Can a vertically-split BJP in UP survive the Opposition onslaught in the run-up to the general elections? The election stakes are wide open, with chief minister Kalyan Singh ranged practically alone against all other state BJP leaders, and an Outlook-mdra opinion poll indicating signs of a Congress revival with a Gandhi at the helm.
Battlelines are being drawn up by the BJP—with other parties and also within itself. Early last week, residents of Lucknow and Varanasi woke up to king-sized slogans on the walls attacking all BJP leaders opposed to Kalyan Singh. The messages weren’t coy. "Get rid of Lalji Tandon, Rajnath Singh, Kalraj Mishra, before they wreck the state BJP," they proclaimed, sending shock waves through the party.
Summoned to Delhi, the chief minister offered to quit, but was stopped by L.K. Advani. Kalyan Singh returned to Lucknow more emboldened. "There is no question of taking back my decisions," he said, referring to the controversial appointment of corporator Kusum Rai as chief of the state social welfare board last month—a slap in the face of vitriolic dissidents. Commented urban development minister and senior party leader Lalji Tandon, regarded as A.B. Vajpayee’s pointsman in Lucknow: "This is a typical ruling party situation. The Congress did it in the ’80s and was wiped out."
The intensity of the split in the state BJP caused Advani to cancel his Lucknow trip, scheduled for May 16, to address office-bearers of the party. Sources say he was tipped off in advance to cancel the visit "so as to save him from a potentially embarrassing situation of squabbling partymen".
However, sweeping things under the carpet, as party leaders are aware, could be disastrous in an election year. Privately, leaders admit that if the BJP does not put its house in order, serious trouble lies ahead. Particularly as the Congress, for the first time in many elections, seems to be benefiting from an anti-incumbency factor.
The dissidents, however, are confident of the party romping home in the polls. "We are not dissidents. Our fight is against Kalyan Singh. Change him and all is well," says BJP mlc Rajesh Pandey. Says another key dissident, BJP mla S.S. Dang: "Our movement against Kalyan Singh has got nothing to do with the polls. There’s no question of sabotage in the party. We are united when it comes to our party interest."
Would such a party also include Kalyan Singh? The chief minister’s attitude has been something of a enigma. Senior leaders like Advani are backing him—some say even standing behind the powerful backward caste lobby in their endeavours. And that’s saying a lot. For Kalyan has been charting a most unusual course for a BJP man. In the last few months, he’s launched a virulent attack on high-caste Hindus, not just against his rivals, but inside the BJP as well. He was even slated to attend a backward caste rally organised by the Kashyap Samaj, Lucknow. Meant to be a frontal assault on the high-caste coterie ranged against Kalyan, the organisers were forced into a last-minute postponement of the rally.
At another rally last month, just when the dissidents’ tide seemed to ebb a little, Kalyan roared: "A good ruler is one who keeps his supporters happy and rivals quaking in their boots." He called upon backward castes to "snatch power from the privileged high castes", as the only way out. Certainly not a typical Hindutva campaign.
Party strategists say they’ll cash in on Vajpayee’s image and hope Kalyan’s anti-forward utterances, in a state where caste Hindus comprise a sizeable part of the electorate, will be neutralised by the fact that Vajpayee is a Brahmin. "But that won’t work," counters Congress leader Pramod Tewari. "High-castes know it is Kalyan’s writ that runs in UP and not Vajpayee’s."
Tewari—who has seen Congress get 83 out of 85 seats in 1984 in the state and then see it plummet to zero seats and an 8 per cent vote share in 1998—will cash in on what he says is mass disenchantment with the BJP’s performance. "Just about everyone is dissatisfied here. Whether it is the government employee or the teacher. And these are just two key segments that play an important role in the elections," he says.
Clearly, the BJP’s dissidence is likely to take its toll in the elections. And the Congress may cash in on the rebound. The party plans to cash in on their usual trump card—a campaign headed by Sonia Gandhi. Party leaders from several districts have ‘applied’ to the party high command asking Sonia to campaign in their constituencies so that the crowds keep coming.
Election results in the state are going to surprise everyone this time, says an optimistic Tewari. "I challenge the BJP to repeat its candidates. From the reports I have been getting, at least 50 of their sitting MPs are in trouble. Just look around—Banda, Rae Bareli, Sultanpur. Everywhere there is dissent." An optimistic Tewari says the Congress is likely to gain "at least 50 to 60 seats". He points out the BJP has to defend a double incumbency, one at the state and other at the Centre. Argues Tewari: "All assessments about the Congress stem from the 8 per cent vote share in 1998. But look at the Agra by-elections. We got nearly 30 per cent of the vote. And this was last year. The situation now has changed drastically."
Congress leaders cite victories in the recently-concluded elections to cooperative bodies where the BJP finished poorly, pointing out that these are barometers of public opinion. They also feel last year’s devastating floods will affect the BJP’s chances, particularly in eastern UP where relief operations were badly botched up by the state government. Congress leaders say the farmer lobby is "raring to go against the BJP".
Into this scenario enters the Mulayam factor. The socialist leader is fighting with his back to the wall. This time around, as he is well aware, anti-BJP votes will go to strong individual candidates, whichever party they belong to. Party associates say Mulayam is rattled by media reports that the minority vote—his main plank since ’89—may be tilting towards the Congress. But they are not willing to say that openly. "No one is going to leave us. The Congress has been exposed for a communal and fascist organisation," says state SP leader Ramsaran Das.
A media barrage launched by the SP last week emphasised the Congress’ new status as the SP’s enemy No. 1. First came hoardings that proclaimed Mulayam’s ‘heroic’ effort to forestall the installation of ‘foreign’ powers. Then Mulayam took an unprecedented step: an edit page article in a prominent Hindi daily from Lucknow in which he argued that the original communalists were the Congress who were in cahoots with the BJP. "How come both agree on the country’s economic policies which affects the life of millions?" he demanded.
The poll campaign is going to be nasty—if early indications are anything to go by. State Congress chief Salman Khursheed and Mulyalam are currently engaged in a ferocious polemic. And that may be just for starters. There’s much consternation in Congress circles about what Yadav may conjure up—old firs about the involvement of Congressmen in communal riots in the ’70s and ’80s in UP, or a detailed account of the party’s involvement in the opening of the Babri Masjid. This could open up a Pandora’s box for the Congress.
In this situation, the minority community has become the focus of attention, particularly for the Congress and the SP. According to All-India Muslim Forum president Nehaluddin, the front intends to put up candidates against all parties. "The so-called secular parties, that have always manoeuvred to obtain the Muslim vote in the name of defeating fascist forces, have either indirectly strengthened fascism through the lack of cohesion in their ranks or have directly allied with the BJP. The political subterfuge of the Congress, SP and the bsp has buttressed the BJP influence in UP."
Others see it a bit differently. Argues Abdullah of Nadavtul-Ulema: "This time around, people are not going to vote to a pattern. Strong candidates who can defeat the BJP in a particular constituency will be preferred to just their party affiliations." Which means that the results could be three-cornered. Optimists within the BJP, on the other hand, say that some minority votes are going to come the BJP way. Points out BJP mlc Tanvir Haider Usmani: "Atal has left his mark. Muslims say it’s now much easier to go to Pakistan, after visa regulations have been eased by the BJP government, than it has been during the last five decades. The BJP government has increased stipends for madrasas, has looked after the minority interests without making a song and dance about it."
And what of Mayawati? The bsp leader has made it clear she is not going to go along with any party. But analysts say a tie-up with the Congress could turn it into a formidable force. Mayawati is reportedly against such a tie-up because she fears her 21 per cent votebank may be transferred. Clearly the UP battleground is getting hotter.
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