How Targeting Desalination Plants Could Threaten Water Security Across the Gulf

For countries across the Gulf, access to freshwater depends largely on the sea. With little rainfall, almost no perennial rivers and rapidly declining groundwater reserves, desalination has become the primary source of drinking water for much of the region. That reliance means any attack on desalination infrastructure could quickly escalate from a military incident into a humanitarian crisis.

Today, more than 400 desalination plants operate along the Arabian Gulf coastline, producing a substantial share of the world's desalinated water. These facilities convert seawater into freshwater using advanced filtration systems, supplying homes, hospitals, businesses and industries in some of the driest countries globally.

The level of dependence varies by country but is particularly acute among smaller Gulf states. Desalination provides virtually all of Qatar's drinking water and more than 90% of freshwater supplies in Bahrain and Kuwait. Oman derives about 86% of its drinking water from desalination, while the figure is roughly 70% in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest producer of desalinated water. The United Arab Emirates also relies extensively on desalination to supply major urban centres including Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Iran, by contrast, depends less on desalination because it still draws much of its freshwater from rivers, reservoirs and groundwater, although coastal provinces and islands such as Qeshm remain heavily reliant on desalinated supplies.

The strategic importance of these plants extends far beyond drinking water. Desalination facilities underpin nearly every aspect of daily life, supplying water to healthcare facilities, schools, airports, hotels, factories and commercial districts. Industrial operations, tourism and parts of the agricultural sector also depend on uninterrupted freshwater supplies. If one or more major plants were forced offline, governments could be compelled to impose water rationing within days, disrupting essential public services and economic activity.

Many of the Gulf's desalination plants are especially vulnerable because they are co-located with power stations. These integrated facilities produce electricity and freshwater simultaneously, meaning damage to power infrastructure can also reduce or halt water production. Even when desalination equipment itself is not directly hit, nearby missile strikes, oil spills or contaminated seawater can force operators to suspend production until it is safe to resume operations. Damage to intake systems, treatment units or electricity supplies can interrupt the entire desalination process.

Replacing lost freshwater capacity is far more difficult than restoring electricity. Desalination plants rely on highly specialised pumps, membranes and treatment equipment that often require international suppliers and technical expertise to repair or replace. While some Gulf countries maintain strategic water reserves capable of meeting demand for several days or weeks, rebuilding damaged facilities could take months if key infrastructure is destroyed.

Alternative water sources offer only limited relief. Much of the Gulf lacks rivers and lakes, while groundwater aquifers have been depleted by decades of overuse and declining rainfall. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested heavily in storage reservoirs, interconnected pipelines and emergency backup systems to strengthen resilience against temporary disruptions. Smaller countries such as Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, however, possess fewer strategic reserves and remain more exposed to prolonged outages.

Previous conflicts demonstrate the scale of the risk. During the 1990-91 Gulf War, the destruction of Kuwait's desalination and power infrastructure left the country heavily dependent on emergency water imports, with reconstruction taking years. Analysts say the episode highlighted how attacks on water infrastructure can have consequences that outlast active hostilities.

A prolonged disruption to desalination capacity would likely have cascading effects beyond household water supplies. Hospitals could struggle to maintain sanitation and medical services, industries requiring continuous water supplies could suspend operations, and governments might have to divert scarce groundwater away from agriculture to meet drinking water needs. In a region already facing climate stress and geopolitical tensions, sustained damage to desalination infrastructure could therefore trigger both humanitarian hardship and significant economic losses, making these facilities among the Gulf's most strategically important civilian assets.

(inputs from AP and Al Jazeera)