Will The Southerly Knock His Sails?

Moopanar's revolt, probably facilitated by the DMK, has brought the Rajnikant factor once again to the fore. According to a study conducted by the Centre for Media Studies, the Tamil actor wields considerable clout and could be a deciding factor in the elections. While his formal decision to quit the political scene and the Prime Minister's move to align with the AIADMK initially brought cheer to Chief Minister Jayalalitha, the subsequent uprising by the Congress cadres and Rajnikant's spirited statement from the US came to her as a surprise. When the film industry celebrates Karunanidhi's golden jubilee on April 14, it is widely expected that Rajnikant would make a formal announcement expressing support for the DMK. Posters depicting Kar-unanidhi and Rajnikant together are already being painted. 

Moopanar's action came on the heels of the strong protest that has been raging against Rao ever since he announced his decision to ally with the AIADMK. Succinctly summarising the mood of the militant protesters, Moopanar said: "Some say on the basis of arithmetic that the AIADMK-Congress combine may not be able to make it in the elections. But I am of the firm opinion that even if it has a chance of winning, there is no justification for such a heinous combination." 

Categorical in his assessment of the AIADMK, he further observed: "The rule of the AIADMK is undemocratic, fascist, and corrupt. Everyone is yearning for a change in government. I will never tolerate any attempt to make the lakhs of cadres sacrificial lambs. I will neither take part in the election process nor campaign for this alliance." 

This is the first time that the Tamil Nadu Congress has challenged the central leadership after the death of Kamaraj. After working relentlessly against the AIADMK for the past three years and losing six MLAs to the AIADMK, the ordinary worker could never reconcile to such an alliance. 

Says Malini Parthasarathy, associate editor of The Hindu: "The high command of the Narasimha Rao era might be seeking to demonstrate that authority can still be wielded in an absolutist idiom even after the Bonapartist times of the Nehru-Gandhis. But the loud and angry 'no's that resonated in the TNCC office and the willingness of those leading this rebellion to chart a new course, which could be far more precarious and risky in personal terms but more principled in their own eyes, might suggest that authority from below could be a far more compelling factor than realised." 

The AIADMK camp is at a loss regarding the development. The exit of the Vazhapadi faction (which is now the Tiwari Congress in Tamil Nadu), followed by Moopanar's recent revolt, have severely crippled the credibility of the Congress in Tamil Nadu. Leaders such as Union Minister of State K.V. Thangabalu have no standing or following left in the state. This has left the AIADMK feeling betrayed, since it feels that Rao failed to discipline his state unit and ensure more seats than they are now likely to get under the new situation. "We have nothing to gain out of this alliance as the Congress leaders are not going to be in a position to convert their support base into a substantial vote bank. On the contrary, we may be working for our foes," says a senior AIADMK minister.

And he certainly seems right. The DMK, by announcing that it is not averse to an alliance with the Congress, has provided the much needed support for the revolt of the Moopanar faction. "With the DMK's olive branch, Rao could not say there was no other alternative to the AIADMK. The AICC has had to come out with a convoluted statement to defend its decision to align with Jayalalitha," says Mukta Srinivasan, a senior Congress leader.

The revolt has also helped the CPI stay in the DMK camp as the Moopanar faction now does not belong to Rao's Congress. And he is not alone in his revolt. Union Industries Minister K. Karunakaran is also extending tacit support to his faction.

For the first Prime Minister from the South, the South itself may prove to be his Waterloo.