Weak Organisation, Big Demands: Congress’s Seat-Sharing Dilemma With SP In UP

The Congress has had an eventful week, with Rahul Gandhi joining INDIA bloc MPs in protests against Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar over the ongoing controversy surrounding the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls.

In Uttar Pradesh, however, the party is grappling with a challenge of its own, managing internal discontent while preparing for the 2027 Assembly elections and negotiating a seat-sharing arrangement with the Samajwadi Party (SP).

On October 19, newly appointed Uttar Pradesh Congress chief Aradhana Misra, popularly known as Mona, met Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra at her residence in New Delhi, accompanied by UP Congress in-charge Rajendra Pal Gautam and working president Imran Masood. Mishra said in a post on X that she had received Priyanka Gandhi’s guidance on organisational matters.

Lucknow Clash Exposes Fault Lines In State Unit

The meeting came eight days after Misra’s appointment exposed divisions within the state unit. On October 11, supporters of outgoing UP Congress chief Ajay Rai raised slogans against his successor during the event marking her elevation in Lucknow, prompting a counter-response from Misra’s supporters.

The confrontation escalated into a scuffle, with party workers pushing and heckling one another and throwing shoes. Several senior leaders, including Misra’s father and Rajya Sabha MP Pramod Tiwari, attempted to calm the rival groups.

Rai was later seen welcoming Misra with a bouquet, though reports said he had complained to the party leadership that he was insulted during the event. The leadership reportedly assured him that action would be taken against those responsible.

Ajay Rai Rules Out Exit, Focuses On Pindra

Rai’s future in the party also came under scrutiny amid speculation that he was unhappy with the leadership change and might leave the Congress. According to party sources, Rahul Gandhi had offered to make Rai an All India Congress Committee member and appoint him as a state in-charge after removing him from the UP post, but Rai did not accept the proposal.

Speculation over his possible departure was also fuelled by his early political association with the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) and BJP. However, a Lucknow-based political analyst told Outlook that Rai is unlikely to leave the Congress and currently concentrating on his political prospects in the Pindra Assembly constituency of Varanasi.

Rai himself has dismissed suggestions that he intends to quit. Describing himself as a loyal Congress worker, he said the BJP had been trying to lure him since 2014 but would not succeed.

On Saturday, October 17, he offered prayers at Mata Nakateshwari Dham on the occasion of Ashtami before beginning his campaign in Pindra, Varanasi. He also extended his best wishes to Misra, urging her to work hard, remain among party workers and respect their concerns.

Rai has maintained that he remains part of the Congress, which he described as his home and family. He also denied reports that he had travelled to Delhi on October 14 to meet Rahul Gandhi but had stayed away because of his resentment over the reshuffle. Speaking to Dainik Bhaskar, Rai said he had gone to Delhi for his child’s admission and had no appointment with Rahul Gandhi.

The dispute has nevertheless raised questions about the Congress leadership’s ability to manage its state organisation ahead of a crucial election.

Author and political analyst Rasheed Kidwai told Outlook that intra-party clashes are a blot on the organisation and serve little purpose. Such incidents, he says, demoralise workers and raise questions about the leadership of Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

Seat-Sharing Talks With SP In Focus

The immediate political test for Misra, however, may lie in the Congress’s negotiations with the SP led by Akhilesh Yadav. Her meeting with Priyanka Gandhi comes amid expectations that discussions on seat-sharing for the 2027 Assembly elections could gain momentum.

Misra is widely seen as being close to Akhilesh Yadav, a relationship that could help keep channels of communication open as the two parties work towards an electoral understanding.

The elevation of Imran Masood as working president, however, presents a more complicated picture. Masood has been a vocal critic of what he describes as the SP’s “big brother attitude”, repeatedly questioning the party’s approach to the alliance. Congress leaders have insisted that any seat-sharing arrangement must be based on “respect and equality”.

The stakes are considerable for a party that has been out of power in Uttar Pradesh since 1989. In the 2022 Assembly elections, the Congress won only two of the state’s 403 seats, underlining the scale of the organisational challenge facing Misra.

The party has since sought to rebuild its position through its alliance with the SP, which delivered a stronger showing in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The SP won 37 seats in Uttar Pradesh and the Congress six, while the BJP was reduced to 33.

The results have given the Congress grounds to seek a larger share of Assembly seats in 2027, but its demands will be weighed against its limited state-level organisation and electoral record.

The SP, for its part, is expected to emphasise the principle of winnability, arguing that the 2024 results should guide the negotiations. Congress leaders have countered that the alliance itself contributed to the SP’s gains and that the party’s performance in earlier Lok Sabha elections should not be overlooked.

Asked whether the Congress’ demand for a larger share of seats is realistic despite winning just two Assembly constituencies in 2022, Kidwai told Outlook that it amounted to “a mere posture”. Alliances and seat adjustments, he said, are negotiated from a position of strength, not weakness.

The Congress would have to demonstrate that it has winnable seats in Uttar Pradesh, particularly constituencies where it finished first or second in the previous Assembly elections.

By that measure, Kidwai said, its prospects were limited to little more than a dozen seats. He also pointed to the party’s six Lok Sabha victories in 2024 and its lead in more than 30 Assembly segments as factors it could use in negotiations.

For Misra, the challenge is therefore twofold, to contain the resentment exposed by the leadership change and to translate the Congress’s improved Lok Sabha performance into a credible Assembly-level presence. Her relationship with Akhilesh Yadav may help sustain the alliance, but the party will still have to make a convincing case for the seats it seeks.