Round One of Us-Iran Talks Have Gone Well; But Will There Be a Deal?

The fact that the US and Iran are talking and are meeting again next week is a positive sign, considering the complete trust deficit between the two countries. The statements issued by both countries after the meeting give reason for hope that perhaps something could be worked out at the end of the negotiations.

In comments broadcast on Iranian national television, and reported by the Iranian press, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said that the upcoming round of talks would focus on the "format" of the negotiations.

"During this round, we were able to reach agreements on the content of the talks," he explained. "If we finalise the content next week, we will then be in a position to determine the format as well." He added that Iran seeks a real agreement and wishes to avoid a "destructive" phase of negotiations. "However," he cautioned, "this will not be easy. Both sides must demonstrate seriousness and resolve."

Official Iran does not trust America. Their approach to the negotiation is cautious and pragmatic. When Donald Trump sent a letter proposing talks to the Iranian leadership, Tehran took time to respond. In sharp contrast, the Iranian public are welcoming the start of negotiations. On social media people  are urging the government to grab the opportunity and ensure an end to American sanctions that has led to massive economic hardship.  

That President Donald Trump has decided to give diplomacy a chance is a surprise, considering that he is a hardliner on Iran and had walked out of the nuclear deal in 2018, during his first term in office. Since assuming office, Trump had kept up the anti-Iran rhetoric. He had time and again threatened to  bomb Iran if it continued its uranium enrichment program.  Ahead of the talks  on Friday Trump had warned "..there will be hell to pay’’ if Iran refused to comply. Since last month, US  B-2 Stealth Bombers have been heading to the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, to signal a possible attack on Iran. This is perhaps Trump’s idea of exerting pressure on Iran to come to the table.

It is also well known that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has for years wanted to strike at Tehran’s nuclear facilities and hoped that with Trump in the White House, he would get the green signal. Iran at the moment is at its weakest with its surrogates like the Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen decimated. There are many in the American establishment who are opposed to talks and believe like Israel that this is the time to ensure that Iran’s nuclear facilities are hit hard.

Distrust of America is deep seated in Iran’s clerical hierarchy, which calls the shots in the country. On its part, Iran has also done some sabre rattling ahead of the talks. “Some bully governments insist on negotiations,”  Ayotallah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader had thundered after receiving Trump’s letter, sent through an emissary to Iran. “But their negotiations are not aimed at solving issues, but to dominate and impose their own expectations. For them, negotiation is a means to introduce new demands. The issue is not just about nuclear matters, they raise new expectations that Iran will certainly not accept.” 

Semantics over whether they were direct talks as Trump claimed or indirect negotiations  with Oman’s foreign minister as the go-between is irrelevant.  But at the end of the day, US special envoy, Steve Witkoff and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi have decided to meet for another round of negotiations on April 19.

While the formal negotiations between Witkoff and Araghchi was held on Saturday, informal meetings and proposals from both sides had been worked out earlier. "The Iranian side has some proposals for the Americans, and the negotiations seem to have good results for both sides,’’ an Iranian source who did not wish to be identified said. Trump’s public posturing is maximalist, demanding that Iran roll back its nuclear program. In actual fact, the idea is to allow the UN inspections regime back to Iran. While development of civilian nuclear power plants is well within Iran's rights, Washington wants to make sure that through constant monitoring, the weapons program is abandoned. Iran’s public stand is that it wants nuclear power for development. "We are not after a nuclear bomb. You (in the West) have verified it 100 times. Do it 1,000 times again. Iran’s moderate President Pezeshkian said ahead of the talks. He also said that the Supreme Leader was not opposed to American investment in the country if a deal is reached. This was the sweetner to appeal to Trump’s appetite of increasing US business interests world-wide.

Tehran is keen that some of the sweeping sanctions in place for over four decades is now lifted, and its assets that have been frozen by  Western banks returned. Despite working around sanctions, Iran’s economy is in bad shape and  Pezeshkian desperately needs an easing of sanctions.  In the 2015 nuclear deal that was finalised at the end of  Barak Obama’s second term, Iran has agreed to strictly limit its enrichment activity. 

"…Americans need to be realistic. If they want us to limit our program but aren't willing to make meaningful concessions, it will never happen," the Tehran Times, Iran’s English newspaper reported an Iranian official saying. Concessions for Iran means at least partial lifting of sanctions.