The Numbers Game: Ange Postecoglou Seeking First Nottingham Forest Win On Europa League Return

Nottingham Forest are making their return to Europe, over 29 years after their last appearance.

A Champions League spot had looked a genuine possibility for Forest at one stage last season under Nuno Espirito Santo, before ultimately finishing seventh and earning a Conference League place.

However, they got their place in the Europa League after FA Cup winners Crystal Palace were demoted to the Conference League by UEFA.

It has been all change since then for Forest, though, with Ange Postecoglou now in the dugout.

He masterminded Tottenham's Europa League triumph last season, clinching their first trophy in 17 years.

However, he was sacked just over a week later, following Spurs' 17th-place finish in the Premier League, and he is still searching for a first win in charge of Forest.

Real Betis, meanwhile, secured a sixth-place finish in LaLiga last season to secure their place in Europe's second-tier competition, but could also have secured their berth through the Conference League. They reached the final, only to lose 4-1 to Chelsea in the showpiece.

And they will prove to be no pushovers, though Manuel Pellegrini's side will have to do without home advantage on Wednesday, with their ground currently undergoing renovations.

So, who will kick off their Europa League campaign on a high at Estadio La Cartuja de Sevilla? Here, we delve into Opta data to find out.

What's expected?

This will be the first-ever meeting between Betis and Forest in any competition.

However, they have previously faced off in a pre-season friendly, with Betis triumphing 1-0 back in July 2018, though that does not give much to go on.

Betis have lost seven of their nine previous European games against English teams (W1 D1), including their most recent such game, going down to a Cole Palmer-inspired Chelsea in the 2025 Conference League final.

As for Forest, their only previous meeting with a Spanish club came in the first round of the Fairs Cup back in 1961-61 when they lost 7-1 to Valencia.

It is expected to be a tight game on Wednesday, with Forest the narrow favourites to earn Postecoglou his first win at the helm, winning 38.2% of the Opta supercomputer's 10,000 pre-match simulations.

A Betis win is only slightly less likely, coming in at 35.7%, so it looks probable that these sides will kick off the league phase with a draw, which occurred 26.1% of the time.

For the tournament as a whole, Forest are considered the third favourites to lift the trophy at 10%, behind Aston Villa and Roma. Betis are also given a slim outside chance, triumphing in 3% of the simulations.

Betis set to come out firing

Things had started so well for Betis in May's Conference League final, as they took a ninth-minute lead against Chelsea through Abde Ezzalzouli.

However, their first European final ended in heartbreak as they failed to come up with answers for the Blues' rampant second-half comeback.

Last season, they were spearheaded by Isco, who registered five goal involvements (two goals, three assists) in the Conference League – his second-highest tally in a single campaign in a major European competition.

They will have to navigate the start of this campaign without him, though, as he is currently sidelined with a broken leg.

Betis still have the tools to hurt Forest, though, with Giovanni Lo Celso stepping up in his absence with one goal and two assists in LaLiga so far this season. He also leads the way for chances created (15).

Cucho Hernandez is also sure to prove a threat in the box, having already netted twice since joining from Columbus Crew. No player in the squad has bettered his 1.6 expected goals (xG) or 21 shots, though he has only managed to get three on target.

Pablo Fornals, by contrast, has a 28.6% shot conversion rate, having scored two goals from seven attempts.

Betis have already taken nine points from the 15 on offer in LaLiga this term and are the joint-third highest scorers (nine goals), with only two teams in the division able to top their 9.1 xG.

Pellegrini will be hoping they can build on home advantage against Forest – they have lost just one of their last 18 major European home games in the group/league stage (W11 D6).

However, that was their last such match in the Europa League back in December 2023 against Rangers (2-3), a result they will be keen to avoid repeating.

Can Postecoglou finally get up and running?

Last season's Europa League final marked Postecoglou's penultimate match in charge of Spurs, with the 1-0 win over Manchester United that earned them the trophy not enough to save his job after a dismal Premier League campaign.

His winless start at Forest has stretched to three games and includes an EFL Cup third-round exit. In fact, in the Premier League, the Australian is winless in his last nine matches (D2 L7), his longest run without a league win as a top-flight manager.

But the Tricky Trees are putting their stuttering league start to the back of their minds ahead of an eagerly anticipated return to the continent, with their last such game a 5-1 loss to Bayern Munich in March 1996 in a UEFA Cup quarter-final.

Their gap of 10,781 days between games is the longest by an England club since Wolves went 14,232 days without one between 1980 and 2019.

And Postecoglou will be desperate to get off the mark in a competition that has served him so well in the past.

He has a 67% win ratio in the Europa League (P15 W10), the third-best behind Diego Simeone (81%, P26 W21) and Julen Lopetegui (69%, P16 W11), among managers with 15+ matches.

So often last season, the key to Forest's success lay in their defensive strength, something they need to rediscover if they want to begin a lengthy run in European football.

Last term, they kept 13 top-flight clean sheets, second only to Liverpool's 14, with Matz Sels clinching the Golden Glove (along with Arsenal's David Raya) after his impressive performances in goal.

In 2025-26, though, it has been a different story, with Forest one of just four Premier League sides yet to keep a shutout. They also have the fifth-highest xG against of 7.7, having conceded the fourth most goals in the division (nine).

Sels' goal has faced 58 shots in total, with 45 of those coming from inside the box, and Postecoglou is not known for instilling defensive solidity, with his Spurs side conceding 64.3 xGA last season in the top-flight.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Real Betis – Antony

Antony has now joined Betis on a permanent deal from Manchester United, having enjoyed a hugely successful loan spell during the second half of last season, though he is yet to get off the mark since his return.

Between January 25 and the end of last season, he contributed 14 goals in all competitions (nine goals, five assists), including two goals in Betis' Conference League semi-final triumph over Fiorentina.

He managed as many goal involvements as Barcelona's Robert Lewandowski in that period, with only six LaLiga players managing a higher total.

Nottingham Forest – Callum Hudson-Odoi

Forest will be without club-record signing Omari Hutchinson, who was left out of the Europa League squad by Nuno, but they will still have plenty of threat up top.

Callum Hudson-Odoi is Forest's leading chance creator in the Premier League this term (seven, level with Elliot Anderson), though he has only generated 0.38 expected assists (xA) having failed to set up a goal so far.

He has scored in the top-flight, netting in a 1-1 draw with Palace, with only Chris Wood (five) having more shots on target than him (three).