In Assam, Ajmal Survives But His Party Faces Existential Crisis

• Ajmal holds a strong lead, but AIUDF is headed for a steep fall from its earlier strength.

• Consolidation of Muslim votes behind Congress sharpens questions over role in aiding the BJP.

• Rejects “vote-cutter” tag, framing party as an independent voice and calling for opposition introspection.

Badruddin Ajmal is leading in Assam's Binnakandi, but the question of his party’s future is an entirely different matter.

Ajmal, 76, contesting his first state assembly election after nearly two decades in Parliament, was leading with 89,452 votes, a margin of close to 28,000 over his nearest rival, Rejaul Karim Chowdhury of the Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP). The man who lost Dhubri in 2024 by over ten lakh votes.

The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the party Ajmal built from scratch after the scrapping of the IMDT Act in 2005, the party that had 18 seats in 2011 and won 16 as recently as 2021, was on course for somewhere between three and five seats. 

Returning to the Hojai belt, part of his family’s traditional base, Ajmal has cast this election as a fight to protect the “political identity” of minorities in Assam. On the campaign trail, he has repeatedly flagged the impact of the 2023 delimitation exercise, alleging it has weakened minority representation, while promising to push back against what he calls “arbitrary targeting” of these communities and prioritise economic support for flood-prone regions in Lower and Central Assam.

In an interview with Outlook ahead of polling, Ajmal, a three-time former Member of Parliament and a renowned Islamic theologian, addressed the charge that the AIUDF is functionally, a splitter of the opposition vote, a party whose existence hands marginal constituencies to the BJP by dividing the Muslim electorate it claims to protect. He brushed it aside, saying: “This is a narrative created to hide the failures of others. The real question is: why are people not voting for them? Instead of blaming AIUDF, parties should introspect.”

On the consolidation of Muslim votes behind Congress, the single most consequential development in Assam’s opposition politics over the past two years, Ajmal offered what he framed as a long-term view. “Democracy is about choice. Division happens when people feel unheard. If we remain sincere and focused, people will naturally consolidate behind a credible leadership. So, I see it as a challenge, but also an opportunity,” he told Outlook, leaning on credibility over arithmetic as his organising principle. 

On 2024, the Dhubri loss that was the most public humiliation of his career, he was characteristically unyielding. “Our position is stronger today because people have seen the reality of governance. In the last election, there was confusion among voters due to alliances and narratives.”