If. This routine conjunction in parts of speech has seldom held such political implications. What if the verdict on December 20 is.... To start with, there are two primary verdicts: Modi wins, or, upsetting all surveys and assessments, he loses. If he loses, subsequent vanvaas would make even the setback of 1995—when he was shunted out of Gujarat—a pleasant memory. Such an outcome would virtually entail the Sangh parivar kissing goodbye to its prospects at the next hustings. The Congress would robustly consider a snap poll. The gop will find fence-sitters also willing to latch on.
But is such a verdict possible? Statistically, even the strangest result is a probability, especially with someone like Modi who has almost the entire Sangh parivar ganged up against him. Some liken his situation to Mahabharata’s Abhimanyu, caught inside the chakravyuh.
But if Modi pierces the mythical ring, it gives rise to two options: either he sweeps the polls as predicted by most or barely manages to stay afloat—any tally below 105 seats (total 182) will mean a setback. This is because the presumption is that Modi faces no rivals in the arena—hence a simple majority would indicate a political defeat in the party and fraternity.
In such a case, several moustaches in Nagpur will be twirled upward and Modi’s battles via proxies within the BJP and RSS will grind to a halt. Nitin Gadkari may eventually not just survive but may also become the RSS’s choice as BJP mascot, and the others will have to fall in line silently. Modi will find most of his time consumed by rebellions and challenges within Gujarat. Nationally, the BJP will make no gains and the Congress will still examine prospects of an early election.
And what if Modi wins comfortably, yet hovers around the 2007 mark? Such a scenario opens up several possibilities but the ongoing bout of shadow-boxing will still continue. Modi, in all likelihood, will fail to wrest control of the BJP but neither will he lose ground completely. The tug of war would continue. There would obviously be no clear indication of an electoral mascot and “sources” will mention that as long as L.K. Advani is active or does not abdicate, there could be no other leader.
A status quo verdict will not give Nagpur further leverage within the parivar. Modi will also have to reconcile with hostile siblings. The Congress will have little reason to consider dissolving the Lok Sabha. The ongoing politics of melodrama will continue.
A Modi sweep—meaning significantly upward of 120—will make him unstoppable and anybody inimical in BJP will be swatted down. The RSS will no longer be Big Brother, will fight a losing battle for survival and head in the direction of becoming what its leaders claim it is: a “cultural” organisation. If he so desires, while leading the BJP charge, Modi may “hand over” Gujarat to a trusted aide, even if that be Amit Shah. Fence-sitters among other parties will veer towards Modi and Congress will look at constitutional possibilities of delaying polls!
So the Gujarat verdict will determine at least the following: Modi’s political future, equations and balance of power within the BJP, battle-lines within the Sangh parivar and the Congress’s political strategy. Modi has often said that in “politics there is never a full stop”. The verdict on December 20 will surely not be one, either for the victor or the loser. It will be the opening sequence of another chapter. With or without Modi as lead character!
Author of Demolition: India at the Crossroads, Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay is working on a Narendra Modi biography; E-mail your columnist: nilanjan.mukhopadhyay AT gmail.com
