BRICS At A Crossroads As Global Order Faces Turbulence, Global South Seeks Greater Space

As the ongoing wars, trade tensions and geopolitical rivalries continue to reshape the international order, the future of BRICS is increasingly being defined by a world in flux, with the grouping emerging as one of the key platforms through which countries of the Global South are seeking greater strategic and economic space.

The Russia-Ukraine war, continuing tensions in West Asia, growing confrontation between the US and China, and Washington's tariff policies under President Trump have added fresh uncertainty to an already fragmented international system.

At the same time, questions are being raised over the influence of traditional Western-led institutions and the ability of the G7 to retain its earlier dominance.

Future Of BRICS

"The future of BRICS depends largely on the evolving geopolitical situation. There is a lot of chaos in the international system today. The US has increasingly moved towards protectionist policies, while the power and influence of the G7 is on the decline and the Global South is on the rise," Prof Rajan Kumar, School of International Relations, JNU, and co-editor of Locating BRICS in the Global Order, told Outlook.

According to Kumar, the growing cohesion among BRICS countries reflects both the changing balance of power and dissatisfaction with the existing international system.

Countries across the Global South increasingly believe that they cannot remain excessively dependent on the US and Western institutions at a time when geopolitical uncertainty is growing.

"The coming together of the Global South and BRICS is both symbolic and realpolitik. They are sending a message to the West that the old order cannot continue indefinitely," Kumar said.

BRICS Focus On Reducing Dependence On The West

The grouping's growing focus on reducing dependence on Western-dominated financial mechanisms has also triggered concerns in Washington about the possibility of de-dollarisation.

Over the past two decades, BRICS member nations have significantly increased their share in global GDP, trade, energy production and diplomatic influence.

The expanded BRICS grouping represents around 49.5% of the world's population, about 40% of global GDP and nearly 26% of global trade, cementing its status as a major geopolitical and economic force.

When BRICS officially came into existence in the mid-2000s, with the first summit held in Russia in 2009, the core agenda was economic cooperation and global governance reforms. Now, its agenda is being shaped by geopolitical factors and internal rifts.

Over the years, it has expanded intra-member trade and economic cooperation and created institutions such as the New Development Bank. Intra-BRICS trade has expanded more than 13-fold since 2003. Trade between member countries reached $1.17 trillion in 2024.

BRICS countries have, however, so far stopped short of creating a common currency, with the emphasis instead being on increasing trade in national currencies and developing alternative payment mechanisms.

India and Russia, for instance, have been exploring and expanding rupee-ruble trade mechanisms, while China and Russia have significantly increased the use of their own currencies in bilateral transactions. Other BRICS members have also shown interest in greater localisation of payment systems.

For experts, this does not necessarily mean that BRICS is transforming into an explicitly anti-Western alliance.

"BRICS is not an anti-West grouping, but it is not a pro-West grouping either. Its members are primarily seeking greater strategic autonomy and more room to pursue their own national interests," Kumar said.

Unlike the European Union, where economic and political integration has created a deeply interconnected bloc, BRICS remains a highly diverse grouping.

Its members have different political systems, economic priorities, languages, cultures and strategic interests. There are also significant rivalries within the group, most notably between India and China.

Yet, the fact that these countries continue to come together despite such differences is itself significant.

"The remarkable thing is that despite their differences and even internal rivalries, they have managed to put their differences aside and come together on issues of common interest," Kumar said.

The presence of Chinese President Xi Jinping in New Delhi during the BRICS summit carries particular significance in this context. His visit marks his first trip to India since the 2020 Galwan clash, which severely strained bilateral relations.

"Xi Jinping coming to India after the Galwan crisis shows that despite the differences, BRICS can provide a platform where countries can engage with each other and keep channels of dialogue open," Kumar said.

The future of BRICS, therefore, may depend less on whether it becomes a tightly integrated political bloc and more on whether its members can convert their growing convergence into practical cooperation.