AfD’s Record Win In Germany: Why Mainstream Parties Are Worried

Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has moved closer to state-level power after securing a record 43.8% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, its strongest-ever performance in a state election. The party won 39 of 83 seats, falling three short of the 42 needed for an outright majority.

The result marks another major step in the AfD’s transformation from a fringe Eurosceptic party into one of Germany’s biggest political forces, while testing the long-standing political “firewall” that has kept the far right out of government.

Why Has The AfD Gained Support In Germany?

Founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party during the eurozone crisis, the AfD shifted sharply to the right in the following years. The 2015 refugee crisis gave the party an opportunity to capitalise on anti-immigration and anti-Muslim sentiment, helping it make electoral gains and eventually enter the Bundestag in 2017.

The AfD’s appeal, however, now extends beyond immigration. In eastern Germany, where the party has performed particularly strongly, economic stagnation, weaker infrastructure, dissatisfaction with established parties and a sense of political under-representation have also fuelled support.

Former Indian ambassador to Germany Gurjit Singh told The Indian Express that economic anxiety and pressure on the welfare state had become important drivers of the protest vote.

In 2024, the AfD became the first far-right party since World War II to win a German state election when it took 32.8% in Thuringia. Its 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt represents a substantial escalation.

“I wouldn’t put immigration necessarily at number one in every state that the AfD is popular because in some states … there are not so many immigrants but other issues are more important,” he told Indian Express.

What Is Germany’s Political Firewall And Can The AfD Govern?

Germany’s mainstream political parties have traditionally maintained a “firewall”, or Brandmauer, against cooperation with the far right, reflecting the country’s history under Nazi rule. The arrangement has kept the AfD out of government even when it has emerged as the largest party in a state.

The firewall has nevertheless come under strain. In January 2025, Chancellor Friedrich Merz relied on AfD support to pass a non-binding motion on tougher immigration rules, prompting accusations that a long-standing political taboo had been breached.

The AfD won 39 seats in Saxony-Anhalt, three short of the 42 needed for a majority. The CDU won 15, while the Social Democrats, Greens and Left won eight each and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance five. With the major parties still ruling out cooperation with the AfD, the party’s path to government remains uncertain.

The significance of the result therefore extends beyond one state. The AfD is already the largest opposition party in the Bundestag, and its continued gains are putting pressure on Germany’s established parties to decide whether the firewall can hold as the far right becomes increasingly electorally powerful.

AfD, the far-right party, won the election and emerged as the largest party, but it did not secure a majority and other major parties have ruled out working with it.

Gurjit Singh, Former India’s Ambassador to Germany, identifies economic concerns, worsening infrastructure and strain on the welfare system as key factors driving the rise in protest voting. “If AfD is going to keep getting popular, other parties need to learn to work with it rather than ignore it,” he said.