Trump’s Tariff War Gives India-Russia Ties A Boost

Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar’s meeting with Russia’s Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on Thursday is a high-stakes engagement that will echo far beyond the bilateral agenda.

The conversation is taking place at a time of global upheaval triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariff war. India is being targeted for lifting Russian oil that Washington says is fuelling Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine war. Will New Delhi give in to American pressure or continue to buy oil remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, the hectic diplomatic activity between New Delhi, Beijing and Moscow in the last few weeks is also part of India’s strategic signalling to the US and a message to the domestic audience that India will not wilt under American pressure and the country’s strategic autonomy is intact.

"The global context for our meeting today is provided by the evolving geopolitical situation, the shifting economic and trade landscape, and our shared goal is to maximise our complementarity,’’ Jaishankar said in his opening remarks at the meeting with Lavrov, the second day of his visit.

While yesterday’s meeting was devoted to economics and development at the intergovernmental commission, with Dennis Manturov, the 1st deputy Prime Minister, today the focus was more on political ties and the fast-changing international situation.

Lavrov began the discussion by noting that India and Russia defined their relationship as a "special and privileged strategic partnership’’ and hoped that both sides "fully justify’’ it. He said that in his conversation with Jaishankar, special emphasis was on global affairs "as we see the emergence of a new architecture in international affairs.’’ What the detailed discussions held behind closed doors are not known, but Lavrov spoke of a multi-polar world and the importance of groupings like BRICS and SCO in the emerging international world order.

Political relations between India and Russia have always been good. As Jaishankar put it :

"We believe that relations between India and Russia have been among the steadiest of the major relationships in the world after the Second World War. Geo-political convergence, leadership contacts and popular sentiment remain its key drivers.’’

Yet in recent years, some uneasiness had crept in over New Delhi’s pivot towards the US and the Western alliance. India, too, regarded Russia’s gradually evolving ties with arch foe Pakistan with some concern. However, these anxieties were never publicly aired by the leadership in both capitals. But now, with a major spat between India and the US over tariffs, India's and Russia some of the concerns have receded. President Vladimir Putin has excellent relations with Donald Trump, and their bonhomie was on show during the recent Alaska summit. However, Putin, a former hard-nosed KGB agent, knows very well that personal ties count for little in international affairs as states look to their own self-interest. With the mercurial Trump in the driver's seat in Washington, nothing can be taken for granted.

"I think we are trying to make up for lost ground with both Russia and China. The trust with the US is gone because of the extra 25 percent tariffs and linking us to the Russian earnings which fund the war - neither China nor Hungary Turkey or Slovakia have been called out and this is being done to pressure us on giving concessions on the Bilateral Trade Agreement,’’ said Ambassador Anil Wadhwa, who is familiar with Russia having headed the Eurasia desk in South Block at one time.

Besides using the buying of Russian oil as an excuse for concessions on a trade deal, Americans do not appreciate India’s penchant for strategic autonomy. Americans are unhappy about India having a foot in both the US and the Russian camps. As former President George Bush once famously said after 9/11, "You are with us or against us".

India has consistently avoided falling into that trap, and is particularly not to join any military alliance. Russia understand India better and knows that, despite its traditional friendship, New Delhi is averse to joining any camp.

Gleb Ivashentsov, Vice-President of the Russian International Affairs Council, Moscow, explains this well :

"India is self-sufficient in the global arena, and its aspirations in one particular case or another may not coincide with the aspirations of Russia, just as, say, with the aspirations of the United States or China. The same applies to Russia,’’ he wrote in a Russian publication.

He went on to explain. "It is quite natural, for example, that the content of India’s relations with Pakistan differs from what Russia sees as essential for itself vis-à-vis Pakistan, and the specificity of the Russian-Ukrainian relations does not affect India’s direct interests. The main thing is that neither Russia nor India have ever pursued, in key regions for a partner State, a policy that would harm the geopolitical interests of the other side.’’

The fact that they would not harm the interests of the other is the basis of India-Russia relations.