Chhattisgarh

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Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Actual vote in1998 (%)

Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)

Swing

(%)

Actual number ofseats in 1998

Projected numberof seats for 2003

BJP

39.5

40.0

+0.5

36

43

INC

41.0

40.0

--1.0

48

43

Others

19.5

20.0

+0.5

6

4

Total

100

100

0

90

90

1. The reasons for intending to vote for aparticular party

Respondents who had indicated a Party they would vote for in the comingelections were next asked to give their reasons of why they would vote for that Party.They were free to give one or more reasons.

Main reasons given for voting for Congress and BJP by 10% or more of the respondentsare summarized in the table below:

Congress- I

BJP

Base : Would Vote for.....

1261

1310

% saying

%

%

Will make roads

28

19

Can resolve issue of water scarcity

22

17

Will solve state problem

22

28

Can resolve the issue of power crisis

20

15

Voting from beginning

17

8

Will solve problem of poverty

10

6

Done good work

10

10

Will provide more employment

9

10

The main reasons for voting in favour of Congress (I) or the BJP weremore or less similar and related to the development in the state particularly the infrastructure. 

2. Important issues facing the State today

Respondents were asked to state the three main issues facing the Statetoday. A large number of problems were mentioned.The main problems mentioned by over 10% of the respondents were :

As can be seen providing employment opportunities, water problem andimproving roads in Chattisgarh are the main concerns among the people of Chattisgarh.

3. Whether Voted in 1998 Vidhan Sabhaelections

The respondents were next asked whether they had voted in the lastVidhan Sabha elections that were held in 1998.

AllSample

Urban

Rural

Base : All Sample

3266

1079

2187

% who said they voted for ;

%

%

%

Yes

85

83

85

No

15

17

17

85%of the respondents in the sample claimed that they had cast theirvotes in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections.

4. Party voted for in the 1998 VidhanSabha Elections Vs. Party intend to vote for now

Party voted for in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections

Base: Claim to have voted in

Congress(I)

BJP

1998 for

1157

1102

Party intend to vote now

% saying:

%

%

Congress - I

75

6

BJP

9

78

BSP (Mayawati)

1

1

NCP

2

2

Don't Know/Can't Say

13

13

9% of the respondents in the sample who claimed to have voted in favourof Congress (I) in the last Vidhan Sabha Elections have said that they will vote for BJP this time.Where as only 6% of those who said they had voted for BJP now intend to vote for Congress (I)indicating some shift away from the Congress. 

5. Reasons for Shifting away from Congress(I)

Sample

Base : those who claimed to have voted for Congress (I)last time but now intend to vote for the BJP

99

% saying…

%

Not satisfied with their work

14

Want to try BJP

13

Corrupt

5

No development

5

Done good work (BJP)

4

No power supply

4

Will solve state problem

3

Village development

3

Didn't solve problems

3

Don’t Know/ Can’t Say

31

Most of the people are shifting away from Congress, because they are nothappy with the work done by Congress in last ten years. 

6. Performance of Ajit Jogi as theChief Minister of Chattisgarh

Ofthe 3266 people interviewed 85% were aware that Ajit Jogi is the Chief Minister of Chattisgarh.Awareness was relatively more in rural areas compared to urban areas.

Therespondents were next asked to rate the performance of Ajit Jogi of Congress (I) as the Chief Ministerduring his tenure in Chattisgarh on a five-point scale ranging from “Very Good” to “Very Poor”.The responses were: 

Theperformance of Ajit Jogi as the Chief Minister of Chattisgarh has been rated as average by 29% of therespondents. Overall, 30% say that his performance has been Good or Very Good whereas about an equalproportion 29% say it has been poor or very poor.

Hegets a ‘just below average’ rating of 2.98 on a 5-point scale. 

7. Main achievements of Ajit Jogi

All those respondents who had rated the performance ofthe CM as very good or good, were asked the reasons for the same. The main responses were:

AllSample

Urban

Rural

Base: All those who rated performance of CMas very good or good

970

318

651

% saying

%

%

%

Improved roads in the State

45

43

44

Has solved the water Problem

34

26

38

Has done a lot for overall development of the State

30

29

30

Has improved power situation in the State

18

20

17

Provided better education

15

12

16

Has reduced poverty levels in the State

11

12

10

Provided employment opportunities

9

13

7

The main achievementsof Ajit Jogi as CM of Chattisgarh are improvement in the condition of the roads in the state (45%)followed by solving water problem (34%) and overall development of the state (30%).

8.Main failures ofAjit Jogi

All those respondents who had rated the performance ofthe CM as poor to very poor, were asked the reasons for the same. The responses were:

Urban

Rural

Base: All those who rated performance of CM as poor to very poor

942

245

696

% saying

%

%

%

Has not done enough for overall development of the State

51

40

55

Corruption has grown

23

25

22

Has not improved roads in the State

16

18

15

Has not provided employment opportunities

14

21

12

Has not improved electricity/power situation in the State

12

12

12

Has not solved the water Problem

11

8

12

Has not done enough to reduce poverty levels in the State

10

12

9

More than half therespondents are of the opinion that Ajit Jogi has not done enough for overall development of the State.Whereas 23% of respondents feel that corruption has grown in the state. 

9.Opinion about allegations against Ajit Jogi ofprocuring ‘fake tribal’ certificate

The respondents were then told that theformer Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and BSP leader Mayawati has alleged Ajit Jogi of procuring ‘faketribal’ certificate and then they were asked what was their opinion about it. Theresponses are:

More than half the respondents areeither unaware about the allegation or have not given a response to this. More than a quarter of therespondents are of the opinion that allegation against Ajit Jogi is true.

10.Opinion about forgery charges against AjitJogi

The respondents were then told that Ajit Jogihas been charged with forging an Intelligence Bureau document and were asked what was their opinion about it. Theresponses are:

11. Opinion about Ajit Jogi leading the party even after CBI charge sheet

The respondents were asked whetherAjitJogi should still lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha Elections, despite the CBI chargesheet. The responses are:

12. Ifnot Ajit Jogi then who should lead the party in the forth-coming elections

Therespondents who said that Ajit Jogi should not lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan SabhaElections, were further asked then who else should lead the party.

About a quarter (23%) of those who said that Ajit Jogi should notlead the party, say that a Tribal candidate should lead the Congress party whileanother quarter said that an OBC candidate should lead the Congress party in the forth comingVidhan Sabha Elections.

13.Most capable of being the next CM of Chattisgarh

The respondents were asked who in their opinion, out oflist, was the most capable of being the next Chief Minister of Chattisgarh. The views of the respondents arementioned below:

A larger proportion(31%) of the respondents, perceived Ajit Jogi to be the most capable person for becoming the Chief Minister ofChattisgarh, as compared to only 17% who favoured Dilip Singh Judev of BJP. This is partly because theBJP has not projected any one for the Chief Ministership before the elections.

A large proportion of29% did not mention or give their opinion on who is the most capable of being the next Chief Minister of Chattisgarh.

If Dilip Singh Judevis removed from the elections then it would give further boost to Ajit Jogi. 

14a. Reasons for preferring AjitJogi as CM

Respondents who had indicated Ajit Jogi as being the most capable ofbecoming the CM of Chattisgarh were next asked to give their reasons for preferring him. They were free togive one or more reasons.

31% of those favouring Jogi said they prefer him because he has done good workin the state.

14b. Reasons for preferring Dilip Singh Judev as CM

Respondents who had indicated Dilip Singh Judev asbeing the most capable of becoming the CM of Chattisgarh were next asked to give their reasons for preferringhim. They were free to give one or more reasons.

The main reasons for preferring Judev are that he can solve the problems in the state and he is perceived to be a good leader.

List of Assembly Constituenciescovered in Chhattisgarh

NO.

ASSEMBLYCONSTITUENCY

PARLIAMENTARYCONSTITUENCY

3

PREMNAGAR(ST)

SURGUJA(ST)

9

AMBIKAPUR(ST)

SURGUJA(ST)

13

TAPKARA(ST)

RAIGARH(ST)

18

KHARSIA

RAIGARH(ST)

33

SIPAT

JANJGIR

37

SAKTI

JANJGIR

1

MANENDRAGARH(ST)

BILASPUR(SC)

30

BILASPUR

BILASPUR(SC)

39

CHANDRAPUR

SARANGARH(SC)

48

PALARI(SC)

SARANGARH(SC)

41

RAIPURRURAL

RAIPUR

42

ABHANPUR

RAIPUR

53

SARAIPALI

MAHASAMUND

52

BINDRANAWAGARH(ST)

MAHASAMUND

60

BHANUPRATAPPUR(ST)

KANKER(ST)

82

DONDILOHARA (ST)

KANKER(ST)

67

KESLUR(ST)

BASTAR(ST)

69

DANTEWADA(ST)

BASTAR(ST)

75

DHAMDHA

DURG

80

KHERTHA

DURG

87

DONGARGARH

RAJNANDGAON

90

KAWARDHA

RAJNANDGAON

MainPage ! SurveyHighlights And Methodology
Delhi ! Madhya Pradesh ! Rajasthan