UAE Leaving OPEC Signals Strategic Break With Saudi-Led Oil Order

The United Arab Emirates has confirmed that it will withdraw from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the wider OPEC+ alliance, with the decision taking effect on 1 May 2026. Officials said the move followed a comprehensive review of national production policy, capacity and long-term economic priorities.

According to the government, the decision reflects the country’s evolving energy strategy and its desire for greater flexibility in responding to global market conditions.

In an official statement, the UAE said the withdrawal was guided by national interest and by its commitment to meeting global energy demand responsibly. It added that it would continue to support market stability. The announcement comes amid continuing volatility in world energy markets, including disruptions linked to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly one-fifth of global oil shipments pass.

The UAE joined OPEC in 1967 through Abu Dhabi, before the federation was established in 1971, and remained a member for almost six decades. While expressing appreciation for years of cooperation, the government stated that it was now time to prioritise the interests of investors, customers, partners and the wider energy market.

Officials also confirmed that production would continue to rise gradually in line with demand. The UAE’s output capacity is close to five million barrels per day, although OPEC+ quotas had kept actual production well below that level. The government said investment would continue across oil, gas and renewable energy, while maintaining support for long-term market balance.

The move marks the end of one of the most significant relationships in global energy. Over the years, the UAE became one of OPEC’s most influential members and its third-largest producer after Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Yet growing tensions over production limits, combined with Abu Dhabi’s plan to raise capacity to five million barrels per day by 2027, increased pressure for greater autonomy.

For OPEC, the loss of such an important member is a serious setback. At a time of geopolitical strain and unstable markets, the departure raises fresh doubts about the group’s unity and future influence. For the United States, which has frequently criticised OPEC’s role in shaping prices, the move may be viewed as strategically advantageous. For global markets already facing uncertainty, it introduces a new and less predictable phase.

The timing was particularly striking. As GCC leaders met in Jeddah on 28 February for their first summit since the outbreak of war, the UAE announced its exit almost simultaneously. While Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman chaired the gathering, the UAE was represented by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed. In Abu Dhabi, Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei denied any dispute with Saudi Arabia, describing the kingdom as a brotherly state and praising wartime solidarity. Even so, the underlying tensions were difficult to ignore.

As OPEC’s third-largest producer, the UAE’s departure significantly weakens the organisation and frees Abu Dhabi from acting as a buffer for production cuts. With capacity of around 4.85 million barrels per day but a quota of only 3.2 million, the country had long absorbed the cost of underused investment. While Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, has favoured higher prices through tighter supply, the UAE has consistently preferred higher output.

India is also indirectly affected, as OPEC restrictions apply to Lower Zakum, where Indian companies hold a 10 per cent stake.

Officially, the UAE cited its long-term strategic and economic vision, rising domestic energy production and national interest. In practice, however, the decision also reflects deeper rivalry with Riyadh over economic influence, regional leadership and competition between Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed. Abu Dhabi had already diverged from GCC policy in 2022 by signing a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement with India, followed by similar deals with more than twenty countries.

Since then, the India-UAE CEPA has helped push bilateral trade beyond $100 billion and was followed by the India-Oman CEPA signed in 2025.