Kabul On The Verge Of Running Dry By 2030

Kabul is inching toward catastrophe. It could soon become the first modern capital in the world to run completely dry, according to a recent report by Mercy Corps. They predict Kabul will run out of water aquifers by 2030 and displace its millions of residents.

The non-government organisation warns that the crisis could lead to economic collapse.

Kabul is soon to become the first modern capital in the world to run out of water completely. This crisis is predicted to lead to economic collapse in Afghanistan. 

A recent Mercy Corps report warns that Kabul, home to roughly six million people, is facing “a severe water crisis” that could make it the first modern city to “run out of water”.  As per the findings, population growth, the climate crisis, and relentless over-extraction have depleted groundwater levels, and nearly half the city’s boreholes have already gone dry.

Mercy Corps is a global team of humanitarians working together on the front lines of crisis, disaster, poverty, and climate change to create a world where everyone can prosper. 

The UN reported the results of this research on X, stating, “Water is life. Due to rapid urbanisation and climate change, there could be no groundwater in Kabul by 2030, if we do not act now.”

The Findings

The UNICEF projects that if the current usage rate of Kabul’s aquifers continues, it will dry out by 2030, potentially displacing three million residents. Kabul’s aquifer levels have plummeted 25-30 meters in the past decade, with extraction exceeding natural recharge by a staggering 44 million cubic meters annually. 

The same UN projections indicate that nearly half of Kabul’s boreholes, which act as Kabul residents’ primary source of drinking water, are already dry.

Climate change also plays a role in this Kabul crisis, as per the report. Afghanistan's climate and location make it highly drought-prone. The most recent drought, which ran from 2021-2024, impacted more than 11 million people. 

These changes in the climate have led to reduced precipitation, lack of water recharge in vital catchment areas for the aquifers and the meltwater from the snow from the Hindu Kush mountains, which acted as the main source of Kabul’s groundwater, has become scarcer by the year. 

Kabul’s groundwater levels have plummeted as a result. Between October 2023 to January 2024, Afghanistan received only 45 to 60 per cent of the average precipitation during the peak winter season compared to previous years.

Even the alternative source, groundwater, is 80 per cent contaminated in Kabul due to sewage, toxins and high levels of chemicals such as arsenic and nitrates. This contamination of the water risks disease, thus rendering this option unusable.  A lack of available clean drinking water has forced the closure of much-needed schools and healthcare facilities across multiple suburbs of Kabul.

The Expense of water

For those without access to well water, ordering water tanks is the only option. The price of purchasing water has risen astronomically, placing additional economic stress on already struggling households. 

Some private water companies have capitalised on the situation, extracting large amounts of “public” groundwater from their wells and selling it back to Kabul’s residents at vastly inflated prices. Water access issues have exacerbated tensions within communities, as families vie for access to limited water from wells and pumps. In a 2008 Oxfam survey, 40 per cent of respondents cited water issues as a primary cause of tribal and community conflicts.

International politics has also played a major role in the relief for Kabul. The reports state that the Trump administration's dismantling of USAID has already had a catastrophic impact on humanitarian programming across the country, including vital Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) related programming in Kabul and its surroundings.

Government funding shortfalls and a lack of private sector investment have also delayed critical water infrastructure projects like the Panjshir River pipeline and Shah Toot Dam, which, if completed, could help to alleviate Kabul’s water issues.

The Future

Beyond the climate crisis, population growth and mismanagement, Kabul’s water crisis is compounded by deep political turmoil.

The Taliban seized control of the country in August 2021 following the chaotic withdrawal of US-led forces after nearly two decades of war, tipping the country to the brink of economic collapse as development and security assistance to the country froze. This led to Trump’s decision to halt foreign aid.

CNN reports, the freeze in US Agency for International Development (USAID) funds is “one of the biggest impacts,” said Von Zahn from Mercy Corps. By early 2025, only about $8 million of the $264 million required for water and sanitation had been delivered.

Zahn said, “So what we’re seeing is a dangerous mix: collapsing local systems, frozen funding, and growing regional friction — all while ordinary Afghans face a worsening crisis every day.”

That leaves the future of many living in Kabul in limbo.