Serbia Vs England Preview, FIFA World Cup 2026 Qualifying: Prediction, Head-To-Head, Players To Watch

Thomas Tuchel could become just the fourth manager to win each of his first five competitive games in charge of England.

Only Fabio Capello (first eight), Ron Greenwood (first six) and Sven-Goran Eriksson (first five) have previously achieved that feat.

Yet it is fair to say that Tuchel is going about it in an incredibly underwhelming fashion. England may be winning, but they are far from setting the world alight.

The latest instalment in Tuchel's underwhelming start came on Saturday, as the Three Lions eased their way to a win over Andorra.

England won 2-0 at Villa Park, thanks to a Christian Garcia own goal and an effort from Declan Rice, but that is the least that could be expected when playing a team ranked 174th in the world by FIFA on home soil.

Tuchel and England will be hoping for an improved display when they travel to Stadion Rajko Mitic on Tuesday and, with the help of Opta insights, we preview the game to see whether the Three Lions can maintain their perfect start to qualifying. 

What's expected?

England are the favourites according to the Opta supercomputer, which has run 10,000 data-led simulations.

The Three Lions came out on top in 50.3% of those, while Serbia claimed three points in 26.1%. A draw was the outcome 23.5% of the time.

This will be England's first visit to Serbia as an independent nation, with their last away game against Yugoslavia coming in November 1987, winning 4-1 in a UEFA European Championship qualifier.

Including Yugoslavia, Serbia, and Montenegro, England have won each of their last five meetings with Serbia by an aggregate score of 11-3.

However, Tuesday's clash with Serbia will present a sterner test than England have faced so far.

Serbia have lost just one of their last 24 World Cup qualifiers (W16 D7), losing 3-2 to Austria in October 2017.

Tuchel still finding his feet

While England made it four wins from four to ensure they remained top of Group K against Andorra, much was made of the performance. 

The Three Lions mustered up just 11 shots, and only one after Rice's goal in the 67th minute – they last had fewer efforts in a game against a nation ranked outside of the top 100 in March 2011 vs Wales (won 2-0 – 116th ranked).

Gareth Southgate often got criticised for a pragmatic approach when he had so many stars at his disposal, but so far, Tuchel's brand of football is not impressing, even if it is proving effective against (weaker) opponents.

England have scored eight goals across their four qualifiers, while they have registered the fourth-highest expected goals (xG), at 11.0, of any European team.

However, heavyweights like France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain have only just started their campaigns, while other big nations, such as the Netherlands and Italy, have played fewer matches.

No team has averaged more possession (78%) or kept as many clean sheets (four) as England, so Tuchel will point to the numbers as evidence of his approach working, too.

Of the teams to play more than one qualifier so far in this cycle, only the Netherlands (0.7) boast a better xG against figure than England (0.8).

England have not conceded in any of their last six competitive fixtures and could tie their longest ever run of clean sheets in such games, previously keeping seven in a row between October 1988 and October 1989 under Bobby Robson.

At the other end, with Jude Bellingham injured, and Phil Foden not included in this squad, Rice has even more licence to push forward from midfield and will no doubt offer some support to the forward line.

He has now had a hand in seven goals in his last 12 appearances for England (three goals, four assists), having been involved in just three goals in his first 55 international appearances (three goals, no assists).

Noni Madueke played in the cross from which Garcia headed in England's opener against Andorra, and the Arsenal winger finished that match with a game-leading three chances created, while he also successfully completed two of his five dribbles.

Elliot Anderson, meanwhile, impressed on his debut, settling in nicely as a midfield anchor and completing 107 of his 114 passes. He will be eager to shine again if given the nod.

Serbia looking to make home advantage count

Serbia are the only other undefeated team in Group K, having drawn with Albania and beaten Andorra in June before edging past Latvia away from home 1-0 on Saturday. 

The result was sealed by Dusan Vlahovic's 12th-minute opener, with Serbia holding on to keep a third consecutive clean sheet in a World Cup qualifier, the longest run of games without conceding a goal in the competition since at least 2010. 

Dragan Stojkovic's side have scored just four goals in their three qualifiers, though, through strikers Vlahovic (one) and Aleksandar Mitrovic (three), but have managed 48 shots in their four qualifying matches, only to underperform their expected goals (xG) by 0.7. 

Twenty of those efforts came against Latvia, generating an xG total of 1.4 compared to Latvia's 0.7 from their eight attempts, with one of those coming close to an equaliser as Renars Varslavans struck the woodwork in second-half stoppage time. 

But England will have to be wary of the experienced Filip Kostic, who ended that match with team-high totals for chances created (six) and total crosses (13), while among their outfield players, only Strahinja Pavlovic (93.3%) had a better passing accuracy in the final third than Fenerbahce man (92.3%). 

And Serbia will be looking to lean on their home advantage to try and spring a surprise against England. 

Indeed, Serbia have lost just one of their last 28 home World Cup qualifiers since September 2001 (W19 D8), losing 3-0 to Belgium in October 2012.

PLAYERS TO WATCH 

Serbia – Aleksandar Mitrovic

Mitrovic is a player England's defenders, and any Premier League watchers, will know all about, of course. He has recently switched from Saudi giants Al-Hilal, for whom he plundered 47 Pro League goals in 51 games, to Al Rayyan in Qatar.

But while the 30-year-old may be heading into the latter stage of his career in the Middle East, he is always a goal threat for his country. With 62 international goals to his name, he is Serbia's record scorer. Eight of those goals have come across his last seven starts in World Cup qualifying.   

Interestingly, in facing Jordan Pickford, Mitrovic will be going up against the goalkeeper whom he has had the most shots at during his Premier League career (24 – six on target). However, he never managed to score past the Everton shot-stopper in the competition.

England – Harry Kane

After failing to find the back of the net for the sixth consecutive game in a row for England, Kane will be keen to get back amongst the goals here. 

Tuchel defended Kane's display against Andorra, having managed just 12 touches despite playing the full 90 minutes, but the 32-year-old so often has a habit of having his say for the Three Lions. 

The England captain has scored an away goal against 15 different opponents in his international career, with only Wayne Rooney netting against more different nations in away matches (16).

The Bayern Munich forward has played at this venue before in Belgrade, having four shots to no avail for Tottenham vs Crvena Zvezda in the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League.