Why Modi Will Tread Cautiously With Trump 2.0

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will arrive in Washington later this evening for a meeting with President Donald Trump. The trip comes at a time when the government has received much flak for the video of chained and shackled illegal Indian migrants being sent back on a military aircraft. Many Indians are angry that the Modi government was not able to ensure that its nationals were sent back with dignity.   

Modi’s visit on Wednesday will set the tone for relations between the two countries for the next four years. Though there was much bonhomie between the two leaders during Trump’s first term, the situation now is a little different with the US President sending out signals that a strong America will now call the shots.   

Foreign secretary Vikram Misri announcing the visit last week said the Prime Minister will be in Washington on 12-13 February to take forward bilateral relations to the next level. “The Prime Minister’s visit to the United States will give further direction and impetus to this very important partnership. We expect a joint statement to be adopted at the end of the visit,” Misri said. 

“There has been a very close rapport between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi dating back to President Trump’s first term. There is an obvious convergence of interest between the two countries in a number of areas: trade, investment, technology, defence cooperation, counter-terrorism, security of the Indo-Pacific, and the people-to-people relationship,” Misri had said at the special briefing held ahead of the PM’s visit. 

It is a fact that Modi and Trump bonded well during the American leader's first tenure. The razzle-dazzle of the Howdy Modi and Namaste Trump  extravaganzas in Houston and Ahmedabad respectively indicated an  excellent personal rapport. Despite this, Donald Trump is unpredictable. India will take care not to muddy the waters and spoil a close relationship that has paid rich dividends. 

"It needs to be kept in mind that 2025 is not 2017 when Trump was first elected President. The world has changed in 2025 as compared to 2017 and so also has Trump. Trump 2.0 is much more confident, self-assured, unencumbered and impulsive than he was eight years ago. He will have to be handled deftly, smartly and intelligently,” says ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar. 

New Delhi will tread cautiously and handle Trump with care. The soft handling of the shackled deportees clearly indicates India’s restrain and desire not to upset an unpredictable Trump. "With his twenty-five years of experience in governance, PM Modi is ideally equipped to effectively accomplish this task,’’ Sajjanhar adds.  

Trump now is not the man who was a surprise winner in 2016 and took time to find his bearings. This time Trump has won not just the electoral college but also the popular vote. Trump sees his mandate as a signal from the electorate to brush out the Biden years and "clean up the Washington swamp"; and he is doing this with a vengeance. He has packed his cabinet with loyalists and is in a hurry to act on his election promises and proclaim America’s power across the world.  

Hot Button Issues

Immigration and tariffs are hot button issues for Trump. He has already castigated India on tariffs, describing India as "tariff king" and tariff abuser. Delhi has ensured that the ground is cleared on tariffs by reducing import duties on a variety of imports from the US in this year’s budget. This includes reduction in custom duties on luxury goods like the Harley-Davidson motor cycles, cars and smartphones, benefitting American companies like Harley Davidson, Tesla and Apple. However, with a transactional businessman like Trump, no one can be certain whether there won’t be more demands. His decision to slap 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports will affect several countries. While Canada, Brazil and  Mexico are the top suppliers of steel to the US, India will also be affected as it exports aluminium to the US. While announcing the huge tariffs on steel and aluminium, Trump said more levies will be announced on other imports soon.

Any country that has a trade surplus with the US is being targeted by Trump. India had a small trade surplus of $36.74 billion with the US in 2023-2024. This is tiny, considering the huge deficits with countries like China and  Mexico, or the EU. Trump has been urging New Delhi to buy more US defence equipment and open up its markets to American goods including the pharmaceutical sector. While reducing tariffs on certain items, India would want to protect sensitive areas like agriculture and dairy. There will have to be give and take and New Delhi will bargain hard to keep the barriers up on products that will hurt Indian industry.

Ambassador Sajjanhar is optimistic that "India will be able to steer India-US ties on an upward trajectory during Trump 2.0. This is reflected in the warm and friendly conversations between PM Modi and President Trump since the latter’s re-election. Convergence on bilateral, regional and global issues is much greater than divergences on some aspects. India would be ready to negotiate intensely on trade, tariffs, immigration, defense procurement and other matters to arrive at mutually advantageous win-win solutions."