Borussia Dortmund Vs FC St. Pauli Preview, Bundesliga: Match Prediction, Players To Watch – All You Need To Know

Niko Kovac has urged his Borussia Dortmund team to attack the second half of the Bundesliga season as they aim to close the gap to leaders Bayern Munich. 

Dortmund are second in the table and 11 points adrift of Vincent Kompany's side, who equalled a Bundesliga record for their tally after 17 games of a season after downing Koln. 

BVB were also involved in midweek action and swept aside Werder Bremen, with Nico Schlotterbeck, Marcel Sabitzer and Serhou Guirassy all on target at Westfalenstadion. 

Kovac's team have not lost a league match since going down 2-1 to Bayern on October 18, but their chances of upending the Bundesliga champions at the summit are slim. 

BVB finish top of the pile in just 0.9% of the Opta supercomputer's season simulations, with Bayern assigned a 99% chance of lifting a 35th league title.

Kovac, however, was not counting out his team, saying: "Now it's a matter of consolidating our position and trying to build on it. We want to do that in the first game of the second half of the season. 

"But we have to push ourselves. We have to make sure we continue to extend the gap to the teams behind us.

"We have to start the second half of the season well. It's half-time, and we have something to make up for the game in Hamburg. That's why we definitely want three points."

Dortmund captain Schlotterbeck echoed the thoughts of his boss following Dortmund's 3-0 win over Werder Bremen in midweek, which continued BVB's rise under Kovac. 

Indeed, since Kovac came in to replace Nuri Sahin back in January 2025, only Bayern (25) have won more Bundesliga games than Dortmund (20). 

"We're on the right track, but not on a perfect one. We played well against Frankfurt, but we really struggled in the first half against Werder Bremen," Schlotterbeck said. 

"We played with more confidence in the second half. We still have a few steps to take, but I think we'll manage that in the coming weeks.

"And then at some point the crucial games will come, as we head towards March and April – and then you have to be ready. In the league, in the Champions League.

"We had a difficult season last year, and the year before that too. Now we're in a pretty good position. If we continue to win games, things are looking pretty good."

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Borussia Dortmund – Julian Ryerson

Ryerson has five assists in 16 Bundesliga appearances this season, the most for the BVB in the current campaign. This also equals his total assists from his previous 146 Bundesliga games combined.

Among all players who have played at least 50% of the possible minutes in this Bundesliga season, only Michael Olise (1.0) has created more big chances per 90 minutes than Ryerson (0.8).

St. Pauli – Eric Smith

Eric Smith scored his third career Bundesliga goal in St. Pauli's 2-1 defeat to Wolfsburg last time out, and he will be out to do something he has never done in the top flight. 

Indeed, he has never scored in two consecutive matches in the competition, though his first two goals in the Bundesliga both came against St. Pauli's next opponents, Dortmund.

MATCH PREDICTION: BORUSSIA DORTMUND WIN

Dortmund and St. Pauli will meet for the 20th time in the Bundesliga, with BVB winning 11 of their last 13 top-flight encounters (D2). The Schwarzgelben currently have no longer unbeaten streak against any other team in the league. 

Kovac's team also have 36 points, representing their best Bundesliga first half of a season in seven years, having collected 42 in 2018-19. This is also just the fourth time the BVB have suffered just one defeat in the first half of a season – a feat they followed up by winning the league title in both 1994-95 and 1995-96 (as well as 2018-19).

BVB are unbeaten in their last 10 Bundesliga matches (W6 D4), which is the second-longest active streak in the league behind Bayern (26). Since the March international break, they have lost just one of their 25 Bundesliga games. 

St. Pauli, meanwhile, have failed to win their last eight Bundesliga away matches in a row (D2 L6). Only Hamburg are currently on a longer winless stretch on the road in the league (nine games). In four of those eight games, they also failed to score. 

And their struggles have been in the final third. St. Pauli have scored the fewest goals in the top flight this season, although they have netted two more goals than at the same stage in 2024-25. 

With just 12 points after 16 matches, St. Pauli are enduring their second-worst Bundesliga season in the club's history. They only had fewer points at this stage in the 2001-02 campaign (seven), in which they finished in 18th place.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Borussia Dortmund – 68.6%

Draw – 18.2%

St. Pauli – 13.2%