T20 World Cup 2026: Are Pakistan Out Of Tournament? Super 8 Group 2 Scenarios Explained After NZ’s 61-Run Win Against SL

New Zealand booked a commanding 61-run win over Sri Lanka in their T20 World Cup Super 8 Group 2 clash on Wednesday, effectively ending the co-hosts’ hopes of making the semifinals.

New Zealand posted 168/7 before bowling Sri Lanka out for 107, with standout performances from Rachin Ravindra (4/27) and Mitchell Santner’s lower-order hitting, a result that not only keeps the Kiwis firmly in the hunt but also complicates the race for Pakistan.

Sri Lanka’s back-to-back defeats leave them bottom of Group 2 with zero points and an official elimination from the tournament. New Zealand have strengthened their position, while Pakistan now face a near-must-win scenario in their remaining fixture to stay alive. England have already secured their semifinal spot with two wins from two games, leaving New Zealand and Pakistan battling for the second qualification spot.

Pakistan’s Qualification Odds Narrow After NZ’s Win

With the latest result, points in Super 8 Group 2 stand with England on 4, New Zealand on 3, Pakistan on 1, and Sri Lanka on 0 after two matches. Pakistan’s defeat to England earlier in the Super 8 stage has left them needing a comprehensive win over Sri Lanka in their final game to even keep qualification hopes alive. Even a win might not be enough, though, because New Zealand still have one match left, against England, which could further tilt the race.

If New Zealand win their remaining game, they will finish on 5 points and secure the semifinal berth, making Pakistan’s position almost untenable unless results go their way with a combination of heavy victories and favourable net run rate scenarios.

For the Pakistan team, it’s no longer just about winning, they may need a dominant performance and slip-ups from New Zealand to have a chance.

What Pakistan Must Do and Scenarios Ahead

Pakistan’s path now hinges on the outcome of both their own final match and New Zealand’s remaining fixture. To qualify:

• Pakistan must beat Sri Lanka in their last group game to stand any chance, which would take them to 3 points.

• Ideally they would also need New Zealand to lose at least one of their remaining matches to reduce points pressure and improve Pakistan’s net run rate advantage.

• If New Zealand win both of their remaining games, Pakistan’s hopes are effectively over regardless of their own result.

With England already guaranteed a top-two spot, the contest for the second semifinal place has boiled down to a direct tussle between New Zealand and Pakistan, with net run rate likely to be a deciding factor if both end up on equal points. It’s a high-stakes finish in Group 2, where Pakistan’s tournament survival is now hanging by the narrowest of margins.