachable by people | 9 |
Those who had rated theperformance of Smt. Dikshit as poor to very poor feel that she has not been able to improve the powersituation and water problem in Delhi.
10. Opinionon Bhagidari Scheme by Sheila Dikshit
Therespondents were asked for their opinion about the Bhagidari Scheme started by Sheila Dikshit. The viewsof the respondents are mentioned below:
Base:All Respondents | 3047 |
%saying : | % |
BhagidariScheme is an effective forum for the local people to voice their concerns | 26 |
BhagidariScheme is ineffective and just a political gimmick by the Delhi Government | 20 |
Other opinions | 4 |
Don’tknow / Can’t say | 50 |
Halfthe respondents seem to be unaware of the Bhagidari Scheme launched by Sheila Dikshit. The opinion seemsto be somewhat positive among those who said they were aware of the Bhagidari Scheme, 26% think it is aneffective forum for the local people to voice their concerns while 20% feel that it is ineffective and just apolitical gimmick by the Delhi Government.
11. Conversion of public transport into using CNG as fuel
Therespondents were asked that who in their opinion has brought about the conversion of public transport intousing CNG as fuel. The responses are mentioned below:
Base:All Respondents | 3047 |
%saying : | % |
The Delhi StateGovernment | 16 |
|
| 11 |
The Supreme Court | 55 |
Don’tknow / Can’t say | 18 |
Morethan half (55%) of the respondents are of the opinion that the Supreme Court is responsible for the conversionof public transport in Delhi into using CNG as a fuel.
12.Party claim over several things in Delhi
Therespondents were asked that according to them which parties do they think is responsible for certain events inDelhi.
Base:All respondents | Congress(I) | BJP | BothCongress and BJP | Don’tknow / Can’t say |
%saying…: | % | % | % | % |
Grantingfull statehood to Delhi | 21 | 23 | 31 | 25 |
TheMetro railway for Delhi | 35 | 26 | 23 | 16 |
Constructionof flyovers in Delhi | 46 | 18 | 20 | 16 |
Respondents are of the opinionthat granting of full statehood to Delhi has been a combined effort of Congress(I) and BJP but a larger proportion of the respondents feel that the starting of Metro and the construction of flyoversin Delhi have been possible due to the efforts of the Congress(I). government in the state.
13.Most capable of being the next CM of Delhi
Therespondents were asked who in their opinion is the most capable of being the next Chief Minister of Delhi. Theviews of the respondents are mentioned below:
|
| 3047 |
% saying : | % |
|
| 48 |
Madan LalKhurana | 25 |
Sushma Swaraj | 10 |
Jagdish Tytler | 2 |
Sahib SinghVerma | 3 |
Don’t Know/Can’t Say | 8 |
About half therespondents (48%) feel that Sheila Dikshit is the most capable of being the Chief Minister of Delhi. Aquarter of the respondents are of the opinion that Madan Lal Khurana of BJP is the most capable of beingthe next CM of Delhi.
14a.Reasons for preferring Sheila Dikshit as CM
Respondents who hadindicated Sheila Dikshit as being the most capable of becoming the CM of Delhi were next asked to givetheir reasons for preferring her. They were free to give one or more reasons.
Base: Thosepreferring Sheila Dikshit as next CM | 1450 |
% saying: | % |
Donedevelopment work / good work | 23 |
Goodperformance of track record | 22 |
Heis honest / clean image | 21 |
Sheis a hardworking | 12 |
Helpthe poor people | 10 |
Sheis a popular leader | 9 |
Sheila Dikshitas the most capable of becoming the next CM of Delhi because she has done good development work, has a goodperformance track record and her honest clean image.
14b. Reasons forpreferring Madan Lal Khurana as CM
Respondents who hadindicated Madan Lal Khurana as being the most capable of becoming the CM of Delhi were next asked to givetheir reasons for preferring him. They were free to give one or more reasons.
Base: Thosepreferring Madan Lal Khurana as next CM | 756 |
% saying: | % |
Heis honest / clean image | 25 |
Donedevelopment work / good work | 22 |
Goodperformance of track record | 19 |
Heis a Popular leader | 17 |
Heis a hardworking | 13 |
Helpthe poor people | 8 |
Heis a experience political leader | 8 |
Madan Lal Khurana is preferred asthe next CM of Delhi mainly because of his honest/clean image and he has done good development work in thestate and has a good performance track record.
List of Assembly Constituencies covered in Delhi
AC NO. | ASSEMBLYCONSTITUENCY | PARLIAMENTARYCONSTITUENCY |
4 | KASTURBA NAGAR | NEW DELHI |
10 | R.K.PURAM | SOUTH DELHI |
12 | JANAK PURI | SOUTH DELHI |
14 | TILAK NAGAR | SOUTH DELHI |
18 | SHAKURBASTI | OUTER DELHI |
20 | BADLI | OUTER DELHI |
23 | SULTANPUR MAJRA(SC) |
|
32 | MEHRAULI | OUTER DELHI |
39 | MANDAWALI | EAST DELHI |
47 | ROHTAS NAGAR | EAST DELHI |
50 | GHONDA | EAST DELHI |
54 | NARELA (SC) | EAST DELHI |
55 | BHALSWA JAHANGIRPUR | EAST DELHI |
57 | PAHAR GANJ | CHANDNI CHOWK |
63 | KAMLA NAGAR | DELHI SADAR |
66 | PATEL NAGAR | KAROL BAGH (SC) |
68 | KAROL BAGH (SC) | KAROL BAGH (SC) |
