How A Syrian Air Base Strike Put Turkey At The Centre Of Netanyahu’s Election Agenda

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is increasingly presenting Turkey as a security threat, as tensions between the two countries spill into Syria and Israel heads towards an election in which his leadership on security is likely to be a central issue.

The latest escalation came after Israel struck Abu Duhur air base in Syria's Idlib province, saying the operation was intended to prevent a Turkish military deployment there. Israel said Syria had been "on the verge of breaching" an agreed security status quo by allowing Turkish forces to deploy at the base and that Ankara's presence would threaten Israeli security.

Turkey condemned the strikes, saying Israel was targeting Syrian infrastructure and violating the country's territorial integrity. Its Foreign Ministry called for the international community to take a "more decisive stance" against what it described as Israeli aggression against Syria.

Syria Becomes Flashpoint

The confrontation reflects competing Israeli and Turkish approaches to post-Assad Syria.

Israel has repeatedly struck military assets inside Syria since Bashar al-Assad's fall in December 2024 and has maintained troops in areas it says are necessary for its security. Israel has also insisted that its forces remain in security zones in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza to protect its borders and nearby communities.

Turkey, meanwhile, has developed close ties with Syria's new government and has supported its military. The Abu Duhur strike brought those competing interests into direct confrontation.

Turkey and 11 other countries subsequently issued a joint statement condemning the Israeli attack on Abu Duhur as an "extreme escalation" and a violation of Syria's sovereignty, while calling for Israeli forces to withdraw from areas they have occupied.

Netanyahu’s Security Strategy

The dispute fits into a broader Israeli policy of maintaining military positions beyond its internationally recognised borders.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has told US officials that Israel intends to remain in security zones in Syria, Gaza and Lebanon, arguing that the deployments are necessary to protect Israeli communities and borders.

That approach has already created tensions with Washington. US President Donald Trump had urged Netanyahu to withdraw Israeli forces from Syria and Lebanon, arguing that their presence was fuelling tensions.

The emergence of Turkey as another major actor challenging Israel's preferred security arrangement adds another layer to Netanyahu's regional strategy.

Why It Matters For Netanyahu

The Turkey confrontation comes as Netanyahu prepares to defend his record before Israel's next election, due by October.

His Likud party confirmed in June that Netanyahu would seek another term. The election will be the first since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and against Iran. Polling suggested Netanyahu's coalition could struggle to secure a parliamentary majority.

Netanyahu's main challenge could come from former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, who launched his election campaign in July and accused Netanyahu of leading Israel without sufficient vision or strategy. Eisenkot's party was projected at 22 seats in one Channel 12 poll, close to Likud's 24.

Eisenkot has made the October 7 attack and Netanyahu's handling of the subsequent war central to his campaign. Netanyahu, in contrast, has continued to emphasise military achievements and the need to maintain Israel's security posture.

A New Enemy?

Netanyahu's framing of Turkey as a security challenge could therefore serve both a regional and domestic purpose.

Israel's conflict with Turkey is not a conventional war between the two countries, but their competing interests in Syria are increasingly producing direct military and diplomatic friction. Turkey's condemnation of the Abu Duhur strike and Israel's insistence that Turkish deployments threaten its security point to a relationship that is becoming more adversarial.

For Netanyahu, the timing is significant. As he campaigns on security, the emergence of Turkey as a new regional challenger gives him another front on which to argue that Israel must maintain an aggressive security posture, even as rivals such as Eisenkot question whether that approach has made the country safer.