Canada Elections 2025: Who Will Be Next PM? | Exit Polls Project Liberals' Victory

The Canadians are deciding who will become their next Prime Minister through the federal elections held on April 28 with major contenders being Liberal Party’s sitting Prime Minister Mark Carney and his strong opposition, Conservatives and their populist leader Pierre Poilievre.

Donald Trump might as well be on the ballot for the Canadians to vote for after he pitched Canada to become the 51st state of USA. On the morning of the elections Trump wrote on Truth Social, "Elect the man who has the strength and wisdom to cut your taxes in half, increase your military power, for free, to the highest level in the World, have your Car, Steel, Aluminum, Lumber, Energy, and all other businesses, QUADRUPLE in size, WITH ZERO TARIFFS OR TAXES, if Canada becomes the cherished 51st. State of the United States of America."

Poilievre in response stated, "President Trump, stay out of our election. The only people who will decide the future of Canada are Canadians at the ballot box. Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state."

A record 7.3 million Canadians cast ballots before election day.

While the first polls opened at 07:00 EDT in Newfoundland and parts of Labrador and latest by 10:00 EDT in British Columbia including the other provinces across the six time zones in the country. The polling will begin to close from 19:00 EDT and by 22:00 EDT all will be closed.

The ballots will be counted by hand and not machines, thus the results should be known late Monday night. 

Also Read | Who is Mark Carney, The Reluctant Politician Who Became Canada’s Prime Minister?

Who Are Running For Canada PM Race?

Mark Carney, 60, is one of the two main candidates. He navigated financial crises when he headed the Bank of Canada and later ran the Bank of England, becoming the first non-U.K. citizen to do so since its 1694 founding.

Carney is known as a highly educated economist, who worked for 13 years for Goldman Sachs in London, Tokyo, New York and Toronto, before being appointed deputy governor of the Bank of Canada in 2003. He has financial industry and public service credentials.

He took office as Canadian PM in March 2025 after Justin Trudeau resigned.

Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservatives, is Carney’s main challenger. Poilievre, 45, is a career politician and populist who says he will put “Canada first.”

For years his party’s go-to attack dog, he frequently criticizes the mainstream media and vows to defund Canada’s public broadcaster. He promotes cutting red tape, boosting energy production, and reforming the Bank of Canada.

Also Read | Who is Pierre Poilievre? The Conservative Leader With A Vision Of Freedom, Economy And Resilience

There are two other parties that have official status in Parliament. If the Liberals or Conservatives secure the most seats in the House of Commons but fail to win a majority, they would need to rely on either the New Democrats, a progressive party, or the separatist Quebec party Bloc Québécois to pass legislation.

Jagmeet Singh, leader of the NDP since 2017, is the first racialized person to lead a major Canadian federal party. A former Ontario MPP and lawyer, Singh champions affordability, workers' rights, climate action, and racial justice.

Though the NDP hasn't won federal power under his leadership, Singh has played a critical role propping up Trudeau’s minority governments in exchange for policy wins like dental care expansion and pharmacare progress. Charismatic, stylish, and socially media-savvy, Singh appeals to younger and progressive voters. In 2025, he aims to grow NDP influence further, hoping to expand beyond traditional urban and labour strongholds.

Canada Elections: Poll Projections

In a mid-January poll by Nanos, Liberals trailed the Conservative Party by 47% to 20%.

In the latest Nanos poll, which was conducted during a three-day period that ended April 26, the Liberals led by 4 percentage points nationally and 6 points in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, which has 122 of the 343 seats in Parliament.

The January poll had a margin of error 3.1 points, while the latest poll had a 2.7-point error margin.

CBC network in their poll projections revealed that the Liberals are projected to win around 189 seats and have a 70% chance of securing a majority government.

While their likely range dips below the 172-seat threshold needed for a majority, it also extends to just over 200 seats.

"The Conservatives have only an 11% chance of winning the most seats, an outcome that would likely be the product of a significant error in the polls", it said.

The Bloc is likely to lose some seats, while the New Democrats are in danger of failing to win the 12 seats required for recognized party status in the House of Commons.

Challenges Ahead Of Canadian PM

Canada has been dealing with a cost-of-living crisis for some time.

More than 75 per cent of its exports go to the US, so Trump's threat to impose sweeping tariffs and his desire to get North American automakers to move Canada's production south could severely damage the Canadian economy.

Both Carney and Poilievre said that if elected, they would accelerate renegotiations of a free trade deal between Canada and the U.S. in a bid to end the uncertainty hurting both of their economies.