Peace Deal Only Restores Pre-War Status Quo; US Objectives Unfulfilled:

The peace deal between the US and Iran merely marks a return to the pre-war status quo and negotiations over the next 60 days will determine whether Washington is able to secure its objectives with which it attacked Tehran, according to an expert.

Will Todman, Senior Fellow in the Middle East Programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said the preliminary agreement primarily provides for a cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, returning conditions to where they stood before US and Israeli strikes on Iran.

“No, at this point, the United States has not achieved any of the objectives that President Donald Trump set out when he launched the war,” Todman told PTI.

The US and Iran reached an agreement on Sunday to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a move expected to facilitate the resumption of oil and natural gas shipments through one of the world's most important energy transit routes.

Details of the agreement have not been made public.

Iran has indicated implementation will begin only after a formal signing ceremony, which Pakistan, a key mediator in the negotiations, said is scheduled to take place in Switzerland on Friday.

The agreement also provides a 60-day window for negotiations on unresolved issues relating to Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and its nuclear programme.

Todman said the initial agreement will see a cessation of hostilities and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic and these developments simply represent a return to the status quo before the US and Israeli strikes began.

The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.

Todman said negotiations over the next 60 days will determine whether or not the US achieves its goals as they pertain to Iran's nuclear programme.

“However, Iranians are very unlikely to make significant concessions on nuclear issues and feel that time is on their side. They will likely try to drag out the negotiations as they do not believe President Trump will resume military operations in the run-up to the mid-term elections. As a result, the United States is unlikely to secure its objectives,” he said.

Todman said no progress has been reported on other issues that the United States stated were goals, including Iran's ballistic missile programme and its support for Iran’s proxies and partners across the region.

He said after the agreement, Iran is likely to integrate more fully into the Middle East, as Arab Gulf states seek to develop ties of economic inter-dependence in the hope of deterring Tehran from attacking them again in the future.

“That integration will create new economic opportunities, and it is possible that the United States seeks to benefit from those.

"If a future US administration determines that the Iranian regime is here to stay in the region and that there are economic benefits of engaging with it economically, they could choose to normalise ties. However, that prospect appears some way off,” Todman said.

The expert said that the over three-month war saw the US fray its relationships with key partners and allies in the Middle East.

“Arab Gulf states feel abandoned by the US and that President Trump did not sufficiently factor their interests into his decision-making process in the run-up to the war and during it,” he said, adding that these countries were likely to diversify their security partnerships to reduce reliance on the US.

“It is unlikely that President Trump or a future US administration will be prepared to spend sufficient political capital on reducing the trust deficit that now exists between the United States and Arab Gulf states, meaning the relationship will gradually decline,” Todman said.

He said an unprecedented rift appears to be emerging between the interests of the United States and Israel.

“The Israeli government fears that the deal fails to neutralise the threat Iran poses to Israel's security and also curtails Israel's ability to act to counter that threat going forward.

"Israel also considers that its work in Lebanon is unfinished. Yet, President Trump has an interest in preventing Israel from continuing its operations in Lebanon, as he wants to see this deal succeed,” he said.

Todman said the war also drove a wedge between the US and its Western allies, which opposed the war.

“President Trump has publicly criticised NATO for not intervening in the war on his side. Therefore, the war is yet another point of contention that further undermines the strength of the trans-Atlantic relationship,” he said.