Bihar Election 2025: A Test Of Modi’s Popularity And NDA Alliance

Voters in India’s eastern state of Bihar headed to the polls on Thursday in an election widely viewed as a measure of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political standing and the strength of his coalition ahead of future national and state contests, The Washington Post reported.

Millions queued at polling stations across the state for the two-phase election to choose representatives for Bihar’s 243-seat legislature. The outcome, expected on 14 November, will indicate whether Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) can maintain its influence or faces growing dissatisfaction over unemployment, governance and the revision of electoral rolls, according to The Washington Post.

Bihar holds significant political weight in India, sending 40 members to the lower house of parliament. A strong showing would reinforce Modi’s coalition, while a setback could embolden the opposition and alter the balance of national politics.

“Bihar’s election is not just about alliances but arithmetic,” said New Delhi-based analyst Sidharth Mishra. “If the NDA led by Modi falters, it could unsettle his coalition at the centre.”

The BJP leads the state’s ruling alliance, with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) at its head. Kumar, 74, has governed for nearly two decades and is often credited with improving infrastructure and tackling law and order problems. Once a rival of Modi, he later returned to the NDA fold. Analysts note that a defeat in Bihar could weaken his party and destabilise the federal coalition, which relies on a dozen of his lawmakers.

“This election could affect not just Bihar’s leadership but the stability of Modi’s government,” said Ravi Ranjan, a political science professor in New Delhi.

The NDA faces challenges from the opposition Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress Party. Another entrant, Jan Suraaj, founded by political strategist-turned-activist Prashant Kishor, has also joined the race.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has criticised the Election Commission’s recent revision of Bihar’s voter rolls, alleging it was politically motivated. Nearly 10 per cent of the state’s 74 million registered voters were removed since June. Opposition parties claim the move disproportionately affected poor and minority communities, though the commission said the update reflected population shifts, deaths and new eligible voters.

An agrarian and economically strained state, Bihar has about 130 million residents. Both the BJP-led alliance and the opposition have pledged to create millions of government jobs, but economists remain doubtful given the state’s weak economic base.

In September, Modi sought to appeal to women voters by providing cash transfers of 10,000 rupees (about £90) each to 7.5 million women under an employment-linked welfare scheme. With many men migrating to cities for work, women make up a large portion of the state’s active electorate.

Pushpendra Kumar, a socio-economist and former professor at the Tata Institute of Social Sciences in Mumbai, told The Washington Post that Bihar’s situation reflects a larger contradiction. “The state government has initiated welfare measures but has rarely attempted to address underlying causes of poverty such as landlessness, low wages and limited employment opportunities,” he said.

According to The Washington Post, the Bihar election is being closely watched as a test of whether Modi’s alliance can maintain cohesion and credibility in a politically pivotal state before India’s next national vote in 2029.

(With inputs from The Washington Post)