Congress, Uf On The Backfoot

Political parties are making attempts to blur the distinction between analysis and political advantage with varying claims and counter-claims. But the significance of these byelections is that the results are being used by parties not only to jostle for   position and gain as much of a psychological advantage as possible, but also to apply pressure on allies and opponents alike.

Take the showing of the United Front. The loss of the Ramanagara and Chikkanayakanahalli assembly seats and the lone legislative council seat in Karnataka has come as a rude jolt to the Janata Dal. The Dal candidate from Ramanagara, cine star Ambarish, was handpicked by Gowda and his son H.D. Kumaraswamy, MP from Kanakapura under which the seat falls. And his losing the Prime Minister’s erstwhile constituency has been, in the words of Karnataka Chief Minister J.H. Patel, a "cruel punishment". The other Front constituents just about broke even. Ajit Singh retained his Baghpat Lok Sabha seat in western Uttar Pradesh, which he had quit when he left the Congress to set-up the B K K P. The Samajwadi Party retained the assembly seats of Maniram and Sahaswan in the same state and the D M K won the Pudukottai assembly seat in Tamil Nadu, though with a reduced margin. But that was it.

"One string of byelections does not mean that our policies have been rejected," was the reaction of Janata Dal working president Sharad Yadav, but nobody was buying it. Including the Dal’s allies. The C P I(M) was quick to pounce on the losses and pressurise the Prime Minister. "This is a result of ignoring the Common Minimum Programme. It should serve as a warning for the Government that escalating prices have hit the common man. Now at least, the Budget should have pro-people policies," said a C P I(M) politburo member.

And let the cat out of the bag. The coalition partners realised that the results did not really matter but the loss of face for Gowda should be taken advantage of to push their own agenda. "That is what coalition politics is about," quipped a Dal leader. Sources said that others in the Front unhappy with Gowda’s style of functioning had also begun to murmur, but quietened down when C P I(M) General Secretary H.K.S. Surjeet intervened to tone down his party’s stand "in the interest of the United F ront". Ironically, the Front stands to gain from the results. Because with a strong B J P, a weak Congress would not withdraw support.

The B J P emerged the clear victor from the bypolls— it wrested the Chhindwara (Madhya Pradesh) and Nagaur (Rajasthan) Lok Sabha seats which the Congress had held since 1952 and 1971, respectively, defeating former Union ministers Kamal Nath and Ram Niwas Mirdha. It held its own in Uttar Pradesh by retaining the assembly seats of Debai and Shikharpur. And it picked up the lone assembly seats which went to the polls in Gujarat (Sarkhej) and Rajasthan (Phulera). Its allies too did well, with the Shiv Sena picking up the Niphad seat in Maharashtra and the Akali Dal (Badal) candidate trouncing Congress leader and former Union home minister Buta Singh in the Ropar Lok Sabha seat.

The gains for the B J P are there for all to see. They have the psychological advantage as a party once again on the upsurge  and the party think-tank has over the past few years been a great votary of the "positive effect of the atmosphere of winning". B J P leaders feel that the bypoll results will give an impetus to the party ’s attempts to create this atmosphere of an imminent B J P win in the next general elections and help build public opinion in its favour. Organisationally, the wins in Rajasthan and Gujarat have come as a big boost as the party had been plagued by dissent in both states. The wins in Rajasthan, both in the Lok Sabha and assembly seats, have also given the party a foothold in the erstwhile Congress Jat bastions.

But the uncomfortable truth is that, despite the sensational wins of Sunder Lal Patwa in Chhindwara and Bhanu Pratap Mirdhain Nagaur, what the B J P has basically re inforced is that it is a very strong force in the North and the West of the country. Something which was clear in the 1996 general elections when the party did exceedingly well in both these regions. The South and the East of the country remain largely unreceptive to the B J P’s message and it is near impossible to rule Delhi without at least a modest electoral perf o rmance in these two regions. Or some allies.

As for the Congress, the results have only confirmed that it is seemingly incapable of arresting its downward slide and that Sitaram Kesri’s honeymoon is over. Drawing attention to the demands being made by Rao loyalists for an "emergency A I C C session " to discuss the poor performance of the party in the Punjab elections and the bypolls, a senior United Front leader says: "At least we can explain away the pressures being brought on Gowda after the poor showing in the bypolls in terms of being a coalition. In the Congress, with both Rao and Sharad Pawar waiting in the wings though with different ambitions, it is a naked power struggle at worst and a jostling for positions at best."

After the rout in Punjab, the losses in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu and the defeat of both hawala-tainted leaders given tickets, the Congress president’s ambitions of leading a revitalised party to power have suffered a big blow. "But if we forget Punjab for the moment, we are on cloud nine having wrested the Ramanagara seat from Gowda," said a senior Congress leader in Bangalore. A small consolation indeed.