Outlook Exclusive: Year After Pahalgam, Former R&AW Chief AS Dulat on Security, Statehood And Illusion Of Normalcy

Yes. See, you must remember one thing, that people ask, how did Pahalgam happen, why did Pahalgam happen? These things happen, it was a terrible incident. The worst that we've seen in a very long time. But these incidents or any such incident only happens when there is a lapse, a security lapse.
And please remember, there is no such thing as foolproof security, you know. Like, there is no foolproof intelligence also. Nobody does.
And people say that they don't negotiate with terrorists and things like that. Everybody does. Mossad does, the Israelis do, the Americans do, everybody does.

You didn’t see it coming. That is the real lapse, you know. If somebody were to ask me, you know, how did Pahalgam happen? After the event, even I can tell you how it happened.
If you recall, before Pahalgam happened, there were these boys coming in through Jammu, which never happened in the past. And if you remember, there were attacks in Kathua. So how, then you start climbing up - Kathua, Doda, Kishtwar, Anantnag, when you go beyond Anantnag, you can go up into the heights. You go up into the heights and you get lost.
If you look at militancy in Kashmir, if we go back to 88, 89, it started in the north. These guys were coming in through Kupwara, Handwara, and Baramulla.
Now, then, if you recall, 2016, I think it was, when that boy Burhan Wani was killed, was when the whole thing had shifted to the south. Because he was a boy from Tral, from the south. These shifts happen.
And they are dictated not by us, but by the guys doing the job, the militants. Of course, Pakistan is involved in this. There are no two ways on that. But there will always be some local support.
Now, fortunately, Srinagar hasn't had a bad incident in a long time. If things happen there, it means they have sleeper cells. That is the most frightening thing.
Also, there is a connect between tourism and militancy. Always has been. And the Pakistanis understand that.
Now, with summer coming, hopefully, there will be no attack. Because Pakistanis know that this is the season in which the Kashmiri makes money, tourism. So, why disturb his tourism, tourist season?

The Pakistanis are more involved with the Iran war. So, I don't think there is anything big likely to happen now. But you can never say.

I am telling you that from whatever I have seen and watched, there probably is an area there where these guys are comfortably perched. And they came down, did the job and disappeared. And nobody could find them. Now, whether they are still there or not, or whether they have gone, the other thing is, remember, and that is scary also, that this area adjoins Himachal Pradesh. So, nothing should happen in Himachal.

The Chief Minister himself has said some things that the area was out of bounds. The security, they didn't check, there wasn't enough... Now, you can't check every everywhere, it's not possible.

It should be remembered that all of Kashmir stood solidly behind Delhi. Mirwaiz Umar Farooq condemned the incident. When everyone stood by you, sympathised with you, in a sense they were being critical of Pakistan, Delhi should have made use of that. The Home Minister should have joined the people of Kashmir at Lal Chowk.

There have been some interesting developments in Kashmir as a fallout of what's happening in the war in Iran.

One is that there always was a divide between the Shias and Sunnis. And the Shias of Kashmir generally believed, more than the Sunnis, that they were safe with India, you know. I mean when militancy began, Shias never got involved in the militancy. There was a group which had a Shia name, but they were not seriously involved.

Now this Iran war has brought the Shias and Sunnis together. And you will find that the Mirwaiz, who in my book will always be an important player, has been speaking out most loudly about the war in Iran.

And, you know, the Mirwaiz and his family have had a long-standing sort of disagreement with the Shias. Now he's speaking out for Iran.

Huge donations went to Iran from Kashmir. And while thanking everybody, Iran thanked India and then separately thanked Kashmir.

So these are significant developments which need to be kept in mind when you're thinking of Kashmir. The problem is nobody thinks of Kashmir. Kashmir is alright. What is the problem? There is no problem.

Now, the boys say there is there's nothing to talk. We don't expect anything now. So a silent population or a silent youth, in my mind, is dangerous.

Now, coming to Kashmir itself, have we gained anything by abrogation of Article 370? Is the situation better, not better? Yeah, in a sense it is better.

You know, that a couple of things have stopped happening. Big protests, stone pelting. We haven't heard of stone pelting at all after 370. And there are no big protests. So, in that sense, tourism also has increased, there is no doubt about it.

And if you go down the boulevard and you go down this way, so many more eateries have opened, you know, which is also a good sign of flourishing tourism. So, all that is positive.

But what Delhi flaunts and what Delhi talks about, that there is normalcy in Kashmir, that's not true. Because if there is normalcy, then why do you need a security personnel every hundred yards or whatever it is? And incidents do take place. It's not as if militancy has totally stopped.

The union government cannot think of Kashmir like a real estate deal.

And in all this, as Farooq Abdullah has been saying, and he said it repeatedly, that we need to engage with Pakistan. We need to talk to Pakistan. So, that this terror stops. Otherwise it will not stop. Because they have the capability and we have the vulnerability. These things will continue. So, why don't you talk to Pakistan and say, stop this nonsense. It has to stop.

Let me take you to Omar Abdullah's election. When he got elected and with that thumping majority, Kashmir was very happy. Kashmiris were very happy. They thought they have a government of their own now.

But they don't have a government of their own. Because it was all based on the belief that statehood would be restored. I don't know how many rounds to Delhi and every time he was assured that, you know, statehood would be restored. But nothing has happened.

Ultimately he had to say that we are not getting statehood because there is no BJP government here. Omar has said that. He had to acknowledge that.

Now Delhi stands, the way Delhi explains it is, yeah, there is a commitment to restore statehood. But the timing will be of our choosing. Which brings us back to what Omar is saying.

According to the union government, this is the other side of the coin. How can Kashmir have statehood while there is still militancy? On the one hand they say that it's normal. On the other hand they say that, you know, no statehood now.

What are we trying to do in Kashmir? What have we been trying to do in Kashmir since 1947? Is to try and gradually mainstream Kashmir from Sheikh Abdullah's time. And that's how the 1975 agreement was reached. That and to get Pakistan out of their mind.

Now Pakistan was largely out of the Kashmiri mind. But when the Kashmiri feels that he's nothing, he's nobody, there's no dignity.

And then comes the statement of our Home Minister, who has said this repeatedly, that these three families have to be broken up. The Gandhis, the Abdullahs and the Muftis. And if you want a mainstream Kashmir, then these are the families which matter in Kashmir.

Of course. It's a pity that the Gandhis have forgotten Kashmir. If you remember from Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru's time to Indira Gandhi's time to even Rajiv Gandhi's time, the Gandhis always were in Kashmir.

Now, the Congress seems to have forgotten Kashmir. They only wake up when elections come.

So, I think, now for instance, the BJP, is building the ABVP in Kashmir. And Kashmir is such a place that you can always find pockets. Untouched pockets. Not only for militancy where the security forces can't reach, but also where politicians can't reach.

So, if the ABVP is being built up in Kashmir, why is the NSUI not being built up in Kashmir?