BNP Mandate Eases India’s Fears of Hardline Surge in Bangladesh

India heaved a sigh of relief as the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) swept the general election, heading off fears in New Delhi of a surprise surge by the far-right Jamaat-e-Islami. Some projections ahead of the elections had raised the prospect of a stronger role for religious hardliners in Dhaka. Instead, the BNP’s decisive mandate, and the prospect of a stable government are being seen in India as a strategic bonus at a time when geopolitics is in a flux.

New Delhi moved swiftly as the scale of the victory became clear. Prime Minister Narendra Modi  congratulated BNP leader Tarique Rahman, on his social media account on X, saying he looked forward to working with him to strengthen ``our multi-faceted relations and advance our common development goals.’’ PM Modi also spoke to him over the phone to congratulate Rahman. Pakistan’s prime minister Shehbaz Sharif also went on X to greet Rahman. The US and Chinese embassies in Dhaka put out congratulatory messages.

Unlike the Jamaat, the BNP is a moderate Islamic party much in the mould of the Awami League, though it played footsie with the Jamaat when both were fighting Sheikh Hasina.

India’s outreach to BNP

India’s outreach to the BNP began much before foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar visited Dhaka for the funeral of Begum Khaleda Zia last December. Unpublicised meetings in London and Dhaka took place earlier though the exact timeline is not known. But Vikram Doraiswami , India’s high commissioner to London, who was earlier in Dhaka, played an important part. He was in talks with Tarique Rahman, then the acting chairman of BNP, who was in self-imposed exile in London. Before Rahman returned to Dhaka on Christmas Day last year, India and the BNP had sorted out their differences. It is said, though neither side is likely to acknowledge it publicly, that Rahman returned to Dhaka only after an understanding was reached between the BNP and New Delhi. So when PM Modi posted about his concern for the late Khaleda Zia in X on December 1, the talks were already on and looking positive. ``Deeply concerned to learn about the health of Begum Khaleda Zia, who has contributed to Bangladesh’s public life for many years. Our sincere prayers and best wishes for her speedy recovery. India stands ready to extend all possible support, in whatever way we can.’’ His gesture was much appreciated by the BNP.

Jaishankar’s presence at her funeral was the culmination of months of engagement. On January 28, when the Indian Parliament met,  both houses observed silence and passed a condolence motion on Khaleda Zia.

However, this is not to suggest that all is well now with the BNP in-charge. Having relentlessly attacked Sheikh Hasina for being an ``Indian stooge’’, Rahman will be wary of getting into another Awami League-like embrace with India. It will be interesting to note whether the new PM’s first visit abroad would be New Delhi, China or some other country?  How he handles and balances complex ties with India, China and Pakistan will be a test. Sheikh Hasina, despite her close ties with India, had excellent relations with China.

''India has cautiously welcomed the victory of the BNP in the parliamentary elections held in Bangladesh yesterday. India would hope for significant improvement in stability and restoration of law and order in the country,’’ says former diplomat, Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar.

There will be challenges in the relationship. ``The biggest possible irritants for India after the takeover of the BNP government would be bilateral border management, infiltration from Bangladesh to India, use of Bangladesh territory by insurgents to create disturbance in North-East India, rise of Islamist influence in Bangladesh, sharing of common rivers like the Teesta and Padma, increased influence of the China-Pakistan nexus in Bangladesh, growing persecution of minorities, particularly Hindus in Bangladesh, and the continued refuge of Sheikh Hasina in India,'' adds Sajjanhar.

With elections slated this year in the bordering states of Assam and West Bengal, the poll rhetoric during the campaign could focus on alleged Bangladeshi migrants. When accusations against alleged Muslim Bangladeshi migrants lead to fiery hate rhetoric from BJP political leaders, the BNP government is unlikely to let that pass as the Awami League did. Tension could flare and Islamists as well as Pakistan could use the opportunity to stir the pot from Bangladesh territory. More so as Islamabad accuses New Delhi of terror strikes in Balochistan and other sensitive regions of the country.

Again there is the issue of Sheikh Hasina’s extradition from India to face charges against her. The interim government under Muhamad Yunus had requested India to hand her back with no success. Whether the former PM’s extradition becomes a major stumbling block in relations is not clear.

For Tarique Raham, a relative novice in government, though he has been the driving force behind BNP for nearly two decades, the challenges ahead are enormous. Bangladesh is a polarised country, has been since the 1971 war of independence. The divide between those who fought for freedom and the smaller group like the Jamaat that was against separation from Pakistan had always been a factor in politics.

While the Awami League and Hasina’s father Sheikh Mujibur Rahman led the freedom movement, BNP leaders like former president Ziaur Rahman, who was a serving officer in the Pakistan army, resigned and took part in the struggle. In fact, on March 26, 1971, just before his arrest and imprisonment in Pakistan, Mujib declared independence. Major Ziaur Rahman, subsequently broadcast the declaration the next day to the world. Ziaur Rahman took office after a military coup, following the assassination of Mujib, but later turned civilian president and founded the BNP. After his assassination, his wife Begum Khaleda Zia led the party, till her death last year.

Tarique Rahman,  has his task cut out. He has to call for national reconciliation and rebuild institutions at home while at the same time balance complex ties with India, China and Pakistan, as well as the US.

For now, New Delhi has reason to feel reassured. Whether that reassurance translates into durable stability in the relationship will depend on the choices made in Dhaka as much as in New Delhi. Bangladesh’s future depends on how well Tarique Rahman can manage these complex challenges at home and abroad.