When Diplomacy Took A Backseat: How US–Israel Strikes Ended Oman’s Iran Mediation

Israel and the United States launched military strikes on Iran despite weeks of intensive mediation by Oman, ending what Muscat called the most promising diplomatic opening in years. The attacks occurred in spite of repeated assurances from Oman’s foreign minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi that diplomacy was producing tangible results and that a negotiated settlement was imminent.

Al Busaidi, the lead mediator in the indirect nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran, had publicly voiced optimism about the process. “I am confident, and in my assessment of the way the talks are going, I think there is, really I can see that the peace deal is within our reach,” he said. “Yes, it is within our reach, if we just allow diplomacy the space it needs to get there. Because I don’t think any alternative to diplomacy is going to solve this problem.”

The negotiations, which included a six-hour round of indirect talks in Geneva, took place in a tense environment as Washington withdrew personnel from its embassies in Israel and Lebanon and discreetly repositioned military assets in the area. Oman was keen to both sides to hold off both sides as it was eager to prevent a conflict in its immediate vicinity.

Al Busaidi said the negotiations had already resulted in what he called a historic breakthrough. He emphasised that the main goal had been accomplished, saying, "We have already achieved quite a substantial progress in the direction of a deal." "I believe we have solved the issue through these negotiations if the ultimate goal is to guarantee that Iran will never possess a nuclear weapon."

He underlined what he saw as the most significant achievement: “The single most important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never, ever have a nuclear material that will create a bomb.” Unlike the 2015 agreement reached during Barack Obama’s presidency, this understanding went further, he argued, by focusing on zero stockpiling. “If you cannot stockpile material that is enriched, then there is no way you can actually create a bomb,” he said, adding that this aspect had been widely overlooked.

Al Busaidi reiterated this position publicly after speaking to CBS on Face the Nation, writing on X:

“Good to sit down with Margaret Brennan on Face the Nation to explain that a peace agreement between the US and Iran is now within reach. No nuclear weapons. Not ever. Zero stockpiling. Comprehensive verification. Peacefully and permanently. Let’s support the negotiators in closing the deal.”

In the interview Al Busaidi said the most important breakthrough in the talks was Iran’s acceptance that it would “never, ever have nuclear material that would create a bomb,” calling it a major achievement that did not exist in the agreement reached during President Obama’s tenure. He noted that this new element “changes the whole enrichment argument,” as the focus has shifted to zero stockpiling.

“If you cannot stockpile enriched material,” he explained, “there is no way you can actually create a bomb, whether you enrich or you don’t,” adding that this crucial point had largely been overlooked.

Despite these assurances, US President Donald Trump signalled frustration with the pace of negotiations, warning that Iran “cannot have nuclear weapons” and suggesting that Tehran was unwilling “to quite go far enough”. While he left the door open to further talks, he also repeatedly threatened military action.

After the announcement of the strikes by the US and Israel, the Omani foreign minister expressed his disappointment, stating, “I am dismayed. Active and serious negotiations have yet again been undermined,” Al Busaidi said in a statement on X. “I urge the United States not to get sucked in further. This is not your war.”

"I pray for the innocents who will suffer," he wrote. The remarks carry particular weight given Oman's central role as mediator in the US-Iran nuclear talks.

On Friday, Al Busaidi had met US Vice President JD Vance in Washington, during which he said that “significant, important, and unprecedented progress has been achieved during the negotiations,” as well as “creative and constructive ideas and proposals emanating from the negotiations.” This, the Omani government was convinced, would secure the promise that Iran would never develop nuclear capabilities without causing the region to suffer the brunt of another war.

Israel and the US announced early Saturday a joint military operation against Iran, citing "threats" posed by the "Iranian regime".

Last June, the US had already struck three Iranian nuclear sites during a 12-day Israel-Iran conflict.