Breast Cancer Deaths Could Rise 44% By 2050, Warns Lancet Study

Breast cancer, already the most common cancer among women worldwide, is poised to tighten its grip over the coming decades, with India facing a sharp rise in both incidence and mortality, according to a major analysis published in a recent issue of The Lancet Oncology.

The study by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 Breast Cancer Collaborators estimates that in 2023 alone, there were 2.3 million new breast cancer cases globally and 764,000 deaths. By 2050, annual new cases are projected to cross 3.5 million — a rise of nearly one-third — while yearly deaths could increase by 44% to almost 1.4 million.

For India, the trajectory is particularly concerning. The country’s age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) rose from 13 per 100,000 women in 1990 to 29.4 per 100,000 in 2023 — an increase of nearly 127%. The age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) increased from 8.9 to 15.5 per 100,000 women during the same period, a rise of 74%, the analysis shows.

These figures reflect not only demographic expansion but also deeper systemic gaps in early detection and timely treatment.

While high-income countries continue to report higher incidence rates — often exceeding 100 new cases per 100,000 women — mortality rates in these nations have declined substantially over the past three decades due to organised screening, earlier diagnosis, and improved therapies. In contrast, low- and lower-middle-income countries, including India, are witnessing faster growth in new cases alongside rising death rates.

Globally, 24 million years of healthy life were lost in 2023 due to breast cancer — more than double the 11.7 million years recorded in 1990. Notably, although women in low- and lower-middle-income countries account for about 27% of global cases, they contribute to more than 45% of the total years of healthy life lost, underscoring inequities in access to care.

The study also highlights the growing incidence of breast cancer among younger women. Although women aged 55 and above still bear the highest burden — with incidence rates three times higher than those aged 20–54 years — cases among younger women have increased by 29% since 1990. In India, clinicians have increasingly reported diagnoses in women in their 30s and early 40s, often at advanced stages.

A striking finding is that 28% of the global breast cancer burden in 2023 was linked to six modifiable risk factors. High red meat consumption contributed the largest share (11%), followed by tobacco use (8%), high blood sugar (6%), high body mass index (4%), and alcohol consumption and low physical activity (2% each). Public health interventions targeting obesity, diabetes, tobacco use, and dietary shifts could therefore substantially reduce the future burden.

The authors have stressed that prevention alone will not suffice. Strengthening primary healthcare systems, expanding mammography access, ensuring timely pathology services, and making chemotherapy, radiotherapy, and hormonal therapies affordable are essential to reversing current trends.

India’s National Programme for Prevention and Control of Cancer, Diabetes, Cardiovascular Diseases and Stroke (NPCDCS) has expanded screening initiatives at the primary care level. However, coverage remains uneven, particularly in rural districts, and awareness about early symptoms — such as painless breast lumps — is still limited.

The study has emphasised that universal health coverage should explicitly include essential breast cancer services, warning that high out-of-pocket expenditure continues to push families into financial distress.

Without aggressive prevention strategies and equitable access to diagnosis and treatment, the projected surge in cases could strain India’s already stretched oncology infrastructure, according to health experts.