Himalayan Glaciers Melting 65% Faster Driven By Black Carbon: Study

Himalayan glaciers are losing mass 65% faster than they were a decade ago, with roughly one-third of the melt driven by black carbon. On current trajectories, the Hindu Kush Himalayas could lose up to 80% of their present glacier volume by 2100.

The study was carried out by global consultancy Systemiq in collaboration with the Integrated Mountain Initiative, with contributions from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and the GB Pant National Institute of Himalayan Environment. It found that 18% of India’s land is Himalayan, while the region accounts for about 35% of disasters and contributes more than 20% of India’s GDP.

Black Carbon Driver

The report said the heart of the challenge is a growth model putting pressure on Himalayan systems at three levels. Globally, warming created elsewhere is destabilising a cryosphere the region did not put at risk. Regionally, black carbon drifting up from the plains settles on the same glaciers and speeds up the melt driving today’s disasters.

“Our research shows roughly a third of Himalayan glacier melt is driven by black carbon, largely from brick kilns in the plains, making this one of the few levers the region can pull now,” the report stated.

Nepal Floods Context

The report came weeks after a glacial collapse led to deadly flash floods in Nepal. The floods killed at least 1,350 people and left several hundreds still missing, AP reported.

It also flagged weak surveillance across the wider mountain system. The report said only around 21 of the nearly 40,000 estimated glaciers across the Hindukush Himalayan region are being monitored, including around 16-17 in India.

“Shocks are now unavoidable, but the region still lacks the intelligence needed to anticipate them. For example, only around 0.1% of the Himalaya’s estimated 40,000 glaciers are currently monitored, while permafrost, another critical source of instability, is even less understood. The priority is therefore to build the monitoring, early-warning and risk-mapping systems needed to anticipate hazards and guide smarter siting and preparedness before disaster strikes, rather than simply responding afterwards,” the report stated.

Peak Water Outlook

The report said most Himalayan river basins are likely to hit “peak water” around mid-century. That is the point at which glacier meltwater reaches its maximum before declining as the ice reserve shrinks.

“This is expected across most Himalayan river basins by mid-century, with up to 80% of current glacier volume at risk by 2100,” it stated.

River flows may rise at first, then weaken as glacier reserves thin further. That adds to long-term water and hazard risks across the region.

ICIMOD Warning

Pema Gyamtsho, director general at ICIMOD, said the Hindu Kush Himalayan region is changing rapidly. He said glaciers are retreating and that permafrost and high-mountain slopes are becoming more unstable.

“Communities and infrastructure downstream face growing risks from complex and cascading hazards. This report makes a strong case for coordinated action, including bringing the private sector behind resilient action. Cross-border monitoring, shared risk information and early-warning systems, and joint investment in resilience are all becoming essential for safeguarding lives, livelihoods and economies across the region,” Gyamtsho told AP.