India’s Coal-Powered Growth Linked To Rising Urban Air Pollution Deaths: Study

India’s rapid economic growth has brought greater access to electricity and cleaner cooking fuels but increased reliance on coal-fired power has also contributed to worsening urban air pollution and a rise in pollution-related deaths, a new study has found.

The study, led by researchers at the University of Oxford, has been published in Nature Cities. Researchers examined the links between economic growth, electricity demand, power generation, air pollution and health in India.

Rising Electricity Demand, Coal Dependence

Between 2000 and 2020, India’s GDP per capita rose from around $600–$700 to more than $2,000, while electricity demand increased from approximately 450 terawatt-hours (TWh) to almost 2,000 TWh.

The study found that a 1% increase in GDP per capita was associated with an approximately 1.14% increase in electricity demand.

More than three-quarters, or 76%, of this demand was supplied by coal. The rise in coal-fired power generation was accompanied by increased sulphur dioxide (SO₂) emissions, which contributed to higher concentrations of sulphate aerosols and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).

The number of coal-fired power plants also increased significantly. While 71 plants were commissioned before 2000, another 182 were commissioned between 2001 and 2024.

The study found that sulphate increased from approximately 35.5% of total urban airborne particle pollution in 2000 to 46.4% in 2020.

The power sector’s contribution to total urban aerosol loading rose from around 16% in 2000 to 36% in 2020, making it the largest anthropogenic contributor in the analysis.

Urban Pollution Deaths Rise

The researchers estimated that urban deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure increased from approximately 670,000 in 2000 to 870,000 in 2020, a rise of around 30%.

Deaths associated with power-sector emissions saw a particularly sharp increase. The modelling estimated that urban PM2.5-attributable deaths linked to power-sector emissions rose from approximately 15,000 in 2000 to nearly 300,000 in 2020.

The largest increases in pollution were concentrated across northern and eastern India, including the Indo-Gangetic Plain, where large populations overlap with extensive coal-fired power infrastructure.

The study also found that industrial emissions contributed significantly to urban air pollution. By 2020, the power sector accounted for an estimated 36% of total urban airborne particle pollution, compared with about 32% for industry.

However, power-sector PM2.5 increased by around 400% between 2000 and 2020, while industrial emissions increased by around 90%.

Cleaner Cooking, Different Health Trend

The study found a contrasting trend in household air pollution. Access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking increased from approximately 25% of the population in 2000 to nearly 75% by 2023.

Independent health datasets showed that deaths attributable to household air pollution declined from approximately 1.25–1.30 million a year around 2010 to approximately 1 million a year by 2023.

The researchers said the findings highlight the contrasting public-health effects of India’s economic and energy transition, with declining exposure to household air pollution alongside increasing exposure to polluted outdoor air.

The researchers used satellite observations, atmospheric analysis, chemical transport modelling, socioeconomic and energy data, and population and mortality data for the study.