The Numbers Game: Pep Guardiola And Ruben Amorim Eye Manchester Derby Bragging Rights

The first Manchester derby of the season is upon us, with both City and United needing a big result at the Etihad Stadium.

City were expected to right their wrongs from last season and compete for the title this time around, but after back-to-back losses, they are already six points adrift of leaders and reigning champions Liverpool.

United, meanwhile, earned their first win of the season last time out, leaving it late to collect all three points against Burnley at Old Trafford.

That win followed a humiliating EFL Cup exit at the hands of League Two Grimsby Town, though, with Ruben Amorim still needing more goodwill as he attempts to change the Red Devils' fortunes.

United do sit one point and four places above City in the early Premier League standings heading into this clash, but both managers know how important a derby win could be for morale at this stage of the season.

Using Opta data, we delve into the key numbers ahead of a huge derby matchup.

What's expected?

Manchester City have won five of their last eight Premier League games against Manchester United (D1 L2), though they failed to win either meeting (D1 L1) last season for the first time since 2020-21.

Amorim got the better of his opposite number last term, beating Pep Guardiola's side with both Sporting CP and United, while also overseeing a goalless draw in April.

And United have inflicted 25% of Guardiola's total home Premier League defeats as City boss, with the Red Devils winning four times at the Etihad against him (4/16).

Since 2015-16, the home team has ended on the winning side in just six out of 20 Premier League meetings in the Manchester derby (D4 L10).

City are expected to get a home victory this time around, though, with Guardiola's side winning 65.6% of the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations.

United are looking for consecutive wins at the Etihad for the first time since March 2021, though they are only given a 15.8% chance of walking away victorious on Sunday.

The chances of a second consecutive draw between the sides are slightly more likely at 18.6%.

Can Guardiola help City find their groove again?

Things looked very bright for City after an opening-day 4-0 win over Wolves, but back-to-back defeats against Tottenham and Brighton, who came from behind via second-half goals from James Milner and Brajan Gruda at the Amex, have put a bit of a dampener on things.

In fact, City have lost two of their first three Premier League matches for the first time since the 2004-05 campaign (W1), while this is the fewest points (three) ever collected by Guardiola in his first three league games of a season.

The last time the Citizens lost three of their first four games was in 1995-96, a season in which they were eventually relegated.

That seems an unlikely scenario, given City are still given a 6.3% chance of winning the league by the Opta supercomputer, but their form of late has caused some concern.

Guardiola has lost 49 of his 345 Premier League matches (W247 D49), with 22% of those defeats coming since the start of last November (11).

A defeat in this game would see him take the second-largest number of games to lose 50, behind Alex Ferguson, whose 50th defeat in the competition did not arrive until his 367th match.

City will be expected to get back on the right track sooner rather than later. So far, they have narrowly underperformed their expected goals (xG) figures, netting five times from 5.8 xG, and have conceded as many goals as expected (four from 4.0 xGA).

But Guardiola will hope the signing of Gianluigi Donnarumma, a deadline-day acquisition from Paris Saint-Germain, provides his squad with a boost.

James Trafford, also purchased this summer from Burnley, had started City's first three games, but he is the only player in the squad so far to have committed an error leading to a goal.

Donnarumma brings extra experience as a treble winner last season, and he is undoubtedly one of the world's best pure shot-stoppers.

Since breaking into AC Milan's first team in 2015-16, the Italian has prevented 40.6 goals, according to Opta's expected goals on target (xGoT) model. In that same span, only Jan Oblak (45.4) and Brice Samba (41.0) have prevented more goals in Europe's top five leagues.

United seek finishing touches

United's 3-2 win over Burnley last time out marginally eased some of the pressure on Amorim after an underwhelming start to the campaign, but the Red Devils still have work to do to turn things around.

That victory was just United's eighth win in 30 Premier League matches under Amorim (D7 L15), with half of his wins coming against promoted sides.

Against sides not promoted to the division that campaign, the Portuguese coach holds just a 16% win ratio (four wins in 25), though one of those victories did come at the Etihad last December.

Many of United's issues stem from poor finishing, a problem that has carried over from the last couple of seasons, though they are showing glimpses of their potential.

United have had 58 shots in the Premier League this season, 14 more than any other side. It is their most shots in the first three games of a season since 2017-18 (60).

They also have the highest expected goals (xG) total of 6.8, but they have only scored four times in the top flight in 2025-26, with two of those coming via own goals, meaning they have massively underperformed. The Red Devils have also had two penalties, with Bruno Fernandes scoring one against Burnley and skying the other at Fulham.

United have made the most off-ball runs in behind their opponent's defensive line in the Premier League this season (131), with forward Bryan Mbeumo responsible for 54 of those – the most of any player.

Three of the five highest tallies for in-behind runs in a match in 2025-26 have been registered by Mbeumo, with a high of 22 against Burnley last time out.

United have also had issues at the other end, though, and they could also hand a new goalkeeper a debut, with Senne Lammens joining from Antwerp on deadline day.

Altay Bayindir replaced Andre Onana, who has now departed for Trabzonspor, as United's number one to start this season, but the Turkiye international committed an error leading to a goal against Arsenal on the opening weekend.

Lammens made 173 saves in the Belgian Pro League in 2024-25 – 20 more than any other goalkeeper in any of Europe's top 10 leagues last season.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester City – Erling Haaland

Haaland made his 100th Premier League appearance against Brighton before the international break, with his goal in that game taking him to 88 in the competition – nine more than any other player has scored in their first 100 matches.

He led City for shots (seven), shots on target (three), and 'big' chances (two) in that match, while he also won all four of his aerial duels.

Haaland has netted 48 home goals for City in the Premier League in his previous 49 such matches. Should he score twice against United, he would become just the second player to hit 50 home goals in 50 or fewer games on home soil, after Alan Shearer (50 in 47).

The Norwegian has previously scored six league goals in five appearances against United, including a hat-trick in the first, though he has not scored against them since March 2024.

Manchester United – Bruno Fernandes

Fernandes has created the most chances in the Premier League this season so far, both overall (12) and in open play (eight).

Fernandes has also scored in each of United's last three wins against Man City in the competition, in March 2021, January 2023 and December 2024.

His penalty against Burnley, timed at 96:10, was United's fourth-latest winning goal on record in the Premier League (from 2006-07), and he led by example throughout that game.

He created six chances, more than any other player, and also led the way for final-third entries (14), touches (104) and won back possession more often than anyone else on the pitch (10 times).