Chhattisgarh

Chhatisgarh

MainPage ! SurveyHighlights And Methodology
Delhi ! Madhya Pradesh ! Rajasthan

Voting intention and seat forecast for coming Vidhan Sabha elections

Party	Actual vote in1998 (%)	Voting intentionfor 2003 (%)	Swing (%)	Actual number ofseats in 1998	Projected numberof seats for 2003
BJP	39.5	40.0	+0.5	36	43
INC	41.0	40.0	--1.0	48	43
Others	19.5	20.0	+0.5	6	4
Total	100	100	0	90	90

1. The reasons for intending to vote for aparticular party

Respondents who had indicated a Party they would vote for in the comingelections were next asked to give their reasons of why they would vote for that Party.They were free to give one or more reasons.

Main reasons given for voting for Congress and BJP by 10% or more of the respondentsare summarized in the table below:

	Congress- I	BJP
Base : Would Vote for.....	1261	1310
*% saying*	%	%
Will make roads	28	19
Can resolve issue of water scarcity	22	17
Will solve state problem	22	28
Can resolve the issue of power crisis	20	15
Voting from beginning	17	8
Will solve problem of poverty	10	6
Done good work	10	10
Will provide more employment	9	10

The main reasons for voting in favour of Congress (I) or the BJP weremore or less similar and related to the development in the state particularly the infrastructure.

2. Important issues facing the State today

Respondents were asked to state the three main issues facing the Statetoday. A large number of problems were mentioned.The main problems mentioned by over 10% of the respondents were :

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base : Allrespondents	3266	1079	2187
*% saying..*	%	%	%
Providing employment opportunities	60	67	57
Water problem	45	32	52
Improving roads in the state	38	31	41
Poverty	32	36	29
Electricity/Powder situation	32	26	35
Improvement of villages	17	13	19
Providing better education	15	17	14

As can be seen providing employment opportunities, water problem andimproving roads in Chattisgarh are the main concerns among the people of Chattisgarh.

3. Whether Voted in 1998 Vidhan Sabhaelections

The respondents were next asked whether they had voted in the lastVidhan Sabha elections that were held in 1998.

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base : All Sample	3266	1079	2187
*% who said they voted for ;*	%	%	%
Yes	85	83	85
No	15	17	17

85%of the respondents in the sample claimed that they had cast theirvotes in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections.

4. Party voted for in the 1998 VidhanSabha Elections Vs. Party intend to vote for now

	Party voted for in the 1998 Vidhan Sabha Elections
Base: Claim to have voted in	Congress(I)	BJP
1998 for	1157	1102
Party intend to vote now
*% saying:*	%	%
Congress - I	75	6
BJP	9	78
BSP (Mayawati)	1	1
NCP	2	2
Don't Know/Can't Say	13	13

9% of the respondents in the sample who claimed to have voted in favourof Congress (I) in the last Vidhan Sabha Elections have said that they will vote for BJP this time.Where as only 6% of those who said they had voted for BJP now intend to vote for Congress (I)indicating some shift away from the Congress.

5. Reasons for Shifting away from Congress(I)

	Sample
Base : those who claimed to have voted for Congress (I)last time but now intend to vote for the BJP	99
*% saying…*	%
Not satisfied with their work	14
Want to try BJP	13
Corrupt	5
No development	5
Done good work (BJP)	4
No power supply	4
Will solve state problem	3
Village development	3
Didn't solve problems	3
Don’t Know/ Can’t Say	31

Most of the people are shifting away from Congress, because they are nothappy with the work done by Congress in last ten years.

6. Performance of Ajit Jogi as theChief Minister of Chattisgarh

Ofthe 3266 people interviewed 85% were aware that Ajit Jogi is the Chief Minister of Chattisgarh.Awareness was relatively more in rural areas compared to urban areas.

Therespondents were next asked to rate the performance of Ajit Jogi of Congress (I) as the Chief Ministerduring his tenure in Chattisgarh on a five-point scale ranging from “Very Good” to “Very Poor”.The responses were:

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base : All respondents	3266	1079	2187
*% rating him*	%	%	%
Very Good	7	9	6
Good	23	21	24
Average	29	33	27
Poor	20	14	22
Very Poor	9	9	9
Don’t Know / Can’t Say	12	15	11
Mean Score (out of 5)	2.98	3.08	2.94

Theperformance of Ajit Jogi as the Chief Minister of Chattisgarh has been rated as average by 29% of therespondents. Overall, 30% say that his performance has been Good or Very Good whereas about an equalproportion 29% say it has been poor or very poor.

Hegets a ‘just below average’ rating of 2.98 on a 5-point scale.

7. Main achievements of Ajit Jogi

All those respondents who had rated the performance ofthe CM as very good or good, were asked the reasons for the same. The main responses were:

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base: All those who rated performance of CMas very good or good	970	318	651
*% saying*	%	%	%
Improved roads in the State	45	43	44
Has solved the water Problem	34	26	38
Has done a lot for overall development of the State	30	29	30
Has improved power situation in the State	18	20	17
Provided better education	15	12	16
Has reduced poverty levels in the State	11	12	10
Provided employment opportunities	9	13	7

The main achievementsof Ajit Jogi as CM of Chattisgarh are improvement in the condition of the roads in the state (45%)followed by solving water problem (34%) and overall development of the state (30%).

8.Main failures ofAjit Jogi

All those respondents who had rated the performance ofthe CM as poor to very poor, were asked the reasons for the same. The responses were:

	AllSample	Urban	Rural
Base: All those who rated performance of CM as poor to very poor	942	245	696
% saying	%	%	%
Has not done enough for overall development of the State	51	40	55
Corruption has grown	23	25	22
Has not improved roads in the State	16	18	15
Has not provided employment opportunities	14	21	12
Has not improved electricity/power situation in the State	12	12	12
Has not solved the water Problem	11	8	12
Has not done enough to reduce poverty levels in the State	10	12	9

More than half therespondents are of the opinion that Ajit Jogi has not done enough for overall development of the State.Whereas 23% of respondents feel that corruption has grown in the state.

9.Opinion about allegations against Ajit Jogi ofprocuring ‘fake tribal’ certificate

The respondents were then told that theformer Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister and BSP leader Mayawati has alleged Ajit Jogi of procuring ‘faketribal’ certificate and then they were asked what was their opinion about it. Theresponses are:

	All sample	Urban	Rural
Base : All respondents	3266	1079	2187
*% saying*	%	%	%
Theallegations against Ajit Jogi are true	27	26	27
Theallegations are false and aimed at tarnishing the image of Ajit Jogi	17	17	17
Unawareof such allegations	25	24	25
Don’tknow / Can’t say	31	32	30

More than half the respondents areeither unaware about the allegation or have not given a response to this. More than a quarter of therespondents are of the opinion that allegation against Ajit Jogi is true.

10.Opinion about forgery charges against AjitJogi

The respondents were then told that Ajit Jogihas been charged with forging an Intelligence Bureau document and were asked what was their opinion about it. Theresponses are:

	All sample	Urban	Rural
Base : All respondents	3266	1079	2187
*% saying*	%	%	%
Ajit Jogi is guilty of forgery	24	22	25
Ajit Jogi is not guilty of forgery	17	16	17
Unawareof this issue	26	24	26
Don’tknow / Can’t say	33	36	32

11. Opinion about Ajit Jogi leading the party even after CBI charge sheet

The respondents were asked whetherAjitJogi should still lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha Elections, despite the CBI chargesheet. The responses are:

	All sample	Urban	Rural
Base : All respondents	3266	1079	2187
*% saying*	%	%	%
Yes,Ajit Jogi should still lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha elections	48	47	48
No,Ajit Jogi should not lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan Sabha elections	28	26	29
Don’tknow / Can’t say	24	26	23

12. Ifnot Ajit Jogi then who should lead the party in the forth-coming elections

Therespondents who said that Ajit Jogi should not lead the Congress party in the forth coming Vidhan SabhaElections, were further asked then who else should lead the party.

	All sample	Urban	Rural
Base : Those saying Ajit Jogi should not lead the Congress party inthe forth coming Vidhan Sabha Elections	923	285	638
*% saying*	%	%	%
A tribal candidate	23	18	25
An OBC candidate	23	27	22
An upper caste candidate	12	14	11
Somebody who is nominated by Shri Ajit Jogi	4	5	3
SC candidate	4	7	3

About a quarter (23%) of those who said that Ajit Jogi should notlead the party, say that a Tribal candidate should lead the Congress party whileanother quarter said that an OBC candidate should lead the Congress party in the forth comingVidhan Sabha Elections.

13.Most capable of being the next CM of Chattisgarh

The respondents were asked who in their opinion, out oflist, was the most capable of being the next Chief Minister of Chattisgarh. The views of the respondents arementioned below:

	All sample	Urban	Rural
Base : All sample	3266	1087	2179
*% saying*	%	%	%
Ajit Jogi	31	30	32
Dilip Singh Judev	17	16	17
Vidya Charan Shukla	8	11	7
Shyama Charan Shukla	4	5	3
Motilal Vohra	2	1	2
Raman Singh	2	2	1
Ramesh Bais	2	2	3
Don’t Know/ Can’t say	29	30	29

A larger proportion(31%) of the respondents, perceived Ajit Jogi to be the most capable person for becoming the Chief Minister ofChattisgarh, as compared to only 17% who favoured Dilip Singh Judev of BJP. This is partly because theBJP has not projected any one for the Chief Ministership before the elections.

A large proportion of29% did not mention or give their opinion on who is the most capable of being the next Chief Minister of Chattisgarh.

If Dilip Singh Judevis removed from the elections then it would give further boost to Ajit Jogi.

14a. Reasons for preferring AjitJogi as CM

Respondents who had indicated Ajit Jogi as being the most capable ofbecoming the CM of Chattisgarh were next asked to give their reasons for preferring him. They were free togive one or more reasons.

	AllSample
Base: Those preferring Ajit Jogi as next CM	1027
% saying:	%
Done good work	31
Will solve state problem	25
Good leader	19
Will make / improve roads	12
Village development	8
Solve water problem	5
Can resolve the issue of power crisis	4

31% of those favouring Jogi said they prefer him because he has done good workin the state.

14b. Reasons for preferring Dilip Singh Judev as CM

Respondents who had indicated Dilip Singh Judev asbeing the most capable of becoming the CM of Chattisgarh were next asked to give their reasons for preferringhim. They were free to give one or more reasons.

	AllSample
Base: Those preferring Dilip Singh Judev as next CM	542
*% saying:*	%
Will solve state problem	30
Good leader	28
Done good work	18
Village development	9
Intelligent person	8
Will provide more employment	7
Can resolve the issue of power crisis	6
Will make roads	5
Solve problem	5

The main reasons for preferring Judev are that he can solve the problems in the state and he is perceived to be a good leader.

List of Assembly Constituenciescovered in Chhattisgarh

AC NO.	ASSEMBLYCONSTITUENCY	PARLIAMENTARYCONSTITUENCY
3	PREMNAGAR(ST)	SURGUJA(ST)
9	AMBIKAPUR(ST)	SURGUJA(ST)
13	TAPKARA(ST)	RAIGARH(ST)
18	KHARSIA	RAIGARH(ST)
33	SIPAT	JANJGIR
37	SAKTI	JANJGIR
1	MANENDRAGARH(ST)	BILASPUR(SC)
30	BILASPUR	BILASPUR(SC)
39	CHANDRAPUR	SARANGARH(SC)
48	PALARI(SC)	SARANGARH(SC)
41	RAIPURRURAL	RAIPUR
42	ABHANPUR	RAIPUR
53	SARAIPALI	MAHASAMUND
52	BINDRANAWAGARH(ST)	MAHASAMUND
60	BHANUPRATAPPUR(ST)	KANKER(ST)
82	DONDILOHARA (ST)	KANKER(ST)
67	KESLUR(ST)	BASTAR(ST)
69	DANTEWADA(ST)	BASTAR(ST)
75	DHAMDHA	DURG
80	KHERTHA	DURG
87	DONGARGARH	RAJNANDGAON
90	KAWARDHA	RAJNANDGAON