Climate Change May Reshape India’s ‘Superfood’ Avocado Basket, Warn Researchers

Avocado, often described as a “superfood” for its rich profile of healthy fats, fibre, vitamins and antioxidants, is steadily finding a place on Indian plates. Promoted for heart health, weight management and metabolic well-being, the tropical fruit is increasingly consumed by health-conscious urban populations.

However, new research by Indian scientists from multiple reputed institutes in the country suggests that climate change could significantly alter where—and whether—avocados can be sustainably grown in India in the decades ahead.

Published in PLOS One, the first-of-its-kind study led by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research’s Indian Institute of Horticultural Research (ICAR-IIHR) has warned that under a high-emissions, “business-as-usual” climate pathway, India’s avocado-growing zones may become unstable, fragmented and sharply reduced by 2070.

Botanically known as Persea americana, avocado is indigenous to Central and South America but has emerged as an economically and nutritionally significant fruit crop in India. Its popularity stems from its high content of monounsaturated fats, potassium, folate and bioactive compounds that support cardiovascular health, reduce inflammation and improve lipid profiles—benefits that are increasingly important as India battles rising non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, obesity and heart disease.

The researchers noted that while domestic demand and export interest are growing, the long-term viability of avocado cultivation has remained uncertain due to shifting climatic conditions. To address this, the team employed ensemble species distribution modelling—a robust approach that combines eight machine-learning algorithms—to predict how suitable avocado-growing regions in India might change by 2050 and 2070 under low, moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

The analysis factored in critical environmental variables influencing avocado growth, including forest cover, urban expansion and minimum temperatures during the coldest month. At present, Kerala and Tamil Nadu emerge as the most suitable regions, which aligns with current cultivation patterns. These southern states provide the temperature stability and rainfall regimes that avocados require for healthy fruiting.

From a health and nutrition perspective, the findings carry cautious optimism. Under low to moderate emission scenarios, the study projects a modest expansion of suitable growing areas into higher altitudes and eastern regions, including parts of the Western Ghats, eastern India and the northeastern hill states. Such expansion could help improve regional access to nutrient-dense fruits, support dietary diversity and strengthen local food systems—provided climatic thresholds remain favourable.

However, the outlook changes sharply under high-emission trajectories. If global emissions continue unchecked, suitable avocado habitats are projected to shift into scattered, high-elevation pockets that are ecologically fragile and difficult to farm. By 2070, these zones may degrade or disappear altogether, resulting in overall contraction rather than meaningful expansion of cultivation.

“Under high-emission scenarios, the apparent numerical increase in optimum area represents transient redistribution into fragmented, high-elevation zones rather than true ecological expansion,” the researchers noted. “By 2070, these fragmented patches are predicted to degrade or disappear, resulting in overall contraction and instability of suitable habitats.”

Such instability has broader health implications. Climate-driven disruptions in fruit production can affect availability, affordability and nutritional intake, especially for foods that are already considered premium or niche. As India grapples with micronutrient deficiencies alongside lifestyle-related diseases, safeguarding access to nutrient-rich crops becomes an important public health concern, according to the experts in the sector.

The modelling highlights the Western Ghats, parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, and isolated pockets of the northeastern hills as potential climatic refugia—areas likely to remain suitable even as temperatures rise. The researchers argue that these zones should be prioritised for conservation, climate-resilient agroforestry and cultivar improvement.

Conversely, central and northern India are expected to experience progressive loss of suitability, underscoring the need for region-specific agricultural planning rather than blanket crop promotion. “Low-emission development trajectories are crucial to sustain ecological stability and long-term production resilience,” the scientists emphasised.

Besides the lead author, the team of researchers included Ruchitha T., Sakthivel T. and Kavino M. from the Division of Fruit Crops at the ICAR–Indian Institute of Horticultural Research (IIHR), Bengaluru; Manish Mathur from the ICAR–Central Arid Zone Research Institute, Jodhpur; Kanupriya C. and Senthil Kumar M. from the Central Coffee Research Institute, Coffee Research Station, Chikkamagaluru; Kadirvel G. from the ICAR–Agricultural Technology Application Research Institute, Guwahati; Murlidhara B.M. from the ICAR–IIHR’s Central Horticultural Experimental Station, Chettalli, Kodagu; and T.K. Hazarika from the Department of Horticulture, Aromatic and Medicinal Plants, Mizoram University, Aizawl.