Rebel Leader’s Moves Stir Doubts In AIADMK Over BJP’s Role

AIADMK’s troubles continue to deepen, with senior leader K. A. Sengottaiyan openly challenging Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s authority and threatening to expose the party’s fault lines. His 10-day ultimatum to reinstate sidelined leaders, followed by meetings in Delhi with Union ministers Amit Shah and Nirmala Sitharaman, has sharpened speculation about the BJP’s role in the unfolding crisis. Party insiders say the AIADMK leadership is unhappy with the BJP for entertaining a dissident leader, viewing it as a breach of trust between allies.

For the ruling DMK, the AIADMK’s disarray is timely—internal strife in the opposition could help the government counter anti-incumbency sentiments and hold its ground in Tamil Nadu’s shifting political landscape.

AIADMK, the BJP’s key ally in Tamil Nadu and the state’s main opposition party, has never managed to regain coherence after the death of J. Jayalalithaa. Edappadi K. Palaniswami, who consolidated his grip on the organisation by sidelining former chief minister O. Panneerselvam and pushing him out of the party, is now facing a fresh challenge from senior leader K. A. Sengottaiyan. By demanding the reinstatement of sidelined leaders and voicing dissent against the current leadership, Sengottaiyan has signalled that simmering discontent within the ranks is far from settled, exposing once again the fragile unity that has defined the party in the post-Jayalalithaa era.

It all began when K. A. Sengotaiyan issued a 10-day deadline to the AIADMK leadership to bring back those who had left the party. “Party leader Edappadi can decide who should return, but leaders who once held key responsibilities must be reinstated. If that does not happen, like-minded people will unite,” he declared. The open threat drew a swift response from general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami, who stripped Sengottiaiyan—a nine-time MLA—of his posts as organisation secretary and secretary of the Erode Rural West District. Six other leaders who backed Sengottaiyan’s demand also faced action, though none were expelled from the party. While the leadership has largely chosen silence, Sengottaiyan has found support from figures such as O. Panneerselvam and V. K. Sasikala, both of whom have long been waiting for an opening to challenge Palaniswami’s dominance.

Sengottaiyan’s criticism of the leadership for not having an electoral alliance with the BJP in the 2024 election and his recent meeting with Amit Shah and Nirmala Sitharaman have triggered speculation about the BJP’s interest in the internal issues of the AIADMK.

Though the party leadership has not issued an official response to Sengottaiyan’s meeting with BJP leaders, those close to Edappadi K. Palaniswami say such a move, undertaken without the knowledge of the high command, amounts to a breach of party discipline. There is also growing resentment within AIADMK over the BJP’s decision to host a dissident leader, which many see as interference in the party’s internal affairs. The episode has fuelled speculation that Sengottaiyan’s rebellion could strain the recently revived BJP–AIADMK alliance. After breaking ties following the last Assembly elections, the two parties had only come together again in April this year, and the latest developments threaten to reopen old fault lines.

“As far as the AIADMK is concerned, it has never been an ideologically driven party—it has always been leader-driven. First it was M. G. Ramachandran, then J. Jayalalithaa. After her, there has been no mass leader of that stature. Over the years, Edappadi has consolidated his position, and Sengottaiyan is not in a strong enough position to challenge him. His sudden revolt, even if backed by ‘external forces,’ is unlikely to destabilise Edappadi in the current scenario,” observes political analyst Babu Jayakumar.

An AIADMK leader, who did not wish to be named, told Outlook that he suspects the BJP had a hand in prompting Sengottiayan’s ultimatum for reinstating senior leaders who left the party. “The quick reaction from O. Panneerselvam and V. K. Sasikala welcoming Sengottaiyan’s move points in that direction,” he added.

The 2026 Assembly election looms as a make-or-break moment for the AIADMK, which has faced a string of defeats in every major poll since 2019. Within the party, there is a growing sentiment that an alliance with the NDA during the 2024 Lok Sabha election could have delivered a better outcome. Yet memories of the 2021 Assembly setback linger, when sections of the leadership blamed the BJP tie-up for the loss. This ambivalence continues to haunt the party, even as it navigates fresh internal challenges and an uneasy partnership with the BJP ahead of its most critical electoral test in years.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the AIADMK failed to win a single seat, despite securing a 23.3 per cent vote share. The BJP-led NDA, contesting separately, secured 18 per cent. Many within the AIADMK, including dissident leader K. A. Sengottaiyan, believe the outcome would have been different had the two parties fought together.

The DMK is closely monitoring the turmoil within its main rival but insists it is not overly concerned. “The BJP knows very well that it cannot penetrate Tamil Nadu. Around 20 per cent of voters here do not support either the DMK or the AIADMK. If the AIADMK splits again, the BJP may eye the role of the main opposition, but that is not easy for them,” DMK spokesman Prof. Constantine Ravindran told Outlook.

According to him, the BJP’s strategy is clear: use fissures within the AIADMK to emerge as an alternative force in the state. But, Ravindran argued, Tamil Nadu’s political culture, shaped over decades by Dravidian parties, leaves little space for an outsider to step into the vacuum. “Even if the AIADMK weakens further, the BJP cannot automatically inherit its vote base,” he said.

The DMK believes the internal churn in the AIADMK ultimately works in its favour, by keeping the opposition fragmented and distracted at a time when anti-incumbency could otherwise build up. “Whether the leaders who left AIADMK rejoin it or not, DMK is certain to retain power in the 2026 Assembly election,” Ravindran asserted, underscoring the ruling party’s confidence that the opposition’s disarray will neutralise any challenges on the ground.

According to observers, the BJP is unsure whether Edappadi K. Palaniswamy alone can take on MK Stalin. Hence, they are advocating the reunion of the former AIADMK leaders. However, many leaders have left the party and do not want to project Edappadi as the NDA’s chief ministerial candidate.

People close to Edappadi K. Palaniswami remain confident that he can withstand Sengottaiyan’s dissent and keep his grip over the AIADMK intact. They point out that Palaniswami has weathered bigger challenges in the past and consolidated his control over the organisation step by step. Yet, there is unease about the BJP’s intentions in encouraging or accommodating a dissident voice. According to party insiders, the leadership is adopting a wait-and-watch approach—keenly observing what Sengottaiyan’s next move will be once his 10-day ultimatum expires, and whether it leads to a wider mobilisation of leaders.