Navigating Betrayal and Loyalty: Nitish Kumar in the Eye of Bihar Politics

While the BJP’s invocation of “Jungle Raj” in Bihar has begun to show fatigue, there appears to be little anti-incumbency against Nitish Kumar. For over two decades, the Chief Minister has deftly navigated the state’s intricate web of caste loyalties, ideological shifts, and political betrayals emerging, time and again, as Bihar’s indispensable power broker.

Political violence in Bihar dates back to the 1940s, and the era of ‘Jungle Raj’ has never truly ended. Recent murders involving bahubalis highlight how politicians often allow the rule of law to take a back seat. 

The numbers speak for themselves: Jan Suraaj leads with the highest number of candidates with criminal cases in both phases, and in the second phase alone 58 of its 117 candidates have declared criminal involvement, 51 of whom face serious charges. Overall, at least 27 per cent of candidates (695 of 2,616) face serious criminal charges, while 94 have declared cases related to crimes against women, including five candidates accused of rape.

Conversations and discussions with the electorate from across castes, classes, and sub-regions suggest that upper castes, especially Rajputs and Bhumihar-Brahmins, desire a BJP-led upper-caste chief minister, yet are hesitant to openly oppose Nitish, who remains a formidable vote-catcher. 

The NDA will still draw support across communities, although Yadav and Muslim votes are likely to shift only marginally. Nitish’s last-minute cash transfer scheme of ₹10,000 to women, coupled with his cultivation of a women voter base, appears to be paying electoral dividends.

The first phase of the Bihar Assembly elections saw polling in several key districts, setting the tone for a high-stakes contest. Voter turnout was closely watched, with local dynamics from caste loyalties to grassroots campaigning shaping the electoral mood. Early reports indicated keen engagement in both rural and semi-urban areas, with parties stepping up last-minute rallies and outreach initiatives. Across constituencies, the influence of muscle power, local strongmen, and promises of welfare schemes was visible, reflecting the complex mix of aspiration, loyalty, and political pragmatism that characterises Bihar’s electoral landscape.

In Outlook’s November 10 issue Solitude Of Power, we trace Bihar’s enduring political grammar, where caste equations remain constant, alliances shift like sand, and one man’s survival instinct continues to shape the state’s destiny.

Chinki Sinha, in Bahubalis, Violence and Politics, explores how muscle power and local strongmen and the presence of both overt and subtle violence impact voter behaviour and campaign strategies. In A Morass of Lies, Deceit and Red Tape, Sajad Haider captures the growing unease among Bihar’s upper castes, especially Rajputs and Bhumihars, who want the return of a BJP-led upper-caste regime but remain cautious about sidelining Nitish before the polls. Mohammad Ali, in Theatre of Promises, explores a generational divide among women voters, between older women’s gratitude for welfare schemes and younger women’s aspirations for independence, that could alter Bihar’s electoral arithmetic in unexpected ways.

In How the BJP’s Rise Changed Bihar’s Left, Snigdhendu Bhattacharya examines the CPI(ML)’s shifting role from agitational politics to alliance-building, asking what remains of its core demand of land redistribution. Umesh Kumar Ray revisits Bihar’s long-lost industrial dreams in Once, There Were Mills, arguing that the state’s manufacturing deficit is as political as it is economic. And in Katta Culture, Vikas Kumar Jha lays bare Bihar’s enduring tryst with political violence, tracing how the culture of murder and intimidation continues to haunt its elections.

Together, these stories decode a state in the throes of another defining moment, where loyalty, ambition, and survival collide once again on Bihar’s turbulent political stage. 

With the elections underway, Nitish Kumar faces perhaps the most complex battle of his career. Balancing caste dynamics, shifting voter expectations, and his own health challenges, which observers note have begun to affect public appearances. Yet his strategy of cultivating women voters and leveraging welfare schemes, combined with the NDA’s consolidated support across communities, ensures that Bihar remains a political chessboard of high stakes and nuanced manoeuvres. 

Outlook’s coverage brings these layers into focus, capturing a state where political survival, ambition, and ideology intersect in ways that will define the next chapter of its democratic journey.