Will The Wrestlers' Protest Have An Impact On 2024 Lok Sabha Electoral Outcome?

India has found itself in the middle of an unprecedented ideological warfare and the Hindu rights groups led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has emerged as a dominant party in recent years, enjoy considerable advantages. Despite its defeats in a few state elections, it enjoys an upper hand in terms of resources, and more specifically it exhibits a hunger for power, for which it could deploy any means.

Several political observers admit that India's social and political structures have undergone a colossal transformative impact since Prime Minister Narendra Modi's win in 2014. And if the BJP wins in the 2024 Lok Sabha for a third consecutive term, the impact will continue.  Therefore, how to defeat the BJP remains a key concern for the Opposition and the recently held Patna conclave has some significance. In this context, the wrestler’s protest that has been going on since January 2023 over the issue of sexual harassment could play a role. But will it be enough to defeat the BJP in 2024? While the issue has the potential to erode the popularity of Prime Minister Modi and his government, it might not be able to do so. The reason for this failure lies not in the potential of the issue or the bravery and commitment of wrestlers, but in the ability of the Opposition parties to take it to voters as a failure of Narendra Modi and his government.

Two things are clear so far going by the response of the BJP as far as this issue is concerned. Firstly, the party seems to be more interested in protecting the accused MP Brij Bhusan Singh, President of the Wrestler’s Federation of India. Secondly, the commitment of the ruling party to gender justice is very selective and dictated by its electoral considerations. Seen in this context, Modi’s silence over this issue is indeed troubling. 

Why is it that the prime minister, who has so forcefully championed the women’s cause, not just of Hindu women but also Muslim women, with his famous slogan, “Beti Bachao Beti Padhao” is reluctant to take on Singh and his party MP for the larger women’s cause? There could be many answers to this question. One is: as a politician, it is his priority to look at his electoral future and by that account, Brij Bhushan Singh, perhaps is a very good asset. Any attempt to punish Singh could backfire because Singh might switch over to another party such as Samajwadi Party(SP). It is one of the reasons that the SP leader Akhilesh Yadav has been guarded on his criticism of Mr Singh. It is the electoral calculation that has motivated the Prime Minister and his party not to respond to the player’s demand to take action against the  MP Brij Bhushan Singh. 

It needs to be underlined here that for Hindu rights returning to power in 2024 is vital as it would give the party the opportunity to fulfil several of its key pending right-wing agenda and perhaps its long-term ideological agenda of officially declaring India as a Hindu Rashtra. Among the three key founding goals of the BJP are been: removal of  Article 370, the building of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, and the implementation of the Uniform Civil Code (UCC). Prime Minister Modi has been able to fulfil the first two and effort is on to fulfil the last one. By doing so, today, Modi today stands as a legend among his ideological followers at a much higher level than Savarkar or Vajpayee. The party’s return to power in 2024 will definitely help it to fulfil all of its ideological agenda. While these issues are quite apparent, one wonders why and how the Opposition parties could help the wrestler's cause.

No doubt the sexual harassment issue, particularly against  India’s star athletes, is a  very important issue. To have this issue impact the electoral results of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, there is a need for vigorous campaign. It is obvious that Opposition parties are lacking the required commitment to this. Several of the Opposition leaders have joined the protest. Like the Nirbhaya movement, during former prime minister Manmohan Singh's United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, this wrestlers' protest has the potential to damage the credibility of the Narendra Modi government. But is it unlikely to happen? It is more than five months now and the Opposition has given only lip service. Had they been serious, this issue could have shaken up New Delhi.

Though the BJP, it is reported, believes that this protest is the handiwork of opposition parties. If it is, so what? In the end, the issue needs to be weighed based on the merit of the case. The wrestlers, as expected, have received sympathy and support from many star athletes and international organizations. But that is not enough. In my view, if justice is not done in this case, then it would be owing to the poor strategy of the Opposition. By all accounts, it is now well established that the Hindu rights regime has barely any interest in value-based politics. Instead, it is purely driven by the hard calculations of power. For power, if it means striking a compromise with the devil, be it. Such a method of politics is morally disturbing and ethically unacceptable. It seems the BJP is repeating the mistakes of the Congress. Consider the 1984 Sikh riot case in which several Congress leaders were accused of participating in the violence and Congress chose to protect them for a long time. It is still not too late for Opposition parties. The wrestlers' protests should not be allowed to go in vain, both for democracy and also for gender justice. If protests fail to accomplish gender justice, there will be then no faith in protests and no faith in democracy.

(Dr Mujibur Rehman teaches at Jamia Millia Central University. He is the author of a forthcoming book 'Shikwa-e-Hind: The Political Future of Indian Muslims')