Islamabad Talks Stall But Ceasefire Holds

The much-anticipated second round of talks in Islamabad never took off, yet the war has not quite returned either, with the indefinite extension of the ceasefire by US President Donald Trump at Pakistan’s request. An uneasy, tenuous pause is on, but how long before that gives way?

Meanwhile, tensions are rising sharply. The tit-for-tat blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the US and Iran has pushed the conflict into the vital waterway. Two ships were attacked on Wednesday by the IRGC, with one damaged, though there were no injuries. The blockade is unlikely to be lifted soon. It is bad news for the world economy. The prospect of oil prices rising will hit the global economy, especially India and other Asian countries that source large portions of their energy from the Gulf region.

Despite the ceasefire, the situation remains dangerous, with the chance of a full-scale war breaking out at any moment. Pakistan is hoping to get Iran back to the negotiating table. Trump said in a social media post that Pakistani mediators have asked the US “to hold our attack on the country of Iran until such time as their leaders and representatives can come up with a unified proposal ... and discussions are concluded, one way or the other.” But Trump’s constant public messaging, swinging from threats of bombing Iran to more optimistic views, has wrecked much of the solid work that back-channel diplomacy had built up.

Even as the ceasefire is extended, US naval forces continue to blockade Iranian vessels in an attempt to stop shipments of oil and further squeeze Iran’s already faltering economy. In a social media post, Trump proclaimed: “Iran is collapsing financially! They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately—starving for cash! Losing 500 million dollars a day. Military and police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!”

Iran’s refusal to attend the Islamabad round of talks was directly linked to the blockade and its deep mistrust of the United States. Tehran viewed the interception of an Iranian commercial vessel as yet another example of US double-speak, having already been attacked in the midst of negotiations twice before. Tehran is demanding the immediate release of its ship and has taken its case to the United Nations. Iran’s ambassador to the UN, Amir Saeed Iravani, in a letter to Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, called for “urgent attention to the continued international violations committed by the United States,” describing the incident as “a hostile and illegal attack.”

Following the incident, the tone of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has grown sharper, signalling that any further escalation or direct strike will invite retaliation. Brigadier General Seyyed Majid Mousavi, the IRGC aerospace commander, condemned the US interception and said forces remained vigilant and ready to defend the country.

Meanwhile, as Tehran weighs whether to return to the negotiating table, there is speculation about divisions within its leadership. Trump has claimed the extension of the ceasefire is to allow for a “unified” Iranian response, saying the leadership is “seriously fractured” over the peace talks. Iranian officials acknowledge differences over the war, talks with the US, the nuclear issue and the Strait of Hormuz. With Mojtaba Khamenei,the new Supreme Leader reportedly injured in the initial strikes and yet to be seen publicly, still an uncertain figure, questions remain over how decisions will ultimately be made.

The situation remains tense. Back-channel efforts by Pakistan and other countries continue in a bid to prevent the region from sliding back into full-scale war. For now, those channels are the only thing holding the line between a fragile pause and renewed conflict. The ceasefire may be holding, but only just.